One additional poll, which does a detailed analysis of key Quebec ridings, shows the Conservatives dreams of a breakthrough are fading fast:
A poll released yesterday by Léger Marketing indicated the party might not win any more seats at all.
If the results are too be believed, the Cons will lose a cabinet minister and Fortier is in big trouble. Another interesting note, in the Decima poll, when Bloc supporters are asked for their second choice, the Cons have fallen to an abysmal 5%, down from as high as 34% since the election began (the Liberals the second choice of 21%). Bad numbers, and little evidence of growth potential, it would appear opinion is firming up against the Conservatives in Quebec.
Speaking of growth potential, this from Decima:
The Liberals have considerable room to grow, as they are the second choice of 44% of NDP voters, 37% of Green Party voters, 38% of Conservative voters and 21% of BQ voters.
This brings me to what I think is the important aspect of today's polls. There is real evidence that the NDP are pulling back from their high water mark, especially in Ontario. Decima has them life and death for 3rd with the Greens, all of the polls have them well back. It would appear the NDP's platform has done absolutely nothing for their prospects, if anything we see some pullback, even with urban women, a clear target with the childcare initiative. Maybe outdated socialism isn't the answer afterall.
Now that the Liberals are getting some real distance from the NDP, and this media inspired battle for second is evaporating, Layton's talking point ringing hollow, it allows for a more focused choice. This is step one, if the Liberals do have a chance, the electorate must see a clear alternative, if they hope to use this potential for "growth". In the dying days, if Layton is a distant third, then some of the second choice vote could move to the Liberals (it's happened before). Ditto for the Green support, but this only happens if the Liberals stand apart.