Sunday, January 06, 2008

Pulling Away?

There was an interesting survey done, of all the polling outfits, to see what people in the industry consider the most reliable. Near the top of the list for perceived reliablity in New Hampshire, the CNN/WMUR/UNH poll. Yesterday, this poll had Obama and Clinton tied at 33%, Edwards a solid 20%, one of the few polls that still showed a deadheat (although the trends favored Obama).

Tonight's release, done on Saturday and Sunday, provides a massive swing towards Obama:
a new CNN/WMUR poll out Sunday afternoon suggests that Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois has opened up a double digit advantage over New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

In the survey, conducted by the University of New Hampshire on Saturday and early Sunday, 39 percent of likely Granite State Democratic primary voters back Obama as the party’s nominee — that’s ten points ahead of Clinton’s 29 percent. Obama is up six points and Clinton down four points from our survey conducted on Friday and early Saturday.

Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina is at 16 percent in the new survey, down four points from Saturday. Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico is in fourth place, with the support of 7 percent of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, with Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio at 2 percent.

The poll strongly suggests an Obama surge in New Hampshire. Obama’s gaining about three points a day, at the expense of both Clinton and Edwards. Obama’s lead has now hit double digits (10 points) going into the home stretch. It’s ‘the Big Mo’!” says CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider.

"The Iowa caucus results have convinced growing numbers of Granite State voters that Obama can really go all the way. In December, 45 percent thought Clinton had the best chance of beating the GOP nominee. But in Saturday's poll Clinton and Obama were tied on that measure and now Obama has a 42 percent to 31 percent edge over Clinton on electability," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

From a deadheat, to a full 10 point lead, represents seismic movement for Obama.

On the Republican front, today's numbers are essentially unchanged from yesterday's, with McCain holding on to a 6% lead. What is changing, independent voters are now evenly split between voting in the Republican and Democratic primaries. Just last week, there was 60/40 split favoring the Democratic primary. Good news for McCain, but also indicative of Obama's growing support within the Democratic base.

16 comments:

Steve V said...

Gallup weighs in tonight, with another poll that shows Obama up 13%, McCain 4%. These results include Sunday samples, like the CNN poll.

fourthtunz said...

The problem with any of the "debates" is that they don't give everyone equal time.
Ron Paul was the only one to talk about economics which after the debate 45% said they wished the candidates had talked more about it.
These polls by cnn and others are just ads for the top candidates.

Steve V said...

And, the second most cited issue, that people thought should be discussed more, was the environment.

I didn't mind the format for the ABC debate, most of it was loose, and you had exchanges beyond the soundbite.

knb said...

fourthtunz, I agree with Steve here. I thought the questions were lame for the most part, but each had ample time to interject and rebut.

Hilliary brought up the economy or did you not watch the Dem debate?

Ron Paul brought forth issues that I thought made some sense. His fellow Republican's saw fit to laugh at him.

How sad is the GOP?

chaos45i said...

Barack Obama is racist against Americans Hispanics as he still condones preventing them race dicrimination charges in Illinois.
It can be verified Barrack Obama as an Illinois Senator has been placed on
repeated written notice of ongoing illegal race discrimination against American Hispanics. I ,a Hispanic American, have been denied the right to formally officially file race discrimination “IDHR & EEOC” charges against Hormel Foods Corporation and UFCW at the agencies IDHR & EEOC in Illinois since 2004 when in fact other nonHispanics are allowed to file such charges of Race discrimination. Despite Barack Obama and his office having full knowledge and understanding of this serious situation Barrack Obama a civil rights attorney himself has refused to hold anyone at IDHR & EEOC accountable for their actions regarding the issue of IDHR & EEOC discriminating against Hispanic American complainants and to date Barack Obama is not investigating or even asking for any independant third party to investigate this racial discrimination citing only a separation of powers. It is unconscionable for Barack Obama to have used this device as it regards race discrimination which has effectively empowered IDHR & EEOC to maintain their illegal & discriminatory position and with Barack Obama’s inaction Barack Obama is in fact discriminating against Hispanic American constituents of Illinois. I have been reporting this information on blogs longer than he has been running for president. I wonder how he would have done in Iowa if more poeple knew the truth. And if he is truly open and honest he should tell America himself what is going on in Illinois right now!

