Monday, September 15, 2008

Poll Roundup

It would appear that the Conservatives have peaked for the moment, the "sweater" starting to fade, as a new batch of polls come in.

NANOS had the gap down to six points nationally, with growing NDP strength, particularly in Quebec:
Conservative Party 37% (-1)
Liberal Party 31% (+1)
NDP 18% (+1)
Green Party 9% (NC)
BQ 6% (NC)
Undecided 20% (-1)

Note, the very large undecided vote. Harper's personal numbers have dropped, well off the high water mark he attained last week.

In Ontario, NANOS has the two parties essentially tied, with the NDP showing a gradual uptick, up to 17%, a full 7% rise in a week. In Quebec, the Bloc is at their lowest total for a NANOS poll, a mere 26%, tied with the Conservatives, the Liberals close behind at 23%. Good news again for the NDP, another high water mark of 17% (up 7% in two days). In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are back out front, up 6%, the NDP well back.

Decima, which had a staggering 17% Conservative lead now has it down to 11% (14% yesterday):
Nationally, over the last four days, the Conservatives lead with 38%, followed by the Liberals
at 27%, 16% for the NDP, 9% for the Green Party, and 8% for the BQ.

Interestingly, Decima includes leaners, with no real undecided vote. I suppose the good news, the Conservative lead is clearly waning, although it's still sizeable. Optics wise, and this may be why the Conservatives were playing down the polls, it does create the impression of a tightening race, which is a positive media frame for the Liberals.

What is particularly striking about Decima, the "women" vote has essentially flipped, from previous polls done in the pre-writ period. For all the other parties, the percentages are fairly constant, but the Liberals lead of 10% is now a Conservative lead of 5%. The Liberals must regain the advantage, if they have any hope of victory.

EKOS haven't released their poll numbers, but they do have a seat projection today, based on the most recent results. EKOS gives the Cons 147 seats, Libs 71, Bloc 49, NDP 40 and Greens 1. EKOS shows no Conservative breakthrough in Quebec, although they do show gains in Ontario, Atlantic Canada and British Columbia. A strong minority, but again down from the last seat projection.

The NDP is starting to get some traction, if these polls continue to show some momentum, then Layton can take advantage with more favorable coverage. While the Conservatives are waning slightly, the Liberals haven't really benefited, and there is a danger of the "second place" narrative taking hold, which is obviously the last discussion the party wants.

The "Harper peaked too early" meme is a bit premature, but if we see more indications, then that storyline might get some play. Stay tuned...

14 comments:

Joseph said...

Thanks for the round-up.

On the campaign front, Dion had a very forceful response to the Harper statements about the markets today, which I quoted in your last post ; ).

Also, the Liberals just announced their next English speaking ad, which is quite good. I hope it gets lots of play, particularly in Ontario. The tone is steady and confident and direct, even including Flaherty's Ontario's negative comments discouraging investment in Ontario.

I hope this is the start of a more aggressive, yet mature, campaign.

Steve V said...

I LOVE that ad :)

Steve V said...

Here it is, for anyone who hasn't seen it.

Turn the Page

Steve V said...

On the optics angle, this is what you want to see from the media:

"Poll suggests Conservative lead softening"

Anonymous said...

It's a wonderful ad. The Quebec ads are also neat. What I like about the Liberal ad strategy is that their web design and TV ads are a seamless whole. Neat.

P.S. Harper is a leader.

Anonymous said...

Baird got ripped apart by a bunch of ole ladies on callin show on cpac at 11 am....they called him every name is the book...fabricator...beligerent..showoff...partisan hack...etc...it was really good...granny

Steve V said...

anon

Sounds like must see TV :)

Anonymous said...

I don't know why Nanos even bothers to break out Atlantic Canada. The sample size there is so ridiculously small that it is to be disregarded - and of course seeing all of the west as one category doesn't tell me much since BC is so different from the Prairies and the numbers are so skewed by Alberta.

I tend to only really pay attention to Ontario and Quebec.

Steve V said...

anon

Agreed. The only thing, all the polls have shown a change in AC, relative to what they showed before, so small sample aside, it's something to consider. Same for B.C.

Antonio said...

Steve, the fact that Ekos is predicting the Bloc pick up seats in Quebec is just a complete misreading of their own poll.

Just to be clear, the Bloc is going to get decimated, even the Liberals will pick up seats off them barring major disaster...

yes, its that bad...

Antonio said...

As for the Quebec ads,

The one with the young woman saying

"Stephen Harper is a great leader? Allo?"

is in my head followed up with

"Yea cuz Stephane Dion is really the guy we Quebecers want as Prime Minister, Allo?"

they wont make a dent.

As for the english one, I agree. Liberals should keep reminding Ontarians what Flaherty said.

Just keep Bob Rae out of the ads...

Miles Lunn said...

Certainly it does seem they are tightening, the Tories are especially dropping off in Quebec, whereas the Bloc Quebecois is pretty much flat lined there. I should note all parties have been putting out more ads in Quebec than elsewhere so maybe that is paying off.

I also think the change is a reaction to the gaffes last week as it usually takes a few days before the effects become noticeable since people need to think about what has happened, rather than just change their views on the whim. That being said, I think the Tories would rather see their numbers fall now than later.

As for the Liberals, the problem is none of the announcements are getting on the front page of the papers. It is only the NDP and Conservatives, so they need to find a way to get their policies out. Also, long articles explaining them in detail are great for politicos like ourselves, but they don't work for your average undecided voter. The need to get their message out in 10 second bytes as those who read the whole articles are largely those who follow politics closely and have probably made up their mind one way or another.

burlivespipe said...

As Steve has repeated numerously, Quebec is a huge key here. While no tide yet, when you head into the debates that's fertile territory, especially if you've established some fresh credibility and trust. Both those areas are achilles for Harper.
I'm sure Antonio will do a spit take, but Dion has an opportunity to connect in the french language debate - despite all the past chatter, and some of that 'disliked' stuff is just that, Quebeckers are fairly open to both the liberal and fellow Quebecker's message. Especially with their faith in the sovereignists waning (real or overstated)...

Steve V said...

antonio

Anyone, you should know better than anyone, predicating the Bloc is going to get "decimated" is very pre-mature. Wait until it gets close, and don't forget Duceppe in the debate, he's done it before. The Cons still have one pesky problem, people don't agree with them on most of the core issues, so that means hesitation. The Bloc could still be the fallback, and from what I've seen in today's polls, the Cons are stalled, the eroding Bloc vote is looking elsewhere.