Saturday, September 13, 2008

Sing It From The Roof Tops

I can't think of anything more powerful, to counter Harper's disingenious framing of a carbon tax, than a Conservative government commissioned study. Others have already commented, but let me just add my voice, this is a "moment" if we focus and make it one. Nevermind what the study says, the fact it is being supressed speaks VOLUMES.

Shove it DOWN THEIR THROATS:
The report supports a carbon tax as an effective way to make significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and concludes that a $50/tonne tax on carbon would have an insignificant impact on the Canadian economy and would open tremendous economic opportunities. The model estimates this carbon tax shift would cut emissions by about 36 megatonnes (MT) by 2010, 59 MT by 2015 and 114 MT by 2030 (Table 3).

The study, undertaken for Natural Resources Canada by M.K. Jaccard and Associates (MKJA), calculates the impact of carbon taxes of between $10 and $250 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) beginning in 2006 and applied throughout the economy at a single rate.

concludes that the GDP impact of a $50/tonne tax shift is less than 0.1% of GDP per year until 2010, is virtually zero during the next five years and is then positive after 2015 (see chart below).

Further, the report projects net financial savings to those who take action as a result of the tax shift, after taking into account the investment in emissions reductions. At $50 per tonne, that windfall comes to $13.8 billion by 2010 and climbs from there (see chart below).


An added kicker, apart from complete hypocrisy, the Conservatives ADMIT their plan would impact the economy at 0.4% of GDP. You have suppression, you have a government report, you have a Conservative plan which is more burdensome to the Canadian economy. You have it all, sing it from the roof tops, everywhere and by everybody.

22 comments:

Gayle said...

Any media actually covering this?

Steve V said...

I found one in depth piece.

Joseph said...

It's being covered because Elizabeth May brought it up.

Shouldn't the Liberals speak up as well.

(And by that, I mean before the debates as there are a couple of weeks still ; ).

This is good news, but the Liberals need to run with it.

I see a nice ad piece for an aggressive yet factual approach.

Anonymous said...

Steve - so glad to see you on this. That link from the Ottawa Sun is a keeper. I found this earlier and sent it out to family today, some of whom are nervous about this tax shift proposal of Dion's. Can you update the post and place it more prominently so others can copy and paste and email it. What makes it so great is that it is so short and to the point. It ends with May unabashedly referring to the Green Shift with this quote referencing the whole idea as a tax shift, of all things! :)

- "(Harper) hasn't read the research his own government has commissioned," she said. "This report makes it very clear that tax shifting does not hurt the economy."

Another good one that I want to find and email is the quote from Dion last week where he refers to this concept in six words and then reduces Harper's to two - no plan. Maybe tomorrow.

-Blackstar

Jeff said...

Good for the Greens for digging this out. It also suggests why Harper wanted to block May's participation in the debate (even though he says that Conservative votes won't leak to the Greens). She has been following Canadian environmental policy for decades, and in 60 seconds, she could punch a big hole in the Conservatives' climate change policy.

sassy said...

happy dance anyone?

wilson said...

This is old news, and has been debunked by many in 2007 amd spring of 2008. That's why it is being ignored:

Here is the 'secret study revealed' in June 2007

http://darinotte.blog.ca/2007/06/21/secret_government_study_backs_50_carbon_~2495336

and the challenges to the report:

http://www.progressive-economics.ca/2007/06/27/deconstructing-jaccard-and-the-green-party/

http://www.financialpost.com/analysis/columnists/story.html?id=a586f95c-502b-462e-99e3-c17a0c0b9fed&k=91878&p=1

Jerry Prager said...

Wilson: O, the Financial Post, you mean one of the Black Lord's minions deconstructed the report and rewrote its verdicts to beat in unison with Conrad's Dark Heart ?

Steve V said...

"This is old news, and has been debunked by many in 2007 amd spring of 2008."

