National Average:
Cons 35
Libs 30.6
NDP 14.8
Greens 9.4
Ontario Average:
Libs 38.2
Cons 36.8
NDP 13.8
Greens 10.4
The national average almost mirrors the election night results, apart from erosion for the NDP. The Ontario numbers pretty much convey a deadheat, the NDP well down, the Greens respectable.
I know it is pretty unscientific to average out different poll results, but it might help balance out the implications of one particular poll.
9 comments:
Steve:
Your link doesnt do anything but point right back to the current article, not the poll you're trying to show, which I suspect is Angus-Reid.
PS - Note that Angus-Reid still has the environment as top of the list in concerns amongst Canadian voters.
Again, I'll take it with a grain of salt due to my distrust of online polling, but at the very least, I think there is volatility out there, not only amongst voters preference of parties, but what issues are important as well.
Not sure what was happening there. Thanks Scott.
Definitely lots of volatility, and are any of the right?
I would guess that Steve's averaging out is probably more accurate of the actual electorate than any of the individual polls.
If there is a campaign in the next 2 months, it will be interesting to see exactly what happens and how the 2 major parties play it out, as well as if the NDP can make themselves relevant in the overall government.
Those average numbers in Ontario don't look good at all. If the Liberals have any hope of winning the next election, they need to pick up seats in Ontario and if that Ontario average panned out they would LOSE a bunch of seats there.
Agreed. The problem for the Liberals is that there are only a small number of seats that would realistically flip from the Tories to the Liberals & aside from Parkdale, no Dipper appears vulnerable to defeat.
I'd throw Mathyssen as vulnerable in Ontario, too. However, there are likely more than a few Liberals potentially vulnerable. We haven't seen a cohesive platform yet, nor should we expect one, other than the CONs running on 'We're not STephane Dion.'
All I would take from this is that there is a large swing vote that can easily move from one party to another. This means triggering an election would be risky for both parties at this point. In Ontario, the Tories are consistently between 30-40% but this in terms of seats means between 20 seats at the low end and 60 seats at the high end.
As for vulnerable seats, the urban ridings should stay Liberal. I expect the Tories to be shut out of Toronto proper again. It is the mid sized cities, mixed urban/rural, and suburban seats that are up from grabs. On the Tory side, ridings such as St. Catharines, Barrie, and Ottawa Orleans would be vulnerable, but on the Liberal side ridings such as Oakville, Mississauga South, and Brant would be vulnerable. Rural Ontario should remain predominately Tory with possibly a few Liberal wins in the best case scenario.
Steve,
I am starting to see polling as some evil media construct that takes the discussion away from depth of political discourse and keeps it light and frothy.
They are always fun when your guys are ahead, but I think that it just becomes political "crack" after awhile.
During election campaigns they are hard to resist.
Tomm
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