Conservative Party 38% (+1)
Liberal Party 31% (-1)
NDP 14% (+1)
BQ 9% (NC)
Green Party 9% (NC)
Undecided 19% (NC)
A 5% lead yesterday, is now a 7% lead today. For the first time I can remember, NANOS has the Conservatives nearing majority terrority. Note the high undecided, and also some tidbits from NANOS that should be monitored moving forward. A full 60% of voters aren't firmly committed to any party, a fact which speaks to potential volatility. Further, in Quebec, voters are least likely to vote on leadership, most likely to vote for the party closest to their ideas, most likely to vote strategically to stop a party from getting "elected". Those results should bring some caution to any Conservative who thinks Quebec will bring them to the promised land.
As for EKOS, the headline for their poll is the erosion of the Conservative vote. While the Conservatives still enjoy a substantial lead in the four day rolling, the gap has narrowed to 7% for the last day of polling:
National federal vote intention: CPC 36%, Liberal 26%, NDP 19%, Green Party 11%, and the BQ 8%.
CPC vote has been declining steadily over the past week:
- Monday - 39%
- Tuesday - 37%
- Wednesday - 35%
- Thursday - 34%
Unless some miraculous happens today, the Conservative average number of 36% will drop tomorrow, as the older results are bumped off. The trend line might suggest the Conservatives have peaked, and this week hasn't been particularly good for their prospects. That said, EKOS had a huge lead, so the narrowing still leaves a decided advantage. Interestingly, EKOS shows a 3% drop for the Conservatives in Ontario since yesterday, down to a statistical tie- expect the numbers to change further tomorrow.
For the Liberals, both pollsters show potential trouble in British Columbia, as the party is now a distant third. Probably good timing for Dion today, he clearly has to stop the bleeding.