Pulling Away?

There was an interesting survey done, of all the polling outfits, to see what people in the industry consider the most reliable. Near the top of the list for perceived reliablity in New Hampshire, the CNN/WMUR/UNH poll. Yesterday, this poll had Obama and Clinton tied at 33%, Edwards a solid 20%, one of the few polls that still showed a deadheat (although the trends favored Obama).

Tonight's release, done on Saturday and Sunday, provides a massive swing towards Obama:

a new CNN/WMUR poll out Sunday afternoon suggests that Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois has opened up a double digit advantage over New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

In the survey, conducted by the University of New Hampshire on Saturday and early Sunday, 39 percent of likely Granite State Democratic primary voters back Obama as the party’s nominee — that’s ten points ahead of Clinton’s 29 percent. Obama is up six points and Clinton down four points from our survey conducted on Friday and early Saturday.

Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina is at 16 percent in the new survey, down four points from Saturday. Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico is in fourth place, with the support of 7 percent of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, with Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio at 2 percent.

The poll strongly suggests an Obama surge in New Hampshire. Obama’s gaining about three points a day, at the expense of both Clinton and Edwards. Obama’s lead has now hit double digits (10 points) going into the home stretch. It’s ‘the Big Mo’!” says CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider.

"The Iowa caucus results have convinced growing numbers of Granite State voters that Obama can really go all the way. In December, 45 percent thought Clinton had the best chance of beating the GOP nominee. But in Saturday's poll Clinton and Obama were tied on that measure and now Obama has a 42 percent to 31 percent edge over Clinton on electability," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

From a deadheat, to a full 10 point lead, represents seismic movement for Obama.

On the Republican front, today's numbers are essentially unchanged from yesterday's, with McCain holding on to a 6% lead. What is changing, independent voters are now evenly split between voting in the Republican and Democratic primaries. Just last week, there was 60/40 split favoring the Democratic primary. Good news for McCain, but also indicative of Obama's growing support within the Democratic base.