Debunked? By who, the TD Bank, the CD Howe Institute, the CONFERENCE BOARD OF CANADA, BMO Capital Markets, the Sauder School of Business, the seventy economists in BC that wrote in favor.


Hello in there!

burlivespipe said...

But maybe it's part of Harper's own evil-genius plan to 'income trust' on the carbon tax, telling the conned electorate three months after winning his castle 'apparently a carbon tax is the way to go'... oh right, the guy secretly believes Barney Rubble and henny youngman walked the earth together.

JimmE said...

'sup? this ain't getting covered:

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS – WEEK ONE ROLL-UP

EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008
TORY LEAD OVER LIBERALS DROPS 8 POINTS IN FIRST WEEK OF CAMPAIGN

HIGHLIGHTS

National federal vote intention: CPC 36%, Liberal 26%, NDP 19%, Green Party 11%, and the BQ 8%.

CPC vote has been declining steadily over the past week:

- Monday - 39%

- Tuesday - 37%

- Wednesday - 35%

- Thursday - 34%

Please note that the methodology and detailed tables of these and other results discussed in this release are provided at the end of this document.

[OTTAWA – September 12, 2008] – The Conservatives have been slipping back from majority government territory, according to new daily tracking numbers from EKOS Research, with much larger sample sizes than other polls.

Using an average sample of over 1,000 Canadians each day this week (including last night) for an overall roll-up of roughly 5,000 cases, the EKOS poll shows the Tories in gentle decline from majority back into minority territory. Equally important, the initially formidable advantage over the second place Liberals has been cut in half in the first week of the campaign (from a 15-point lead on Monday to a 7-point lead as of Thursday).

In the same time period, the Liberals have shown modest strengthening, as have the Bloc Québécois and the Greens. NDP support, on the other hand, has remained flat.

"We have seen this pattern before," said Frank Graves, President of EKOS Research Associates. Whenever the Conservatives start to edge into majority territory, it seems some voters pullback and re-consider their intentions."

"The remarkable story of this election so far is that the Conservatives surged in the week before the election – the kind of movement you usually see only after the campaign has officially begun," he said. "What's happening now is that they are slipping back to something closer to the norm over the last couple of years."

liberazzi said...

Yup, the media is ignoring it and the dopes in the war room are not pushing it so far.

Gayle said...

Maybe they are waiting until tomorrow, since few people pay atention over the weekend.

liberazzi said...

I think Harper's comment about a Con nation is the opening the Libs need and should be played up large today. I was more offended last night when i read this, but now I am thinking that this is Harper's first real gaffe. I believe it is getting a negative reaction from the public as well.

Joseph said...

Yes, it would be nice to see a rapid response from the Liberals on Harper's comments, wouldn't it?

But nope, not a word as another news-cycle of two slip by. I guess to allow a bit of a breather to let it hang in the air.

Unfortunately, I don't think that's strategy. I think it is another sign of campaigning by checklist. This wasn't expected so no response is given because it wasn't on the list for Sunday, Sep 14.

Same goes for the Liberals not adding comment to May's forcing the issue on Harper's suppressed positive carbon shift report.

Overall:

- I think the EKOS poll is good news.
- I think the fact that all the media sees fit to print is the conservatives "cusp of majority" polls is nearly criminal.
- I think Liberals have been rolling out some damn good policy and presenting it well (to the limited audiences who are exposed to it)

However, I will continue to stay negative until I see some signs the Liberals are actually running a responsive and aggressive campaign instead of just plodding from day to day and event to event.

Call me still waiting.

Steve V said...

joseph

It's a cookie cutter campaign, and we seem behind the curve, relative to others, on certain things. We don't seem very nimble, and the whole campaign reeks of an old school, tried and true, approach.

Anonymous said...

http://therealnews.com/t/ There is a five minute news video regarding Canadian elections and climate change here; scroll down a little and on the right.

-Blackstar

Joseph said...

