Out Of The Starting Gate

Angus Reid, last election's most accurate pollster, sent me their first Liberal leadership finding, which is somewhat useful in a limited way. All the candidates imaginable are polled on favorable/unfavorable ratings, broken down into overall voters and Liberal voters. It's hard to draw any conclusions on somebody like LeBlanc or McGuinty, because people don't know enough about them, to have an informed opinion. However, when you look at known quantities, namely Ignatieff and Rae, you find something to chew on.

Fav/Unfav/Unsure:

Iggy 30%...34%...36%

Rae 30%...44%...26%

McKenna actually scores best, but he's out, so... Manley is 30%/30%, 40% unsure.

Quite a contrast between Rae and Ignatieff. Of note, no contender scores above 34% on favorability, but Rae is the clear loser on unfavorability. The above show solid apprehension, without much room to grow, a fact which speaks to Rae's baggage. A partial explanation, a full 89% of those polled view "experience as an economic manager" as important in making a decision on leadership.

When those that voted Liberal in 2008 are asked, Rae again comes up short.

Fav/Unfav/Unsure:

Iggy 51%...23%...25%

Rae 48%...31%...21%

Of note, the numbers for Manley here are somewhat more relevant, since Liberal voters may have greater familiarity. Iggy is plus 28, Rae 17, Manley only 18.

Back to the principles, Rae lags behind with both sets of voters, the general public and the Liberal voters.

Ignatieff's numbers aren't great, particularly with the general public, but they are pretty impressive compared with Rae. It would seem Rae must overcome some firm opinion to be a viable candidate, whereas Ignatieff still enjoys plenty of space to make an impression with voters. I would equate Rae's negatives, with Dion's in Quebec, ignore at our own peril. That said, EARLY days, but something to think about moving forward.