More Of The Same

The new EKOS poll, with a large sample size, shows the Liberals regaining a very slight edge, primarily as result of the Conservatives falling support in Ontario. In what is becoming a noteworthy dynamic, the Conservatives seem to gain temporary support whenever the threat of an election or crisis looms, only to fade under normal conditions. Nationally:

32.2% LPC
31.0% CPC
16.2% NDP
11.5% Green
9.0% BQ

The Liberal vote is virtually unchanged, but the Conservatives dropped 4%. With nothing really newsworthy since the last poll, I think you can chalk this up to the election threat. I seem to recall similar upticks in the past year, of varying degrees, whenever any sort of parliamentary crisis arose. The uptick also seems to be largely an Ontario consideration, which then wanes when the threat passes. In this instance, the last EKOS poll had the Conservatives up to a statistical tie with the Liberals in Ontario. The latest offering returns to a more common theme in recent months, Liberals steady and back out front:

Libs 38% (38)
Cons 32% (38%)
NDP 16.5% (14%)
Greens 13% (19%)

In terms of the volatility in Ontario, more evidence that the vaciliation is between Liberal lead and deadheat, which translates to a pretty solid starting position for the Liberals in a campaign.

Elsewhere, not much real change. Liberals doing well in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, Conservatives in the west.

In a testament to national numbers being somewhat deceiving, Eric at ThreeHundredEight gives the Liberals 125 seats, Conservatives 106, NDP 26, despite the "dead heat" appearance.