Tuesday, July 07, 2009


The new Strategic Counsel poll contains more of the same. Statistical tie, Liberal momentum has vanished, which raises some interesting questions heading into this looming fall election threat. Given that we're now in the summer season, wherein it's very difficult for opposition parties to gain any momentum, it's looking more and more like September might not be as climatic as previously thought.

The national numbers show a noticeable Conservative uptick, Liberals stagnant, NDP still showing poor results where it matters:
Cons 34% (30%)
Libs 33% (34%)
NDP 15% (16%)

Much of the Conservative gain comes in Ontario, where SC shows them retaking the lead. SC also shows a slight Conservative rebound in Quebec, although nothing to get excited about.

In Ontario:
Cons 43% (35%)
Libs 39% (44%)
NDP 11% (10%)

A pretty sizeable shift, and this pollster gives the Conservatives their biggest lead in months. The Liberal number isn't out of line, relative to other recent findings. Not necessarily a bad result, but it's more striking when you see such a high Conservative percentage. There is clearly a very real volatility between the two principle parties. What doesn't seem volatile, the consistent poor showing for the NDP. This number looks on the low end, along with the recent NANOS poll, but overall we don't see the NDP touching their 2008 numbers.

In Quebec, we see a widening gap, the Bloc clearly out front:
Bloc 44% (37%)
Libs 31% (35%)
Cons 15% (9%)

No results for the NDP and Greens, but they can't be good, given these numbers already add up to 90% of respondents. We haven't seen a Bloc result this high for some time, nor have we seen such a large gap. The previous SC results were in line with other findings, which makes this result intriguing. That said, this is also the pollster that gave the Greens 26%, the lead in the province, a few months ago, so caution is required.

No other regions provided, but with the Liberals barely off nationally, despite these Ontario and Quebec numbers, one can assume they are doing better in other areas of the country.

Difficult to imagine the polls really changing much over the summer. The only party you can see benefitting from the summer lull is the Conservatives. The government will have more natural exposure, relative quiet to push their talking points. There really isn't a rational argument available, that can see the Liberals regaining the lost momentum. The fall provides the next real opportunity to move the numbers. Within that reality, the September confidence vote looks problematic- hard to see how the Liberals are well positioned to pull the plug.


Scott Tribe said...

Well, that's if the Liberals only look at poll numbers as their only reason for pulling the plug; which unfortunately seems to be their modus operandi at the moment.

They need to figure out that a good election campaign will move #'s as well. If they're waiting to somehow get a "majority" type lead in the polls before they vote non-confidence, then we're going to be sitting here til the next supposed fixed election date, or whenever Harper decides to break his own law again.

sjw said...

"..one can assume they are doing better in other areas of the country."

Yeah, the other areas of the country that have a brain in their collective heads.

Steve V said...

"If they're waiting to somehow get a "majority" type lead "

Nobody would realistically wait for that fantasy scenario, but you want to have some momentum heading into a campaign. The real trigger in the fall is going to be EI, and I would argue Harper has effectively taken it off the table with his Afghanistan file-like approach. Maybe we don't get everything we demand, but Harper will move enough on areas he already endorses to make a non-confidence look terribly opportunistic. If you don't have solid numbers within that dynamic, hard to see how you go to the polls. I guess we'll see how it plays out...

bigcitylib said...

Haven't the Harper Tories typically been unable to buff up their numbers over the holidays? Last year being an exception after they ran that last wave of attack ads prior to the election call.

Steve V said...

In 2007 there numbers went up slightly by the time Parliament returned.

Cari said...

I think it is all the massive spending, that has nothing much to do with putting people back to work.
Remember when they spent so much on Quebec..now look where they are.

Anonymous said...

I'm a conservative but if the Liberals wanted to really make seat gains in Quebec, they'd support the Tories attempt to axe public subsidies. I don't see why not since Rossi has manage to increase private donations for the liberal party.

Anonymous said...

For months I have stayed away from liblogs.....I return to see you are still believing this phoney barage of numbers from strategic ekos and Ipsos reid...don't you remember before election 2004 when this wolstencroft came out with the number 42 for the Crappers. This just a try to make stevie look good at g8.....someone very close to me is a pollster and told me libs way ahead in Ontario...please get out the grain of salt....Gramps...they are pulling your leg.

RuralSandi said...

Anons are putting up silly comments all over the blogosphere - one in the same Anon?

Harper always goes up a little when parliament's out.

Möbius said...

.....someone very close to me is a pollster and told me libs way ahead in Ontario...please get out the grain of salt....Gramps...they are pulling your leg.

Wow, Mr. Anecdotal Evidence!

Can you give me a lead on the 4th race at Pimlico?

Anonymous said...

Gotta agree with Anon 5:00 p.m.

We were leading 35 to 30 in the polls in June and the Conservatives were listing badly with Raitt etc. Nothing guaranteed but the fundamentals were there, especially in Ontario and Quebec. We coulda snagged a minority. We could have done it.

I feel like a hitchhiker on a lonely stretch of highway with cars passing once in blue moon. Who knows when our next chance will come.

Anthony said...

bloc by 11 in Quebec?

i call bullshit

the two quebec firms both weighed in recently with 4 times the sample size and both show the Libs and BQ to be tied.

That alone counts for a 2 point swing in the national polls.

Greg said...

As the sage said, it's deja vu all over again.

sjw said...

I must say I am extremely disappointed that Anon@5pm had their comment deleted. I found it rather pertinent, in no way out of line and like Anon@7:38pm tended to agree with its sentiments. Care to elaborate on your decision to censor, Steve V?

Steve V said...

Con troll who goes under anon to pollute the comments. No time for that anymore :)