Anonymous said...

chaos....why don't you inform the media about this? No one in the media is challening Obama and sure as hell the republicans will if he wins the leadership race.

Something about Obama bothers me - not sure - perhaps smugness. He makes me uncomfortable.

Makes pretty speeches but where is the "substance".

This is why I hate hero/celebrity worship - it's dangerous.

I noticed in the debate - when asked about attacking Afghanistan - Clinton was the only one who seemed to realize you have to be careful and consider the India and Sri Lanka tensions. She obviously knows more than Edwards and Obama put together.

In these volatile times - I think experience is key.

Steve V said...

anon

I think the reason the media isn't reporting what chaos is saying, is because it is complete nonsense.

I agree with you on Clinton, very, very strong on the issues. That said, I thought Obama did a good job on the substantive front, providing some details on several fronts.

chaos45i said...

To: steve v, The media may need to tell you what what to think but others will know it can be verified does not fall under the category of nonsense. Barack Obama is racist and I would welcome anyone who can prove what I am saying is not really happening in Illinois right now.

Chaos45i said...

And to: Anonymous

I have contacted many agencies but I would not count on them (the media)admitting that they were duped into promoting Barack Obama for so long a racist man who's message of change and unity is based on a lie. Maybe I'm wrong maybe the powers that be in the media just like covering for him. Who knows but what is for certain. Everything I have been saying since before Barack Obama decided to run for president is happening right now and no one is reporting or stopping his and others racism against Americans in Illinois.

Steve V said...

chaos

Good luck with your misguided crusade.

Chaos45i said...

To: steve v, If you are irresponsible enough to blindly defend Barack Obama for his verifiable and ongoing racism in Illinois. I would say you may share the same views of Barack Obama that all Americans just don't have the same equal rights. And if you honestly believe no one should investigate this of Barack Obama it is your misguided crusade to put this man into the most powerful position in the United States.
steve v your a typical Obama supporter all right.

Steve V said...

chaos

I'm not an Obama guy, I just think you're a crank. Sorry :)

chaos45i said...

To: steve v, Why becuase the media did not tell you about it. After your stated position on this blog Some might think your the crank. Don't you want America to have an opportunity to question Barack Obama on the validity of what I say is going on right now. To have America know Americans are being and are continued being prevented race discrimination charges in Illinois his home state where he is currently a U.S senator as we speak. It sure sounds like your an Obama guy becuase why would you not want it checked out.

chaos45i@aol.com said...

Obama's speech in NH included a new catch phrase. Yes we can!
In the same speech he talks of Nevada and equality. I would like to through his blatant atempt to sway Latino voters back at him and say
"Hispanics/latinos yes we can claim race discrimination even if Barack Obama does want us to in Illinois."
The question should be why is it not being reported? News agencies I have contacted already know Barack Obama's Message of change and uniting this country is a lie. Is it that they like the idea that Barack would likely continue to exclude certain Americans such as those that happen to be Hispanic as he currently condones preventing them race dicrimination charges in Illinois.
It can be verified Barrack Obama as an Illinois Senator has been placed on
repeated written notice of ongoing illegal race discrimination against American Hispanics. I ,a Hispanic American, have been denied the right to formally officially file race discrimination “IDHR & EEOC” charges against Hormel Foods Corporation and UFCW at the agencies IDHR & EEOC in Illinois since 2004 when in fact other nonHispanics are allowed to file such charges of Race discrimination. Despite Barack Obama and his office having full knowledge and understanding of this serious situation Barrack Obama a civil rights attorney himself has refused to hold anyone at IDHR & EEOC accountable for their actions regarding the issue of IDHR & EEOC discriminating against Hispanic American complainants and to date Barack Obama is not investigating or even asking for any independant third party to investigate this racial discrimination citing only a separation of powers. It is unconscionable for Barack Obama to have used this device as it regards race discrimination which has effectively empowered IDHR & EEOC to maintain their illegal & discriminatory position and with Barack Obama’s inaction Barack Obama is in fact discriminating against Hispanic American constituents of Illinois. I have been reporting this information on blogs longer than he has been running for president. I wonder how he would have done in Iowa if more people knew the truth. And if he is truly change; open and honest he would tell America himself what is going on in Illinois right now! It takes real nerve for Barack Obama to the concept of civil rights as motivation Talking to young people about Martin Luther King as what was fought for by that truly brave and Great man of change included all Americans. Something Barack Obama may use as a campaign tool but cleary does not understand or care about maintaining.
RM in Illinois

