Sunday, February 17, 2008

Who Knows?

You have a Democratic contest, wherein every delegate is crucial, the math absolutely critical. I'm starting to wonder if ANYONE actually knows where each candidate stands. Depending on your news source, you get different numbers, whether it be pledged delegates or super-delegates. It makes me wonder, does the Democratic Party know with certainty the delegate count, and if they do, could they please fire off an email to the media, in the interest of clarity. A sampling:
Real Clear Politics:

Obama 1301 delegates (1133 Pledged)

Clinton 1235 delegates (996 Pledged)


Obama 1262 delegates (1102 Pledged

Clinton 1213 delegates (978 Pledged)

Washington Post:

Obama 1280 delegates (1112 Pledged)

Clinton 1218 delegates (979 Pledged)

New York Times:

Obam 1275 delegates (934 Pledged)

Clinton 1220 delegates (892 Pledged)

ABC News:

Obama 1297 delegates

Clinton 1224 delegates

For arguments sake, let's say that Clinton somehow closes the gap, in the coming weeks. The apparent subjectivity in reporting could lead to different storylines, different endgame scenarios. Isn't priority one, getting the numbers right, in a uniform way, to ensure people have an accurate understanding of the landscape? I hate to say it, but I suspect the Democratic National Committee isn't even certain of exact numbers at this point. If the DNC does possess clarity, maybe they could get the word out, so everyone isn't speculating, based on numbers which appear to involve some guesswork.


Anonymous said...

The super delegates will decide the election not the elctorate. If the remaining unpledged super delegates made sure the super delegate count is 50/50 Clinton/Obama then their bad idea won't affect the outcome.

Anthony said...

wait til they restore florida and michigan's delegates,

esp florida, where nobody campaigned, except for Obama, with some minor TV ads in the last week.

The DNC will not allow 2 pivotal election states to go unrepresented at a convention this close...

this whole affair will turn into the gong show of all gong shows very very soon

Steve V said...

They can't allocate the Florida and Michigan delelgates based on what happened, Obama's camp would go wild, and there would a civil war within the party. What about re-holding those two primaries?

I think the super delegates deciding the outcome is a non-starter, another civil war scenario. Whomever has the most pledged delegates at the end, will have a powerful argument and the super delegates will be pressured to fall in line.