Friday, December 04, 2009

HST Poll

A new poll for Ontario, which shows a dramatically different horserace, and overwhelming rejection of the HST. A NANOS poll last month indicated erosion in Liberal support (37% Lib 35% PC, 17% NDP, Green 10%). The latest Angus Reid poll brings unprecedented numbers for the McGuinty Liberals, pegged a full 14% behind the PC's:
PC 41%
Libs 27%
NDP 20%
Greens 11%

That's some serious seismic change. Of note, this poll was primarily a survey on HST opinion, so the overwhelming rejection questions may have spilt over to the horserace findings. What is apparent, the PC's are gaining at the Lib expense, while the NDP remain relatively static, slight uptick, but unremarkable given the large Liberal retreat. Again, I make the point that the NDP may not be suited to make a TAX argument(one could argue the federal incarnation even less), given people's perceptions. That said, there are warning signs in these numbers to be sure. We'll see if any of it really resonates on the federal scene.

On the HST question, it's all bad for the proponent side:
-76% are very or moderately familiar with the HST

-75% oppose the establishment of the HST in Ontario

-83% believe the HST will make goods and services more expensive

-70% say their opinion of the McGuinty government has worsened over the HST

Rarely do you see such one sided numbers. I'd question the "familiarity" finding, because it's a complicated proposition, all people are really reacting to is the word TAX.

Clearly, some worrying trends for the Liberals.


ottlib said...

Too bad for the Ontario PCs that the next election is two years away.

Steve V said...

And that Hudak is as right wing as they come for the PROGRESSIVE Conservatives.

That will be a nasty campaign.

Top Can Inc. said...

If this poll was only focused on the question of the HST, then yes the Tories are far ahead. But an election campaign is two years away, and will involve many other issues, so the numbers in this poll are artificially high.

That said, the 2007 election was pretty much a referendum on faith based schools, so a campaign on a single issue has happened before.

Steve V said...

You don't want to be partisan, but we've seen it a million times. When a poll asks a series of questions about an unpopular topic, then asks horserace questions, it tends to amplify any damage. I'm not suggesting it hasn't HURT, but I'd be cautious, given the frame.

RayK said...

Here a comparison to the last election:

Liberals 42.2%-->27%, -36%
Tories 31.6%-->41%, +30%
NDP 16.8%-->20%, +19%
Greens (Ha!)

While the increase for the NDP has not been as large as that anjoyed by the PCs, it's not static (unless you were refering to a recent poll rather than the last election).

Steve V said...

Umm, I said it was static relative to the large drop in Lib support. If you must spin it so it looks like a surge, I'll leave you to your bias. From here, it looks like the NDP's opposition to the HST isn't bringing great returns, minor uptick, the upset voter is moving to the PC's. IN BC, voters have no choice, so it paints a nice picture for the NDP.

BTW, percentages are useless, when you're using different numbers. When you have a LOW number, it's much easier to make a flawed percentage claim, relative to a HIGHER number. The Libs have lost as much support as the NDP had in the last election, so the percentage thing doesn't quite tell us anything.

RuralSandi said...

Graham Richardson on CTV Power Play reminded us that it was a stronger NDP that brought us the Mike Harris government.

RuralSandi said...

Seems to me that it hasn't occurred to anyone that this HST issue proves that the NDP, if Federal government, would want to control EVERYTHING from Ottawa - I find that disturbing. That's where we could fight back.

You know, the whole socialism to the extreme thing.

Anonymous said...

RayK's analysis is bang on!

Steve V said...


Oh, you're bad at math too. Funny.

Not Con or Lib said...

Do not worry about the HST.

What you should worry about is if the Cons sign on to the Cap & Trade in which everything will be carbon taxed, from life essentuals to entertainment bacause of carbon footprint. The Cons said that whatever the USA does Canada will follow.

This will reduce them back to two seats again - but the Libs have to have a policy and something to offer canadians.