Harper on October 7th:
"...some great buying opportunities out there...I think there are probably some gains to be made in the stock market. That's my own view."
I wonder if any Canadians took Harper's wise advice? Let's say you did, where would you be now? Well...
TSX 9829(Oct 7)
TSX 7734(Today)
Drop of 2095 points(21.3%)
You'd be in deep doo doo, that's where.
Good call Mr. Harper. I hope you took you're own advice :)
8 comments:
Steve,
Bit early to be making such judgments. I maintain that the TSX will improve over its October 7th status within the next 10-50 years. Patience is a virtue. Long term patience is an even greater virtue.
(Also, if I had more than minus many dollars, I would buy all sorts of oil and gas stocks right about now - it's a winner, you'll see)
yeah cuz you always cash in investments in a month or two cuz that will give the best return-right?
Pffff. Idiot.
olaf
Not a bad call :)
anon
Oh the irony in the "idiot" crack. You sound just brilliant.
Hey Steve,
I've been reading your posts, as always, but not commenting as often ; ). However, your insights are just as wise and on point as they always are.
This is off-topic, but I know you've conducted a lot of conversations about polling in the past. During those conversations, I know the idea has been batted around about the pedestal on which polls are placed, even though they sometimes appear to be a bit manipulative in how they are presented and promoted (i.e., they are used to drive a narrative rather than report on one).
With that in mind, I thought you might get a kick out of an article about a Zogby poll commissioned by a far-right player which has been "called out" by the guy who runs www.fivethirtyeight.com. After some hemming and hawing, it appears Zogby is backing away from the poll that appeared under their name.
Here is the link: http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081120/pl_politico/15829
This is just one example and it is a post-election poll, but it is good to see some scrutiny and skepticism starting to creep into the public consciousness.
I also find it interesting that it is bloggers who are doing the pressing and questioning, not the main stream media.
I'm more convinced than ever that "political leanings" corrupt some polls. In both the Canadian election and the US election, somehow vast discrepancies in the polls essentially vanished in the closing days. We're supposed to believe that is because pollsters were finally able to get a crystal clear handle on things as the election drew to a close. I suspect it was a sudden removal of their hands from the scales so they could still claim some validity as pollsters before the election results laid bare the leanings they had until then used to push headlines throughout the campaigns. If all the major polls can be within 2 or 3 points 3 days prior to an election, there is no reason for them to have varied 12 - 15 points a week prior (which was not unusual in the US election).
At any rate, in case you were interested, thought I'd pass the article along.
Cheers.
Joseph
Thanks for the link. I've actually referenced Zogby before, as an example of a pollster that massaged his numbers at the end of a race, to get in line with other pollsters, maintaining credibility. In 2004, Zogby did a rolling poll of NH for the Dem primary. This was when Zogby was the poll darling. All the polls showed Kerry well ahead of Dean by double digits heading down the stretch, with the exception of Zogby who showed a tight race, Dean actually maintaining the second last night before the vote. Zogby's reputation was on the line, his numbers looked out of whack, so what happens on the final night of his rolling poll? Kerry suddenly gets an unbelievable surge, completely unfathomable for a rolling poll, 10% change in ONE day. The numbers reeked, now Zogby back in line with the other polls. Election comes, Zogby is fairly accurate, his reputation in tact.
That was the most blatant manipulation I've seen, Zogby cooked his numbers on the final night, it's that simple. Never trusted him since, so...
That is interesting.
A lot of the details are a blur in my mind now. But reading your comment reminded me that Zogby pulled the same stunt this year in the Presidential race. 2 or 3 times during the last week of the race, he released his poll (apparently he's the only major one who releases in the middle of the night so typically the first reported in the morning) with some drama headline about McCain closing the gap. I think on Friday prior to the election, he showed a 3-point gap for Obama (with an "even" poll in the final night which he touted and ended up headlining the Drudge Report website). Yet over that final weekend, Obama's lead managed to rapidly expand so by the election day his poll was back to showing Obama at plus 7 or 8, happily aligning with the actual results.
So, yeah, sounds like standard operating procedure there. There were so many other examples at the time, but Zogby was one of them for certain.
Hey Olaf, guess Harper's tying his investment advice to his greenhouse gas commitment. 50 years and you'll come out a winner! I'm wondering tho, with his dilection for lifting quotes and ideas like a nimble Casablanca pickpocket, if he pulled that prediction out of his dresser's pocketbook. Doubt John Howard would be buying.
The TSX and the Dow will both be under 5000 by the end of the year. Oil may go to $25.
Some great buying opportunities!
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