The national numbers show a noticeable Conservative uptick, Liberals stagnant, NDP still showing poor results where it matters:
Cons 34% (30%)
Libs 33% (34%)
NDP 15% (16%)
Much of the Conservative gain comes in Ontario, where SC shows them retaking the lead. SC also shows a slight Conservative rebound in Quebec, although nothing to get excited about.
Cons 43% (35%)
Libs 39% (44%)
NDP 11% (10%)
A pretty sizeable shift, and this pollster gives the Conservatives their biggest lead in months. The Liberal number isn't out of line, relative to other recent findings. Not necessarily a bad result, but it's more striking when you see such a high Conservative percentage. There is clearly a very real volatility between the two principle parties. What doesn't seem volatile, the consistent poor showing for the NDP. This number looks on the low end, along with the recent NANOS poll, but overall we don't see the NDP touching their 2008 numbers.
In Quebec, we see a widening gap, the Bloc clearly out front:
Bloc 44% (37%)
Libs 31% (35%)
Cons 15% (9%)
No results for the NDP and Greens, but they can't be good, given these numbers already add up to 90% of respondents. We haven't seen a Bloc result this high for some time, nor have we seen such a large gap. The previous SC results were in line with other findings, which makes this result intriguing. That said, this is also the pollster that gave the Greens 26%, the lead in the province, a few months ago, so caution is required.
No other regions provided, but with the Liberals barely off nationally, despite these Ontario and Quebec numbers, one can assume they are doing better in other areas of the country.
Difficult to imagine the polls really changing much over the summer. The only party you can see benefitting from the summer lull is the Conservatives. The government will have more natural exposure, relative quiet to push their talking points. There really isn't a rational argument available, that can see the Liberals regaining the lost momentum. The fall provides the next real opportunity to move the numbers. Within that reality, the September confidence vote looks problematic- hard to see how the Liberals are well positioned to pull the plug.