Saturday, November 01, 2008

Out Of The Starting Gate

Angus Reid, last election's most accurate pollster, sent me their first Liberal leadership finding, which is somewhat useful in a limited way. All the candidates imaginable are polled on favorable/unfavorable ratings, broken down into overall voters and Liberal voters. It's hard to draw any conclusions on somebody like LeBlanc or McGuinty, because people don't know enough about them, to have an informed opinion. However, when you look at known quantities, namely Ignatieff and Rae, you find something to chew on.

Fav/Unfav/Unsure:
Iggy 30%...34%...36%

Rae 30%...44%...26%

McKenna actually scores best, but he's out, so... Manley is 30%/30%, 40% unsure.

Quite a contrast between Rae and Ignatieff. Of note, no contender scores above 34% on favorability, but Rae is the clear loser on unfavorability. The above show solid apprehension, without much room to grow, a fact which speaks to Rae's baggage. A partial explanation, a full 89% of those polled view "experience as an economic manager" as important in making a decision on leadership.

When those that voted Liberal in 2008 are asked, Rae again comes up short.

Fav/Unfav/Unsure:
Iggy 51%...23%...25%

Rae 48%...31%...21%

Of note, the numbers for Manley here are somewhat more relevant, since Liberal voters may have greater familiarity. Iggy is plus 28, Rae 17, Manley only 18.

Back to the principles, Rae lags behind with both sets of voters, the general public and the Liberal voters.

Ignatieff's numbers aren't great, particularly with the general public, but they are pretty impressive compared with Rae. It would seem Rae must overcome some firm opinion to be a viable candidate, whereas Ignatieff still enjoys plenty of space to make an impression with voters. I would equate Rae's negatives, with Dion's in Quebec, ignore at our own peril. That said, EARLY days, but something to think about moving forward.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

RE: Manley,...I regret to say this, but I may as well, if I could, vote PC. He is to the right. I am a centrist a little to the left

whopitulia said...

Heavenstomergatroid, are we polling the leadership race already?!!

What about the shag-ability poll someone suggested? How do the frontrunners rate on that?

Anonymous said...

How did LeBlanc do? Justin T?

Steve V said...

9% fav, 19% unfav, 71% no opinion. In other words, Dominic who? Nothing on Justin.

who

It's really too early for a poll, except for the two principles, provides a starting point.

Anonymous said...

Chretien stayed out of Iraq which required good judgement. The party needs someone with good judgement as much as smart and telegenic.

Anonymous said...

I am beginning to hope that Ignatieff can just win this thing quickly so that we can move on (and hopefully be stronger for it).

Mushroom said...

"am beginning to hope that Ignatieff can just win this thing quickly so that we can move on (and hopefully be stronger for it)."

A more articulate academic who has a tendency to be a media whore. Puh-leeze.

Joseph said...

I get your point, Mushroom, but I'd much rather the next leader be a little more friendly with the camera so a little media-whorish isn't necessarily a bad thing.

And if they're smart, even better ; ).

Anonymous said...

Silly time again it seems. Why bother to poll Justin T at all...he has stated outright that he IS NOT running. Hey, the guy needs some experience.

It makes me wonder if we're going to go through this nonsense of young hero worship garbage again. Young counts first....then act like he/she is a hero. Look where that got us.

It's time to be mature about this race.

Like it or not Mushroom, Ignatieff gets standing ovations when he does speeches. Going swimming with Mercer in the nude hardly counts as charisma. Rae does have a personality and a sense of humour, but he also can be petty and pouty.

And, how far left would Rae bring the party? Liberals have always done well in the centre.

I think there's a danger in thinking McKenna or Manley would be the magic - looking for the easy route won't cut it.

Why don't people just wait for the annoucements of who is running and not running for sure before getting all worked up on speculation?

Lyn

Mushroom said...

"And, how far left would Rae bring the party?"

I am concerned that it may not be left enough to my own liking. The NDP and the Greens are better attracting $40 cheques from progressives than we are. If we can't get many people excited about the Grit brand, then we deserve to struggle big time.

Steve V said...

mushroom

That works both ways, the Cons seem quick capable of getting small donations, and it ain't from the left. I don't think political spectrum is a pre-requisite on ability to fundraise, you just have to stand for something that appeals to a certain subset of the population. The Libs can be successful in this regard, whether it be left, center-left, or smack dab in the middle. Get an identity, then appeal.

Anonymous said...

"Get an identity"... precisely. Our leader reflects who we want to be. Ignatieff wants to be PM almost as much as Harper. But is this enough.

Anonymous said...

Why would Liberals select a leader who will be 70 years old when the next election occurs. If he wins he's a 1 termer at best and if he loses Liberals face another leadership fight and third party status. Makes no sense.

Möbius said...

RE: Manley,...I regret to say this, but I may as well, if I could, vote PC. He is to the right. I am a centrist a little to the left

All you lefty voters really helped the LPC in the last election.

Manley may lean to the right, but at least that's where the votes are.

Möbius said...

The party needs someone with good judgement as much as smart and telegenic.

And someone "electable". Don't forget that.