Monday, September 08, 2008

Decima Weighs In

I've hesitated commenting on the barrage of polls, showing the Conservatives pulling away, because I was waiting on one of the staples for context. Well, believe it, Decima also shows a big move towards the Conservatives:
The Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll, which surveyed 1,000 voters across Canada last week, gave the Tories 36 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 28 per cent. The New Democrats followed at 15 per cent, with the Bloc Quebecois and the Greens tied at nine per cent.

For context, here are Decima's results from last week:
Nationally, in the latest week, the Liberals stand at 34%, the Conservatives 33%, 15% for the NDP, 9% for the Greens and 7% for the BQ.

A big swing in Ontario, mirroring other recent polls:
In vote-rich Ontario, the Liberals had 39 per cent, the Tories 36 per cent, the NDP 13 per cent and the Greens nine per cent.

Last week:
In Ontario, latest results show the Liberals leading with 47%, the Conservatives with 29%, the NDP at 14%, and the Greens at 9%. Averaging three weeks, the Liberals lead with 41% compared to the Conservatives at 30%, the NDP at 15% and the Greens at12%.

All the parties down, and the Conservatives have benefited.

Quebec:
In Quebec, 38 per cent of respondents expressed support for the Bloc, compared with the Tories at 29 per cent, the Liberals at 16 per cent, the NDP at 10 per cent and the Greens with six per cent.

Last week:
In Quebec the latest week shows the BQ at 35%, the Liberals 26%, the Conservatives 19%, the NDP 11% and the Greens with 7%. Averaging three weeks, the BQ leads with 32%, the Liberals are at 28%, followed by the Conservatives at 21%, 8% for the NDP and 7% for the Green Party.

Again, the same trend lines we've seen elsewhere.

The silver lining, clearly there is much volatility in the electorate. These types of movements are indicative of soft supporters, they can be won back, but clearly the Conservatives week long solo barrage of the airwaves has paid dividends.

Maybe it's my nature, but the "underdog" role isn't necessarily a bad position at the beginning, not particularly worried just yet. That said, lots of work to do for sure, Decima merely cements the reality.

19 comments:

Steve V said...

NANOS will release later, we'll see what they say.

ottlib said...

Hmmmm, the Conservatives gain three points, within the MOE of the last poll. So, there is a question of whether the change in the estimates is a result of an actual change or the result of polling error. Probably a bit of both but hardly the surge other polling firms have been peddling. Indeed, if that is all the Conservatives received after having more than week of advertizing to themselves you have to wonder about the efficacy of that campaign.

Steve V said...

ottlib

Can't agree here, it's a consistent shift, relative to others, especially in Ontario. And, one thing about Decima, their numbers rarely move much from poll to poll, nationally in particular. This is the biggest one week move I can remember, and given what others have said, hard to discount. HOWEVER, even if we have seen a shift, it's ridiculous to suggest in one week, that we are seeing FIRM support, it doesn't take much to sway back. Besides, Harper doesn't want talk of a majority, which says it all, so to start in this manner, might not be a bad frame.

Dan said...

The Conservatives have been advertising like crazy, and I'd be stunned not to see them be ahead. But it's really early, and not particularly relevant.

Steve V said...

dan

I think that's it, the only thing is "soft Steven" might have been effective. Good thing the Cons went back in the gutter today :) It is irrelevant, I remain entirely calm.

Jerry Prager said...

week long illegal use of the airwaves.

liberazzi said...

all the polictical news is just depressing me today. I'm reluctant to watch Duffy later.

Steve V said...

lib

Early days.

knb said...

Where Steve? The Nanos release I mean. On cpac or a general release?

Steve V said...

Coming out at 8 I think.

liberazzi said...

bad lib polls, bad obama polls, no May in the debate, the usual media trashing of dion, make it stop.

Steve V said...

Maybe not knb, Nanos is discussing old results on cspan right now.

Scott Tribe said...

I'm obviously not thrilled with these polls.. but I'm not going to get into a knot over them. It's day 2 of the campaign, not 2 days before the election.

I heard someone else make a good point that in the past, with Parliament on break, the Conservatives polling fortunes rose, but when the Parliament resumed sitting or scandal/bad news popped up, Con numbers would drop. That person believes this was a mini-version of this, with all those warm and fuzzy ads that were unchallenged on TV for a week. We'll see.

Steve V said...

Scott

I don't think that's the dynamic, because the Libs were fine in the summer polls, no evidence of the summer lull. I think it's the ads, Harper seizing the agenda.

I'm not in a knot in the least, but it's good to know where we stand. I've heard more than one reporter say these polls aren't what Harper wants to see, couple that with his reaction, and it could well be true.

liberazzi said...

i think i heard on cpac that nanos will release his poll on thursday and i usually get a facebook notice before he does and i havent received one yet.

Steve V said...

Thanks, they pumped it up early that NANOS would review results tonight. They just forgot to mention they were from Aug 28 :)

Scott Tribe said...

Steve:

Did Nik Nanos say anything about a poll release on CPAC, out of curiousity?

I actually wrote him a letter today enquiring when their next set of polls were out, since he's acknowledged as the supposed leader in polling fortunes. Not that I'd discount every other poll if his were different.. but it would be interesting to see.

You're probably right about the ads, (though it distresses me a tad that 3 ads showing Harper being all warm and fuzzy in a sweater would sway more Canadians to vote for him).. It sorta looks like the "Convention Bounce" we see the US political parties get when they have an uninterrupted convention week.

ottlib said...

The increase in the national estimates for the Conservatives is within the MOE of last week's poll so it is statistically insignificant. The ads had very little effect on Conservative support.

This poll contradicts the polls from last week regarding Conservative gains. However, it does back up those polls with regard to Liberal slippage.

The real question is why did the Liberals drop six points in one week? That is the question we should be asking.

As for the Regionals, take them with a large grain of salt. These very same polling companies that release regional polling data with MOEs exceeding 5% would not be caught dead doing so for clients looking for market research. If they had estimates with MOEs exceeding 5% they would suppress them before giving the final results of a survey to their clients.

Industry standards for market research is around 3.5%. Any more than that is considered an unacceptable level of error. That is why polling companies have a minimum sample of 800 respondents but usually prefer at least 1000.

ralphb said...

Dion is right on to call Harper and the defecit friendly neo cons LIARS. When was the last time that they didn't leave a deficit? Harris? No. Eaves? No. Mulroney? No. Bush. No. Thatcher? No.
The Trickle Down (their leg) theory doesn't work. If you give the rich a tax break, they invest overseas, not creating jobs locally. If you you give a rubby money he spends it locally and it gets respent 4 times before it's sucked out of the economy. Liberals run surpluses , Conservatives (hidden) deficits.
As far as if the world price of oil and gasoline will change if Canada tries to keep some of the big oil's money in Canada it won't change one iota. Our oil gets refined in Houston...and 90 % of a miniscule tax will be paid for by Americans who consume 10 times more gas than us. Do you think all the independent gas haulers are going to raise their price when they cross the border? No. They're going to sell to whoever bids on it. It's an open market.
As far as accountability and tax neutrality, Dion has asked our most senior watchdog (previously a conservative darling) to oversee it and verify that is revenue neutral.
It's about ime we the middle class and lower got a break and saw some of the profits of our natural resources spread around to ourselves and to act as an economic stimulus.
Also, Green businesses create jobs. Why should building a TV be considered a plus to the economy and creating a park, a drag on the economy. They both supposedly contribute to our quality of life.