Thursday, July 09, 2009

Holding Pattern

The new EKOS poll is pretty bland, confirming a pretty static dynamic that will probably hold all summer. Statistical tie seems to be the order of the day with recent polls, this EKOS result shows little movement:
Libs 32.2% (32.2%)
Cons 31.8% (31%)
NDP 16% (16.2%)
Greens 10.7% (11.5%)

The Liberals still hold a good lead in Ontario, according to EKOS. 39%, 34%, 15%, 12%, not terribly different from the last poll. Graves uses one of my terms to describe Ontario voters- "vacillate".

In Quebec, it would seem the Liberals are settling in just over 30%, a minor pullback from their earlier highs. EKOS actually gives the Conservatives relatively good numbers, and it's been consistent. This time it's 16.2%, not good, but better than hovering around single digits. Of note, EKOS gives the NDP their lowest support number since the election, at a meger 7.5%, running fifth in the province behind the Greens.

Graves makes a comment about Ignatieff's courtship of Alberta, and concludes that his efforts "have gone nowhere". Silliness aside, about any breakthrough scenario, I'm not sure I'd catergorize a doubling of support, relative to the last election as "nowhere". "Barely relevant" seems a more apt description now.

All in all, ho hum.... Spring 2010 looks more and more the realistic election timing.


√Čric said...

What is more interesting is an Angus-Reid poll that was just released, giving the Tories 36% to the Liberal 30%. It's a week old, though.

Steve V said...

Particularly Ignatieff's numbers, just doing a post now.