Friday, February 06, 2009

“Ignatieff’s Clearly In The Game"

It's all about the trend line, and for Ipsos Reid, the Liberals have cut the gap in half:
The popularity gap between the government and the official Opposition has narrowed once again, with 37 per cent of decided voters supporting Stephen Harper’s Conservatives and 31 per cent behind Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals...

Conservative support nationally is down from the last poll by two points to 37 per cent; Liberals up three points to 31 per cent; the New Democratic Party down one point to 14 per cent; and the Green party down two points to seven per cent.

Liberals up in Ontario:
The Liberals lead Ontario with 39 per cent support, compared to 37 per cent for the Conservatives, 14 per cent for the NDP and 10 per cent for the Greens.

Compared to the election, Liberals up 6%, Cons down 2%, NDP down 4%.

Quebec, the Bloc up:
The Bloc has the support of 42 per cent of Quebecers, an increase of seven points, over the Liberals at 24 per cent, the Conservatives at 18 per cent, the NDP at 11 per cent and the Greens at 10 per cent.

The rest of the country:
Nationally, the Conservatives still hold a commanding lead of 48 per cent in British Columbia, 70 per cent in Alberta, and 55 per cent in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are on top with 48 per cent, followed by 25 per cent for the NDP, 24 per cent for the Conservatives and four per cent for the Greens.

Conservatives up in the Prairies, which is noteworthy, because the regional disparity is even more pronounced, the national numbers misleading in terms of seat distribution. Further evidence, that the NDP may be getting squeezed out of the economic conversation, and it looks like the Liberals are benefiting.

Wright:
“This is really the first poll since Mr. Ignatieff’s leadership where we’ve been able to measure the full effect of his stewardship of the Liberal party,” Wright said.

“His comment about putting the Conservatives on probation was astute, and probably echoed many of the people in this country who have wondered what the Conservatives are going to do about the economy and whether or not the Liberal party would act as an official Opposition."

We'll have to see if the Bloc bounce in Quebec is real. CROP showed an entirely different result, and as I was often reminded in the past, their sample size and accuracy history should be considered. That said, it isn't entirely hard to believe the Bloc would get a bump in the budget aftermath, particularly with a high profile convention to boot.

Overall, good news for the Liberals, pollster aside, the trends are positive.

15 comments:

Gordie_Canuk said...

The numbers show why Iggy endorsed a disastorous budget...the best he probably could have achieved is reduced Tory minority if those trends were to be translated into an election. I was hoping he had more confidence in his ability to lead a campaign...but whaddyer gonna do.

We'll have to sit back and wait for the Liberals to leapfrog the Cons before we can put an end to Harper's mismanagement...if they wait to long the damage could be substantial and the Libs might end up taking a lot of the blame.

Steve V said...

Gordie

I think the budget was endorsed because we just had an election, Harper clearly moved, that was the impression and nobody wanted the other option. As for these numbers, they're actually pretty tight, when you breakdown the regionals. Heading into an election, within earshot, knowing the government will be bombarded with bad economic data, isn't a bad option. I'm thinking June...

Gordie_Canuk said...

Steve...like a lot of people I predicted that the Libs would back the budget and that we'll be heading for an election this year...

While I agree it will be bad news for the Cons as they're bombarded by bad news...I'm thinking part of the blame may be borne by the Liberals. Will they be able to distance themselves sufficiently from a budget they endorsed.

Harper is going to claim that it wasn't HIS budget...merely the product of having to cave to Liberal demands.

Steve V said...

"I'm thinking part of the blame may be borne by the Liberals."

I think there's a window here, people don't really buy the Liberal budget angle, they understand the dynamics. That can change over time, especially if we are complaining and do little about it. We clearly have time, but I wouldn't be complacent and think have months and months to rebuild and get ready, because every time we let a probation date pass, it will look more and more like we're partially responsible. That's why I'd be targeting June, might not be optimal readiness wise, but the timing is probably best.

Mushroom said...

"That's why I'd be targeting June, might not be optimal readiness wise, but the timing is probably best."

