Just for fun, a superficial "playing with numbers" scenario.
Current seat totals=Cons 143 Libs 77 NDP 37 Bloc 49
Atlantic Canada 2008:
The Liberals held 22 seats in 2004, 20 in 2006. There are potential takebacks in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and one in PEI. For arguments sake, let's say the Libs pickup three seats from the Cons, NDP remain the same because they do appear to have some strength:
Cons 140 Lib 80 NDP 37 Bloc 49
Current Liberal support is akin to 2004 totals, which translated to 21 seats. A optimistic scenario might look like:
Cons 134 Libs 90 NDP 37 Bloc 45
In 2006, the NDP actually scored a higher percentage than in 2008, yet where only able to garner 12 seats (2004 same support as 2008, yet only 7 seats). This speaks to a real weakness in the Liberal vote, which by all accounts is no longer present. Obviously the key battleground for the Liberals, something in the order of a 7% gap, which is entirely doable, would come up with:
Cons 119 Libs 110 NDP 32 Bloc 45
In 2006 and 2004 the Liberals had 3 seats. Some evidence that the Liberals have the capacity to pickup a couple of seats, noteably a recent poll that shows the party doing well in Winnipeg. Let's allow the Liberals to return to previous pedestrian form:
Cons 118 Libs 112 NDP 31 Bloc 45
As for Alberta and Saskatchewan, let's say the Liberals manage to pickup one seat, the NDP hang on to there lone seat in Edmonton.
Cons 117 Libs 113 NDP 31 Bloc 45
British Columbia 2008:
The Liberals had 9 seats in 2006, 8 in 2004. There is some reason for optimism that we could get back into that terrority, although anything more might be a stretch:
Cons 115 Libs 116 NDP 30 Bloc 45
For arguments sake, the northern seats remain the same.
This is obviously a generalization of the highest order, but it does speak to how much it takes for the Liberals to eke out the most miniscule of victories, from our current lowly seat total. The only way we see a more stable minority situation is if the Liberals really romp in Ontario, a double digit advantage, which is on the outside of realistic. That said, I don't believe anything in the above breakdown constitutes "crazy talk".