Someone once told me, a provocative title helps draw attention. Hi there :)
In all seriousness, upsets of biblical proportions aside, Obama is set to win tomorrow, the electoral margin the only item in question. Everyone will articulate elaborate reasoning's as to why Obama beat McCain, but in my view, it all comes down to a few simple facts, and some timely turns in the road.
I look at a state like Virginia as representative of a national dynamic. Whether Obama actually takes the state tomorrow is largely irrelevant to my point, it's really the reality there that extrapolates to a wider theme. Obama has FOUR times more campaign offices in Virginia than McCain. Obama's television expenditure in Virginia is SEVEN times that of McCain. Obama's GOTV organization absolutely dwarfs anything McCain can muster. All of those factors, which are mirrored in other key states, come down to a fundamental truth, Obama has the money, McCain simply doesn't. Obama's decision to opt out of public financing, leaving McCain hobbled, is the real story behind the story. Had that development not occurred, I suspect we would be in for a long night, the outcome nowhere near as certain. One caveat, despite the fact McCain made a crucial error in accepting public financing, it is noteworthy that Obama was able to inspire so many, 3 million Americans, who gave between $25-100 to his campaign.
Some of my friends, are saying they expected this outcome all along, it was never really in doubt. I would argue, that despite all of Obama's advantages, despite this being the year of the Democrat(the party set to make gains everywhere as voters turn on everything with a hint of an attachment to Bush), despite the charisma, the desire for change, all the intangibles working in his favor, in the final analysis, his victory is partially attributable to good fortune.
It was only a few weeks ago that McCain was actually ahead in the polls, ahead in the key battlegrounds, the only time he had the advantage during this entire race. The Palin choice looked advantageous, I seem to remember Democrats and the media befuddled, McCain was in stride, the Obama campaign in full regroup. Now, some would argue that Palin wore thin, it was inevitable that the selection would come back to haunt McCain. I'm not so sure, that view was clearly helped by unforeseen circumstances, circumstances which acted as a cold shower on the entire electorate, shaken to the core. When the stock market went into crisis, you will see a clear co-relation in the polls, you will see it was here that Palin's folksy charm morphed into unproven ditz. Everything became deadly serious, the superficial pre-occupation of American politics evaporated, and attention was pointed. In that environment, Palin was entirely unattractive, while McCain's weakness was exposed, the Obama campaign quickly seized the moment to re-calibrate the message of change, using the economy to bring people back to their senses. You see, it was always Obama's year, but it was getting lost in the tabloid journalism, nobody should make the mistake of giving voters too much credit. However, when gigantic heaps of dung hit the fan, people got scared, people actually focused, and Obama regained, never to look back. I wonder the outcome, had the meltdown not occurred, for all the advantages, sometimes and unfortunately, a candidate's fate is dependent on some fortuitous development. In my opinion, the stock market crash was the key factor in this election, wherein everything changed, then crystallized.
Whatever the factors, one thing is clear, America will be in a better place Wednesday, than they have for a VERY LONG time. It would be a good morning to buy stock methinks :)