Monday, December 14, 2009

Angus Reid: Conservative Lead Cut In Half

The lastest Angus Reid poll shows a pretty sizeable change over three weeks, as a 15% Con lead is reduced to 7%. Angus Reid mirrors others, with a gradual erosion in Conservative support, but it also provides a different dynamic, Liberal support up considerably. The national numbers (Nov 14-16 in brackets):
Cons 36% (38%)
Libs 29% (23%)
NDP 16% (17%)
Greens 6% (10%)

Still a healthy lead, but more of the fragile 2006 minority range, rather than the majority findings we've seen since September. Part of this I attribute to a return to normalcy, part of it recent events.

Regional breakdowns:
In a trend that was consistent throughout the year, a majority of decided voters in Alberta (55%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (54%) voice support for the Tories. In British Columbia, the governing party remains on top (42%), with the NDP (26%) barely ahead of the Liberals (23%).

In Ontario, 41 per cent of decided voters would vote for the Conservatives, but the Liberals (34%) have narrowed the gap from 14 points in mid-November to seven points this time around. In Quebec, the Bloc is steady at the top (42%) but the Liberals (25%) are now leading the Tories (17%)

Still leading in Ontario, but the gap is noticeably changed.

Again, in both the HST provinces, no evidence whatsoever that the federal NDP is capitalizing with their stance, numbers static.

Another piece of evidence, that speaks to recent problems for the Conservatives. Harper's approval/disapproval numbers show a 7 point swing on the negative side (5% more disapprove, 2% less approve). Ignatieff's numbers are still bad, but he gains, relative to the bottom.

Some of the other polls have shown a similar gentle fall over time, for the Conservatives. However, this is the first one that shows the Liberals with any momentum, so that is clearly a positive.


Scott Tribe said...

The only event since mid-November that has been out there to cause the Conservatives any grief is the detainees/cover-up/torture story.

I think they're getting some blowback from folks who don't like the thought we might have ignored torture warning signs, and certainly don't like the thought of our government covering that up.

Steve V said...

Might also show that the Libs have done a good job on this file. Gaining some credibility back.

Jeff Jedras said...

Also keep in mind our election sabre-rattling has evaporated. We tend to poll better when an election is unlikely, which speaks to remaining underlying weakness in our numbers, and the public perception we're ready to govern. Not to say these numbers aren't a sign we're at least heading in the right direction, but that underlying credibility gap is a significant impediment to real growth.

Steve V said...

Agree on the credibility gap, it's not time for celebration.

I do think we're starting to get past the election debacle, to a more normal state. There's a lot of soft support that moves around (esp in Ont) and the Cons can't seem to maintain a majority position for any length of time.

Very curious to see Donolo implement his "substance" plan come the new year. That's what we need, some real shape.