chaos45i said...

This is the basic text of a letter that I faxed today to Senators Harry Reid and John Kerry after hearing about his endorsement.

Notice, January 10, 2008
Regardless of the fact you US Senator Harry Reid are a longtime friend of IL US Senator Dick Durbin(as reported in the public domain). A record exists that shows you US Senator Harry Reid and you US Senator John Kerry in August 2006 were made aware by me,-------------, that presidential candidate/Illinois US Senator Barack Obama and co-chair Obama 2008/ Illinois US Senator Dick Durbin had been placed on prior formal written notice that when I a Hispanic American citizen reported incidents of race discrimination towards me by Hormel foods Corp., UFCW, and Target Corp. the agencies the Illinois Department of human rights and the equal out employment opportunity commission(for instance, but not limited to) refused and are still refusing (even to this date) to afford me, a US American-born Hispanic citizen from the state of Illinois, the same full and equal protections under title VII, initially attempted to dissuade me from filing, continues to treat me in a clear biased, unequal, and discriminatory manner, is to this date continuing to cover up their misconduct, and intentionally misrepresenting what are the known true set of facts and circumstances in my particular situation. There can be no dispute that my civil rights are continuing to be violated, because I happen to be Hispanic. When non-Hispanics are allowed to assert race discrimination unimpeded. And todayyou US Senator Jhon Kerry endorsed presidential candidate/Illinois US Senator Barack Obama. I listened to your speech Mr. Kerry. You have made your discriminatory position on what is happening to me right now inIllinois abundantly clear. Unless you US Senator John Kerry, since you have full knowledge and understanding of my particular situation, pull your endorsement for presidential candidate Barack Obama. Immediately, you will be just as accountable & Guilty of racism against Hispanicssuch as myself in Illinois and elsewhere in this country. And to you US Senator Harry Reid I ask that you put aside your friendship/loyalty to anyone such as co-chair Obama 2008/ IL, US Senator Dick Durbin in the U.S. Senate to in fact investigate this clear & ongoing race discrimination against Hispanics/Latinos in the state of Illinois and finally do your job. You US Senator John Kerry should be exposing this racism right now so other US Senator colleagues will not be able to sell out Hispanics/Latinos. As you have in this election. This is a demand that no US Senator be allowed to endorse US Senator Barack Obama for the most important office in the US, unless they are first made aware of my particular situation. And that an endorsement for presidential candidate Barack Obama such as yours, US Senator John Kerry would be condoning this form of racism.
----------------

Chaos45i in Illinois

chaos45i said...

When US Senator Barack Obama stole Caesar Chavez's slogan "Si Se Puede" or "Yes We Can" in a a self serving speech to Local 226 in Nevada he did not mention to the Hispanic/Latinos in America or in the crowd that he is condoning Hispanics in his own state of IL being prevented from filing race discrimination charges as we speak. The fact that Barack Obama will say and do anything to win Hispanic votes is bad enough but to use a man's words who can no longer fight for his people is disgusting. When Obama uses that powerful slogan of Caesar Chavez he is insulting those Hispanics that know for a fact why they can't file race discrimination charges in Illinois such as myself.
If Caeser Chavez were alive today I believe he would tell Barack Obama to his face "Yes WE (Hispanics/Latinos) Can Say Race Discrimination!"


Chaos45i in Illinois