Cons 36% (38%)
Libs 29% (23%)
NDP 16% (17%)
Greens 6% (10%)
Still a healthy lead, but more of the fragile 2006 minority range, rather than the majority findings we've seen since September. Part of this I attribute to a return to normalcy, part of it recent events.
In a trend that was consistent throughout the year, a majority of decided voters in Alberta (55%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (54%) voice support for the Tories. In British Columbia, the governing party remains on top (42%), with the NDP (26%) barely ahead of the Liberals (23%).
In Ontario, 41 per cent of decided voters would vote for the Conservatives, but the Liberals (34%) have narrowed the gap from 14 points in mid-November to seven points this time around. In Quebec, the Bloc is steady at the top (42%) but the Liberals (25%) are now leading the Tories (17%)
Still leading in Ontario, but the gap is noticeably changed.
Again, in both the HST provinces, no evidence whatsoever that the federal NDP is capitalizing with their stance, numbers static.
Another piece of evidence, that speaks to recent problems for the Conservatives. Harper's approval/disapproval numbers show a 7 point swing on the negative side (5% more disapprove, 2% less approve). Ignatieff's numbers are still bad, but he gains, relative to the bottom.
Some of the other polls have shown a similar gentle fall over time, for the Conservatives. However, this is the first one that shows the Liberals with any momentum, so that is clearly a positive.