Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Ouch

Today's NANOS poll shows sizeable movement, putting their numbers in line with the other pollsters. The biggest surprise, the Liberals are now fourth in Quebec, and while the MOE can give one comfort, it doesn't detract from a worrying trend. First the national numbers, which show a double-digit gap:
Conservative Party 38 (+3)
Liberal Party 27 (-3)
NDP 21 (-1)
BQ 8% (+1)
Green Party 6% (NC)
Undecided 17% (-1)

The lowest total for the Liberals I've seen in a NANOS poll. It would appear that as the Ritz controversy rolls off the poll, we are returning to a big Conservative lead.

NANOS finds the Conservatives with increasing support in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, but from the Liberal perspective, this should give everyone pause:
Quebec:

Bloc 34%
Cons 27%
NDP 19%
Libs 16%
Greens 6%

A noticeable uptick for the Bloc, which we've seen elsewhere. I said this at the beginning of the campaign, Duceppe has the luxury of campaigning in the province everyday, he's an excellent advocate, so a slight Bloc resurgence should surprise no one. What is shocking, and this is borne out elsewhere, the Liberals are fading badly, while the NDP is getting some serious traction. Nanos offers one caveat, that being a highly volatile Quebec electorate, but flirting is still concerning regardless.

The Liberal comfort blanket, which just happened to be the most reliable, has now evaporated, we face a big uphill battle.

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

as I waTChed a callin show yesterday on 24 about putting 14 year olds in jail for life I was amazed at the 1000plus that supported it and under 100 were against it....this must be what has changed the picture especially in atlantic where we have really lost it....oh well...I dont think like that and I never will ...

MississaugaPeter said...

Harper is again pulling a Mulroney and courting the Quebec Nationalists.

Last time the Conservatives courted the Quebec Nationalists, we got Lucien Bouchard and the Bloc.

The Liberal War Room has been saving the punches for the last 2 weeks of the campaign...when people will really become involved in the election.

Hopefully, we have bottomed out and only have one direction to go.

Anonymous said...

I thought that the Crime bill would scare the Quebecers' away. along with the cuts in arts.People must have been listening to Harper's Armageddon upcoming with the Liberal plan.

Joseph said...

I said it two weeks ago, and I'll say it again now.

If this whole strategy has been about "saving the punches," it is a stupid strategy.

The narrative will be that the Liberals are desperate. Everyone will jump on board - conservatives, NDP, media, man and woman on the street.

End of story. If Harper is smart - and he is a smart campaigner - he'll be dismissive and pull out the sweater vest for a couple more "we can do this" ads (whatever this is being whatever the person viewing wants it to be.

If there were going to be heavy punches in this campaign, they should have been on say, Week 1 of the campaign.

Ending with a bang may be just that.

Rant over.

If that is the plan, I hope the Liberals just continue presenting themselves as a thoughtful party bringing forth sound policies, and countering that with the "big nothing" than Harper has offered.

But the days of punching hard are rapidly closing, if they haven't already.

Joseph said...

Steve,

You do have the Bloc and Conservatives flipped on your table listing in Quebec.

The Cloudwalking Owl said...

I think the only numbers that really count are the undecided voters. The Conservatives and the Greens are pretty much "true believer" parties, so anyone that would vote for them has already stated their intention to do so. I suspect that most of the 17% of undecided are strategic voters who are waiting to see which way the wind is blowing before they decide which ABC party they are going to support.

bigcitylib said...

Ouch is a good word for it.

I should say though that interest in this election is still pitiably low, with even some political relations types I know telling me they're only really following the polls and won't tune in to anything else until around debate time.

So...

CuriosityCat said...

Dion has not managed to set voters alight.

The Liberal team is not to be seen, and so a major opportunity of injecting life into the party's campaign is being missed.

Also, Dion was too quick with his trigger, shooting down Layton's hints about an alignment of the centre-left parties to replace the Tory minority government.

Mike said...

Margin of error.
That is all. Wait for a trend, not a single day blip.

Still because its Nanos, pay attention.

Of course, though I have no horse in the race, I would say you guys would be doing way better with Rae or Iggy at the helm.

Anonymous said...

I suspect that most of the 17% of undecided are strategic voters who are waiting to see which way the wind is blowing before they decide which ABC party they are going to support.

