Monday, September 29, 2008

Tracking Polls

All three of the tracking polls today have the Liberals with the identical national score of 26%. Decima leads with "Liberal Brand Shows Some Resilience", and shows the gap down to 10% (15% two days ago), the closest we've seen in close to two weeks. Interestingly, EKOS also releases it's poll, and it too shows the narrowest gap since the election call, at 8% today. The NANOS poll is virtually unchanged from yesterday, although the gap moves from 9% to 10% today, but still much better than the earlier days results of a 14-15% lead.

Overall, some sense of a complete Conservative stall, real erosion in Quebec, which makes any talk of a majority more unlikely. The NDP momentum would appeared to have stalled for the time being, and Liberals should be encouraged to hear Decima's representative scoff at this notion of a race for second, simply because that talk is a real distraction. The Liberal uptick, should help blunt that media narrative, which is an obvious positive if we hope to get some real traction.

The gap is still quite daunting, but there are now glimmers and the doom and gloom coverage should wane. Even if the numbers stabilize now, strong debate performances could get us to manageable numbers by the end of the week, and if that were to occur the last week would be a real frenzy. A quirky potential reality to remember- if the Liberals were to get back to 29-30% by week's end, that would appear relative strong, even though it's still less than pre-writ numbers, we would see this bizarre sense of momentum. I've always believed that, complete meltdown aside, if the Liberals can appear viable to voters in the last days, there will be a natural return of some soft support, we've seen it before.

21 comments:

liberazzi said...

Would have liked to have seen another percentage increase, but I will take the stability. It shows that yesterday was not a blip. Like you said if we can get it to around 30% by the end of the week, then the game is afoot, otherwise its over.

Anonymous said...

Celebrating 26%! Is this what it's come to?

The Liberal Party's all-time worst result was Turner's 28% performance in 1984.

It is almost certain than Dion is going to do worse.

Pathetic. Bring on the leadership race.

liberazzi said...

Anon:

Relax. We are not celebrating 26%, we are thankful that the slide appears to be over and we are looking forward to an upswing. I would say that the electorate is still volatile, so I wouldn't say anything is certain, only the MSM think that.

Steve V said...

anon

Oh come on now. What I'm arguing here, is it's important for the Libs to start to show they are climbing from the low water mark, earlier in the campaign. Some breathing room from the NDP is essential to look viable and blunt Jack's claims. If you listen today, you don't hear how bad the Libs are doing, you hear that they have narrowed the gap in recent days, it's all about the framing, if you want to get some traction. Like I said, if the Libs can get up to 29-30% by week's end, which is entirely doable, then it's all about "Liberals coming home" and the media will change their tune.

Steve V said...

lib

It's obviously volatile, and I'll use the big swing after the sweater ads as proof, unless of course people are dim enough to think that represents solid support.

Just to add, some pretty hard hitting Liberal radio ads running today in Ontario, with the requisite reminder of Flaherty's comments :)

liberazzi said...

Steve,

WK (the not quite sure which side your on guy), has Iggy's text of his speech today which is quite excellent.

Also, like you pointed out even Decima has pretty much the same results. Of course CTV has it pretty much buried, but at least they reported it.

Yes, if we can get the soft Libs back then at least we can make it close.

Constant Vigilance said...

Good news. Keep the faith if the Liberals can be seen as gaining mo into next week then it can only get better.

As a parent I know that I have been swamped with back to school stuff all September. It is the same for all parents. Once non-political type have a hard look they will see where their interest lies. I hope.

If this turns out to be the case, a lot of that Con support could just be placeholders for people who really haven't thought it through yet.

liberazzi said...

I see Harper is handing out another one of his vote bribe/gimmicks today that will amount to pennies to the average person, but it sounds good I guess. Pathetic.

Dame said...

Well I Think anything is possible after today and when the muck actually started to trickle down....

what if ... the investment funds show up near empty?/
like pension funds ...RRSP funds ???

marta

Steve V said...

Today was amazing, and most of it because people are playing politics down south.

Skinny Dipper said...

I'll be watching the poll results after the debates.

Anonymous said...

Media bullcrap...Conservatives surge as printed in the g&M ...all the polls have them at 36....Ndp surge by decima from 19 to 20....why am I reading this crap. I guess because I am hoping everyone else will see what I think I see in Stephane and it is ALL GOOD.

Steve V said...

anon

Here's todays G and M title:

"The race is far from over: poll"

dipper

I agree.

stupitazz said...

I really hope you are not counting on Stephane Dion's oratory skills (esp. in English) to count for any sort of bounce in the polls. Maybe send Iggy or Rae, like recent campaigning.

Steve V said...

Well the nic works for you. Don't you remember the debate where Dion beat Iggy and Rae??? I do, underestimating is a good thing.

Anonymous said...

Dion's logic is pretty solid. He can make and dismantle arguments better than any of the other party leaders. I imagine that Harper and his handlers are a lot more worried about the debates than they are letting on.

At the same time I doubt Dion is anywhere near as worried. I think he knows what he wants to say, and - better yet - he believes in what he says.

I could be wrong - Don Martin of the Sun chain seems to believe that Harper is going to use him like a toy for the whole time. Perhaps, I guess we'll see - but as far as I feel right now I'm not too worried about Dion's chances in the debates.

Anonymous said...

Maybe Harper and Layton will debate each other and treat the others as the irrelevancies that they are.

Steve V said...

anon

Yes, because the guy that finished third in 275 ridings last election is clearly the primary threat. Too funny.

burlivespipe said...

Dion's appearance on Tout Le Mond (sic - sorry, my french is non existante!) has received good to very good reviews. The french debate receives little talk here on this side of the cultural divide, but I truly believe that is a position where 2-3% can be gained. Quebecers have a habit of backing a native son; that and the fact that general impressions of the Liberal leader are based on negative attack ads and the opinions of others, means that if he can connect, there are votes to be had. Quebec has the largest pool of undecided voters percentage wise.

Anonymous said...

"Quebecers have a habit of backing a native son;"

Didn't seem to work for Jean Chretien

Miles Lunn said...

I would be very surprised if the Liberals actually got below 25% on election day. I think a win is very much an uphill battle, but it is at least plausible, even if unlikely. I also think a Tory majority, while still plausible, is highly unlikely. The only way I can realistically see them pulling one off is if voter turnout is quite low say under 60%. Since the older population tends to have a better turnout than the younger population and the Tories are strongest amongst this group, that is really their only hope left at this point. A good voter turnout will pretty much ensure they don't get a majority