A June defeat would be an election early July. Summer election? Note that the Grits need to consolidate after the party convention in November.

Think about Fall 2009 at the earliest. Harper needs to get another Throne Speech through. Then there is the Fall Fiscal Update. Late October and early November.

The thing with the Grits is that the BC numbers are still not that good. At the same thing, most of the gains Iggy make are at the expense of the NDP, so we are dealing more with a two party race now.

Steve V said...

mushroom

We should get a bit of a bounce after the May convention, so keep that in mind. Also, other polls show us up in B.C, and the convention should help somewhat.

Anonymous said...

Steve Parliament won't be sitting in June, count on it. It will adjourn at the end of May. The 2nd (June) and 3rd (December) "accountability reports" will be presented when the House is not in session and there's nothing the opposition can do about that. Why you would think different when we know Harper's tactics well I dunno.

3 quick q's though:
1) Are these Ipsos number not WORSE than the Ipsos poll that was just DAYS before the election? On October 9th, Ipsos had it as 34-29. How does THIS LASTEST poll with 37-31 make you feel super confident? Ipsos of all pollsters was the poll used for National Post article 3 DAYS BEFORE election day "How a Rout Became a Bout" and how Dion had a real shot at victory on October 14th.

2) If these numbers still existed in September would you advoated voting down the throne speech and/or fiscal update to go to the polls?

3) If these numbers still existed next Feb/March would you advocate voting down Budget 2010 to the go to the polls then?

Anonymous said...

"he thing with the Grits is that the BC numbers are still not that good. At the same thing, most of the gains Iggy make are at the expense of the NDP, so we are dealing more with a two party race now."

Yawn. The NDP was as low as 12-13 percent when the '08 election was called and they ended up over 18%. Once people see what a snooty patrician Count Ignatieff we will be back to a 2006 election style popular vote split.

The NDP will have a field day with the economy going down the drain in the wake of the Harper/Ignatieff budget.

Anonymous said...

Btw Steve those Quebec numbers are no better than we did with Dion in the last election.

Spin all you want but no blaming the coalition now since Iggy rejected it and ppl know that now. So how do you explain the fact that Ipsos's last poll of the election had Dion doing MUCH better relative to the Cons, as did their polls post-election (but pre-coalition).

Steve V said...

anon

What a silly sod. Now, Ipsos is the GOD on Quebec, and CROP is CRAP.

Umm, Dion lost the election by 12%, and Ipsos did not show the race tighter pre-coalition, in fact they ran NO POLLS. Go away now...

Steve V said...

"The NDP was as low as 12-13 percent when the '08 election was called and they ended up over 18%."

You don't have Dion anymore. Yawn is right. If you look at the Ontario gains for the Liberal, in almost all the polls, it seems to come at the expense of the NDP. Fluff it off all you want, I really don't care, all I know is you guys BLEW this budget debate BAD :)

Steve V said...

Just to add, I can't believe what kind of colossal idiot actually uses a pre-election poll as the basis, instead of the ELECTION RESULTS. Talk about spin, and really, really lame shit at that. I tire of baffoons.

Anonymous said...

"What a silly sod. Now, Ipsos is the GOD on Quebec, and CROP is CRAP."

Well, the Ipsos poll was taken after Igantieff formed his alliance with Harper. The CROP poll was before that when people in Quebec still had hopes that Ignatieff was actually opposed to Harper. Now they have seen what he is really all about and so they dropped him like a hot potato.

Steve V said...

Yawn.

Mushroom said...

"The NDP was as low as 12-13 percent when the '08 election was called and they ended up over 18%."

Then there were polls during the election race that showed the NDP at 20-22 per cent.

The key is this that the NDP vote tends to hold come voting day. They will attract about 2.5 to 2.6 million. Many Grit voters have been sitting on their hands for Martin and Dion in 2006 and
2008. Iggy needs them to vote big time.

The consolation is that many hand sitters are in Quebec and will flock to Iggy. They also tend to not vote for the Bloc so Duceppe's numbers tend to be skewered a bit.