If you had been watching Nanos doing his analysis on CPAC, you would have heard that about 15% of voters don't even make up their mind until they are in the voting booth. A scary thought, but that is what Nanos said. Those voters are not being "strategic" in any way, shape or form. They are clueless until they see an interesting name or word on the ballot sheet and then they mark their X.

Anonymous said...

NB: Look at the "Best Person for PM" numbers in Quebec as well:

Harper - 26%
Layton - 23%
Duceppe - 12%
Dion - 9% (!!)

Unlike previous elections the NDP is actually spending millions of dollars on ads etc... in Quebec so chances are their vote will be far more resilient than in past elections.

Anonymous said...

nanos polls are over rated, to many are putting their bags into it, the ndp is to high, take 5 to 6 points of give it to the libs....
harper squandered 13 billion, canadians are not that stupid to vote for him again....

Yappa said...

We do seem to be screwed, don't we?

Maybe we'll get a bump from yesterday's plan announcement. (At least we have a plan now.)

I think we have to go negative: hit Harper hard with every dollar we've got. He's got adds with Dion with a lettuce on his head... make similar ads that ridicule and demonize Harper. The man's such a monster that there's plenty of material.

Last time Martin waited too long to do that, but it improved the Liberal vote slightly.

JimmE said...

I've been keeping myself busy door knocking & whatever needs to be done, & I just don't see the poll results in what people say at the doors. This is far from my first Rodeo, & I do a hard canvas, the overwhelming sentiment is "well I don't want Harper to get back in". Our former MP is back in the race & is well liked, so that may also colour what I get here.
This is not like 1984 (but, we've yet to have a debate) nor does it have the drama of '88 where with two weeks to go we were ahead, and lost election day (again, we've not had a debate). I understand a month of negative personal ads will change people's minds - I just get the feeling folks are waiting for something more from Dion. One minor change to note, the Star's coverage seems - less negative of the Liberal Campaign. But it would be nice if the rest of the Media started to ask some questions; I was totally wrong, they're letting Harper get away with the boy in the plastic bubble campaign.

JimmE said...

... Oh one more thing, where are all the protesters? I've yet to see any coverage of Seniors who lost a bundle on the Income trust, no kids in Polar Bear suits, no anti-war, or anti-poverty folks. What gives? Are they out there & the Media have decided not to show them? Or are we sleepwalking over the abyss?
Cripes, I've seen more protesters at a Toronto Mayor Do-Nuth'n-Dave announcement than I've seen in this campaign.

JimmE said...

... Ok gotta go, but one thing not mentioned in this campaign is Harper's vision of Canada. That is a vision of Canada without a Federal Government. Like most Tories, but to an extreme, he will put the government in the financial position where it can no longer play a role in anything. Mr Harper is not honest with Canadians in that he hides this position. One should look at his record, in government (such as it is), & what he's written over the years.

Anonymous said...

Harper mawks one ill and all with a sleek sickening smile. my daughter insists he has women's lips!!!
whatever, I do not think I have see a man so hated in my life..they either loved or hated PET, but I do not think he was reviled this much. Something has to be done to stop him. Harper I once did not think much of Mr. Dion, but at least I feel safer with him and our country will still be here.

sharonapple88 said...

One thing to consider is that the rises and falls in the polls are all within the margin of error. Sadly, the rise that cut the Conservatives lead as well as the current fall.

Dame said...

Am I alone with My opinion?
namely what percent of the general population is WILLING to give TRUE opinions for a call Of the polster???
I Think it is less the 50 % .... Or even less ..
there fore these polls are not reflecting the truth ..
and Following the day by day numbers going up or down a bit... means not much.


Anything can and will happen at the last day... or in the last hrs when people will make those X marks...

Raphael Alexander said...

I don't want to say I told you so but....

I frikkin' told you so.

And you mocked me for it on my blog and said Nanos was the oracle.

Reality is a harsh mistress for the Liberals these days.

Like I said, 10 point lead Steve. 10 points.

Steve V said...

raphael

Wow. Some guy adds up all the polls, divides by that number, and he told me so. We all passed grade 9 math Raphael thanks, hilarious. When you have the most accurate pollster showing a different result, you are wise to hesitate, unless you are a Con hack like yourself, then you just ignore.

Go back and do whatever it is you do, I frankly don't pay attention or particularly care.