NANOS had the gap down to six points nationally, with growing NDP strength, particularly in Quebec:
Conservative Party 37% (-1)
Liberal Party 31% (+1)
NDP 18% (+1)
Green Party 9% (NC)
BQ 6% (NC)
Undecided 20% (-1)
Note, the very large undecided vote. Harper's personal numbers have dropped, well off the high water mark he attained last week.
In Ontario, NANOS has the two parties essentially tied, with the NDP showing a gradual uptick, up to 17%, a full 7% rise in a week. In Quebec, the Bloc is at their lowest total for a NANOS poll, a mere 26%, tied with the Conservatives, the Liberals close behind at 23%. Good news again for the NDP, another high water mark of 17% (up 7% in two days). In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are back out front, up 6%, the NDP well back.
Decima, which had a staggering 17% Conservative lead now has it down to 11% (14% yesterday):
Nationally, over the last four days, the Conservatives lead with 38%, followed by the Liberals
at 27%, 16% for the NDP, 9% for the Green Party, and 8% for the BQ.
Interestingly, Decima includes leaners, with no real undecided vote. I suppose the good news, the Conservative lead is clearly waning, although it's still sizeable. Optics wise, and this may be why the Conservatives were playing down the polls, it does create the impression of a tightening race, which is a positive media frame for the Liberals.
What is particularly striking about Decima, the "women" vote has essentially flipped, from previous polls done in the pre-writ period. For all the other parties, the percentages are fairly constant, but the Liberals lead of 10% is now a Conservative lead of 5%. The Liberals must regain the advantage, if they have any hope of victory.
EKOS haven't released their poll numbers, but they do have a seat projection today, based on the most recent results. EKOS gives the Cons 147 seats, Libs 71, Bloc 49, NDP 40 and Greens 1. EKOS shows no Conservative breakthrough in Quebec, although they do show gains in Ontario, Atlantic Canada and British Columbia. A strong minority, but again down from the last seat projection.
The NDP is starting to get some traction, if these polls continue to show some momentum, then Layton can take advantage with more favorable coverage. While the Conservatives are waning slightly, the Liberals haven't really benefited, and there is a danger of the "second place" narrative taking hold, which is obviously the last discussion the party wants.
The "Harper peaked too early" meme is a bit premature, but if we see more indications, then that storyline might get some play. Stay tuned...