Thursday, April 16, 2009

EKOS: Liberals Would Win 130 Seats

The new EKOS poll shows the Liberals with a decided advantage, a full 10% swing in support since the last comprehensive poll done in mid January. What was a 3.5% lead for the Conservatives is now a 6.5% lead for the Liberals:
Liberals 36.7%
Cons 30.2%
NDP 15.5%
Greens 8.1%

Some of the regionals have large MOE's, but it's noteworthy that the Conservatives trail the Liberals in every province except... well you know. I admit I find it hard to believe the Liberals are up 8% in Sask/Man, but EKOS also shows a statistical tie in British Columbia/Terr and the MOE is a respectable 6. Other polls have shown hinted at movement to the Liberals in British Columbia, with the large sample size, this internal might be indicative of something.

EKOS confirms recent trends in Ontario:
Libs 42%
Cons 32%
NDP 15%
Greens 11%

The last EKOS poll had a statistical tie, so again we see further confirmation of a big move to the Liberals in Ontario. This large gap must really depress the Conservatives, because their new strategy in recent months has been to court Ontario, making nice with McGuinty, now that Quebec is lost.

Speaking of Quebec, again the same sort of numbers from EKOS:
Bloc 40%
Libs 33%
NDP 12%
Cons 11%

That is a disasterous number for the Conservatives, and before apologists fluff it off, it's not the first time we've seen that low water mark in recent polls. A very strong number for the Liberals, by comparison the last EKOS poll had us at 21%.

The news is just as bad for the Conservatives when the question turns to party leaders, with Ignatieff scoring an impressive 50% approval (plus 6% from January), Harper 38%(plus 3), Layton 37% (down 7). Factoring in disapproval numbers, Ignatieff is plus 22%, while both Harper and Layton are minus, 16 and 9 respectively. In the last EKOS poll 35% had no opinion of Ignatieff, with this one the number is down to 21%. Ignatieff has a wide gap on this measure, coupled with the party support percentages, it's a powerful concoction. For Layton, more evidence that his image has been tarnished. For Harper, a known quantity, devastating.

EKOS also provides their seat projections, and they translate the numbers to a strong minority for the Liberals:
Libs 130
Cons 98
NDP 29
Bloc 51

What's really interesting, the Bloc maintain their seat total. If the Liberals could cut into Bloc support, well, dare to dream :) That aside, it's hard not be optimistic with those numbers.

Just one poll, the usual disclaimers, but the trend is very clear and with each successive result, the picture looks better and better.


Don't Tase Me, Bro! said...

Interesting numbers in terms of seat projections in Ontario; I was making a prediction the other day on the exact same questions and got exactly what Ekos predicted: Liberals 65, CPC 32, NDP 9.

One other point. 40-44% of the vote should translate for the Grits to at least 70 plus seats. However, back in 2004 (when the Liberals won 75 Ontario seats) the Tories just came together as a party and their vote was not as unified as it is now. I think if these numbers hold up in the next election, 65 seats would be about right because some Tory ridings that were Liberal then would stay Tory because their vote will hold.

KNB said...

They project that Mulcair will lose his seat. Awww.

Don't Tase Me, Bro! said...

Yeah, and most likely to Martin Cauchon if he returns to politics.

KNB said...

I wonder if he'll run?

Steve V said...

Wow, it was pretty funny listening to Andrew Coyne just now, actually try to spin those numbers on government approval as pretty good for the Conservatives. Yes, 49% disapproval isn't bad, especially when a whooping 38% approval. And, this is one of Canada's leading pundits.

Steve V said...


Don't forget our 1 seat projection in Alberta! Harper's riding? ;)

Don't Tase Me, Bro! said...

Not likely, since a tree could win in Calgary. I'm hoping if we win a seat in Calgary, it's Rob Anders.

If in Edmonton, then maybe Edmonton Centre, East, or Sherwood Park?

Steve V said...

You know I was joking right? If anywhere, it would have to be Edmonton. I just hope we do snag a seat.

One thing about the BC numbers, it seems the recession is just starting to really bite there in recent weeks. The convention can't hurt either, it just can't.

liberazzi said...

It is actually good that the Bloc are not struggling as well, because then they will not be afraid to pull the plug, along with the Libs probably in the fall. Although, I hear that the Libs still want to hang in there until next spring.

Steve V said...

That's a great point. I've heard that "spring" rumor too. Someone posited, that in the absense of detailed policy, we'd be wise to carefully announce star candidates for the next election in the next few weeks and months, because that gives a sense of direction. I like that as a strategy, but it also gets us ready faster.

Anonymous said...

Certainly looks like a good trend. Harper does seem to be reaching the point of diminishing returns, thank Goodness. The mask seems to have slipped off for some voters.

Regarding BC, it will be interesting to see how the numbers hold up after the Provincial election out here.

The election here is far from over, but the BC NDP support has receded substantially from its high-water mark last fall so the BC Liberals - on paper anyway - appear to have a good lead in the polls.

The basic sense I gather is the Province isn't exactly thrilled with Gordon Campbell, yet they still trust his government's management of the Province more than that of the Provincial NDP.

Personally, I'm just irked the Provincial NDP seems to be all over the place with policy. I keep telling people I ought to be a target audience for them, but I just don't trust anything they say. They seem to be against anything the BC Liberals have said or done with 2 majority governments, until they sense they've struck a nerve in which case they quickly retreat. On more than one occasion they have condemned a current policy or program, then turned around and explained they wouldn't actually change or cancel the program they just condemned. It's like they want to use current programs as examples or "themes," but don't want to be on record as committing to actually changing anything. I just can't stand the deception and/or slipperiness of such an approach. It very much plays into the perception of politicians who will say anything to win.

Long aside, I know. My point regarding your post is I think the Federal Liberals are perhaps benefiting from the relative strength of the Provincial BC Liberals in the current provincial election, despite the fact that the BC Liberals are not really affiliated with the Federal Liberal Party.

Gayle said...

Edmonton Centre could go Liberal again. It is not like the CPC have acutally done anything for Edmonton.

As for Coyne, I think his point really was that Harper's whole style turns people off, and I agree. We want adults running our country, not people who engage in the childish antics we have seen from this government. Ignatieff has presented himself as a clear contrast.

I even love that Wilson and her ilk refer to him as "Iffy". I hope they keep doing it - it just exposes how stupidly childish they all are.

Blogging Horse said...

130? Pfftth. That's NOTHING!

Paul Martin was supposed to win 290!! What happened to the days when Liberal predictions were obscene instead of just absurd?

Besides, before we start counting seats, doesn't Ignatieff have to stop propping up Harper on vote after vote first?

Anonymous said...

Four in Sask??? Who will they be?

Goodale, Evatt Merchant over Rob Clarke, Chris Axworthy over Vellacott, and David Orchard in Prince Albert?

This is almost as good as 1993!!!

Also please list the number of Con cabinet minister who will lose their seats.

Éric said...

My own seat projection for this poll would be:

Liberals 139
Conservatives 97
Bloc Quebecois 52
New Democrats 19
Greens 1

Steve V said...

"doesn't Ignatieff have to stop propping up Harper on vote after vote first?"

Dude, don't you get it, that CRAP isn't working? Keep it up though, works for us :)


Put up a link to your site.


It seems from the recent data, that the recession is just now really hitting hard in BC. Interesting to see how that affects the numbers moving forward.

Éric said...

"Put up a link to your site."