Thursday, September 18, 2008

Nice Lines

I'm still not sure what to make of this Strategic Counsel swing riding poll, but it's the only one today, that shows much of anything in terms of trends. For the first time in this format anyways, the Liberal have an edge in battleground Ontario, which is supported elsewhere. So much for the Bob Rae theory:
“It's where the Liberals want this thing to go,” said Peter Donolo, a Strategic Counsel partner. “The story now is about what the hell has happened to the Tory lead in these key battlegrounds.

The Liberals have 37 per cent popular support in the 20 Ontario ridings with the closest margins of victory in the last election, compared to the Conservatives at 35 per cent.

In Quebec, there is now a three-way race between the Conservative Party, the Bloc Québécois and the Liberal Party in the battleground ridings, although the situation is fluid and varies between Montreal and the rest of the province.

Overall in Quebec, the Conservatives have the support of 27 per cent of the respondents in the selected ridings, compared with the Bloc and the Liberal Party at 26-per cent each.

British Columbia no change, although NANOS shows the Liberals rebounding.

For the last few days, we've seen a consistent erosion for the Cons in Ontario, the Liberals coming back to pre-writ levels. All this prior to Ritz, common sense suggests it has more potential impact in the coming days.

One other tidbit, moving forward. NANOS was unequivocal, his polling showed the Liberals still have the most potential for growth, far outpacing a real Conservative ceiling (the temporary sweater spell notwithstanding). If week two was the team, week three has to be the outreach, the Liberals must pull some Green and NDP support.

10 comments:

burlivespipe said...

Oh-oh, warning bells are ringing in CON War Central. Time to break out the chain-mail sweater vest...

Gazetteer said...

Wow.

Looks like it just may be two elections in a row where discerning BC voters will actually have a reason to vote strategically (ie. because it may make a difference).

Anonymous said...

Leger came out.

Sample of a thousand.

Leger is as good as it gets in polling Que.

It says the opposite of the small sample battleground poll for Que.

Tories gaining, Liberals declining.

The Battleground poll is garbage.

liberazzi said...

It's a status quo election so far. Layton and May have run good campaigns but, but it hasn't equated into a real bump in the polls. We shall see what the Ritz factor will be, but every other bad news story for the Cons has had little effect. Dion I believe has done a decent job and the "Team" stategy I believe has worked to some extent this week. Dion is who he is, so it was smart to work on the strength of the team and to do the policy a day strategy.

I think you are right, as we discussed last week, that it is time to go after those "tree huggers" ;). That is where the growth will come. However, keep with the team and keep working in Chretien. Chretien's comments are the top story on NNW, so they should think about working him in some more. He would have cleaned the floor with Harper eh?

sassy said...

oh and another thing

Chretien jogs Harper's memory

Anonymous said...

The lines from Decima are not so good today - they have the Liberals tumbling to 25% (same as Ekos).

So far, all that Elizabeth May seems to have accomplished is to create a party that takes about an equal number of votes from the Liberals and NDP (if anything more form the Liberals than anyone else) while leaving the Tories unscathed. She claims that she went into politics to stop Harper - so far all she is doing is helping to give him a majority.

To all those Liberals who promoted her and her party to be a competing brand to the NDP - "Dr. Frankenstein, you have created a monster".

liberazzi said...

Anon:

The Green support is soft. Like I said it is still pretty much a staus quo election or at least no Harper majority. Check out Calgary Grit...

Anonymous said...

You'd think "team" would be very important to voters.

Afterall, look at Harper's non-team and their efforts:

Lunn - isotope fiasco
MacKay - Min of Forgeign Affairs failure - put at Min of Nat Def...not doing so well there either.
O'Connor - Min of Def - disaster
Bernier - Min of Foreign Aff's - disaster
Ritz - Ag - disaster
Ambrose - Environment - disaster and Baird following in same direction.
Strahl - not too bad
Vic Toews - Min is Justice - disaster now: Nicholson...not doing so well.

Can't think of others at the moment.

A good leader - delegates and delegates to people who can handle files on their own.

Anonymous said...

The latest numbers from Nanos (you know the one all these Liberals were hailing as the "gold standard" just a couple of days ago) also show a tumble in Liberal support to 28% and the Liberals being steadily eroded by the Tories and NDP in Ontario since their one good night earlier in the week.

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