James Travers column is quite good today, cautionary without being shrill:

http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/498572

After a couple days of negativity, I will offer my most optimistic take on this.

Perhaps the Liberals recognized all along that Harper and Layton would come out boldly, and perhaps in doing so reveal the themes they plan to carry through the election. They also assumed in that first week they would see what up-the-sleeve proposals might come out, if Harper planned on some out the gate "game-changer." They also recognized that Dion would need to do a couple of basic things: Show he wasn't shying away from the Green Shift (hence the first ad and the retrofit program announcement), assure Quebec (hence the visit there and an ad against Steven Harper's leadership - new and quite good), shore up Atlantic (visit there), and assure immigrant populations (big part of BC visit annoucements).

Perhaps they figured he would start with those basic tasks and let the other parties make their bold moves and sweeping statements. Perhaps they even wanted to see what the media narrative would be.

Then, as people really begin to get engaged, the real campaign would begin. They know where they plan on going, but allowing everyone else to charge out in week one would allow them to focus better on the key points they need and spend the ad money and free media time more wisely.

There, that's as positive as you'll see me be until I see a new life in the overall Liberal campaign.

(In fact, I'd ad that I would say that if I were the Liberal strategists even if the reality is they were just plodding through the checklist ; ).

The important thing is they need to step it up, and they need to do it now.

Anonymous said...

Classic example of media navel gazing - that is my take on the Jim Travers article. I agree with the second commenter, gonzo, who correctly states that dion won the leadership contest because the other contenders had serious problems and I would add to that comment, that this is the very same media that attacked those other three frontrunners without mercy. I paid attention to the leadership contest from beginning to end and Ignatieff was savaged both by the press and by a very large contingent on the centre-left of the political spectrum. I supported him initially, and I was very disappointed in the reception he got, but realized, as did many others, that Dion does not have these problems. Don't think for a minute that this would not be happening now to Ignatieff or Rae - the constant barrage of attacks, that is.

Dion does not have these problems. That is why the Conservatives are going after his leadership skills, just making stuff up. This is patently untrue and demonstrably false. Dion must have good leadership skills. He has brought a divided, angry party together and led them to accept the environment as the main plank in the platform. This can't have been easy but it was done. There is no avoiding the Green Shift. According to the real news video above, it ranks third on the list of issues something like 80% of Canadians consider very important and I believe the economy and healthcare are # 1 and 2. So, Dion, with the Green Shift, has united the party on a platform that proposes to address two of those and you can't tell me that our health won't improve noticeably if the environment is cleaner.

On top of that, he is rolling out very solid policy that addresses real Canadians' concerns in the arts, immigration, women's issues, minorities and more in the last week.

It is past time to get behind this man and the rest of the team. My chief concern is for the environment and I see that alot of Canadians feel as I do. They want something done. We cannot let Harper and Layton get away with painting Dion as something he is not and worse, painting this tax SHIFT as a carbon tax. That is what they are doing, leaving out the tax CUT part when they mention the tax on pollution. All we hear is carbon tax, carbon tax - what does that tell voters, that Liberals plan to raise taxes, which is not true, the taxes will be shifted from one thing to another. They also always use this phrase - carbon tax. Why? Obviously, because they would sound irresponsible and even criminal if they admitted they do not want to tax pollution. They like pollution. They want corporations to be able to continue to pollute freely, with no penalty. You can't even play hockey in Canada without penalties and you can't tell me these guys didn't play hockey when they were boys. Oh, or maybe they didn't?? I understand Harper having this idea but Layton? I don't know how he can be so duplicitous as to propose progressive ideas and then sidle up to these Conservatives.

-Blackstar

Anonymous said...

But Joseph - I agree with you wholeheartedly! The Liberals do need to step it up. Now is the time to be assertive.

-Blackstar

liberazzi said...

The next two weeks or less, will decided the campaign. Time to get cracking.

Tony said...

Good Job! :)