Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Poll Summary

Nanos has the gap at 11%, with some interesting tidbits. Decima has the gap at 10%, with signs the NDP are trending downward. EKOS has the gap narrowing again, this time to 7% (the Liberals at their highest for this pollster since the election call), and plenty of room for Liberal growth.

One additional poll, which does a detailed analysis of key Quebec ridings, shows the Conservatives dreams of a breakthrough are fading fast:
A poll released yesterday by L├ęger Marketing indicated the party might not win any more seats at all.

If the results are too be believed, the Cons will lose a cabinet minister and Fortier is in big trouble. Another interesting note, in the Decima poll, when Bloc supporters are asked for their second choice, the Cons have fallen to an abysmal 5%, down from as high as 34% since the election began (the Liberals the second choice of 21%). Bad numbers, and little evidence of growth potential, it would appear opinion is firming up against the Conservatives in Quebec.

Speaking of growth potential, this from Decima:
The Liberals have considerable room to grow, as they are the second choice of 44% of NDP voters, 37% of Green Party voters, 38% of Conservative voters and 21% of BQ voters.

This brings me to what I think is the important aspect of today's polls. There is real evidence that the NDP are pulling back from their high water mark, especially in Ontario. Decima has them life and death for 3rd with the Greens, all of the polls have them well back. It would appear the NDP's platform has done absolutely nothing for their prospects, if anything we see some pullback, even with urban women, a clear target with the childcare initiative. Maybe outdated socialism isn't the answer afterall.

Now that the Liberals are getting some real distance from the NDP, and this media inspired battle for second is evaporating, Layton's talking point ringing hollow, it allows for a more focused choice. This is step one, if the Liberals do have a chance, the electorate must see a clear alternative, if they hope to use this potential for "growth". In the dying days, if Layton is a distant third, then some of the second choice vote could move to the Liberals (it's happened before). Ditto for the Green support, but this only happens if the Liberals stand apart.

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

We shall see - the debates are coming up...

Jerry Prager said...

The Cons have still not moved much more than percentage point from the last election: they have no room to grow. Harper John-Tory'd Quebec with his youth crime and arts comments. His word for word Iraq speech that Harper copied off the Australian PM, in 2003 is embarrassing. And he has no depth of field in his cabinet.

Steve V said...

It looks like they're clearly stuck now, it will be a matter of whether we can get back to pre-writ numbers.

JimmE said...

1984 - Turner was in the range Harper finds himself in - Muldoon was in the range Dion is in now. The debate - as we know cooked JT.
1988 - Things were reversed, JT turned the tables, but with about 3 weeks left in the campaign, & Muldoon's minions calling anything that looked Liberal a Liar, (Including yours truly) Muldoon limped home to victory.
So this crazy thing, may get real crazy, real fast. Why do I love these things again?
8-]

JimmE said...

... Somewhat off topic, & It may just be me, but I've noticed since the election started, the comments sections of most media outlets seem to be flamed by very strident Reform Party/Tory types.

Steve V said...

jimme

Those boards have been a cesspool for a long time, I can't bear to read them.

Miles Lunn said...

I think at this point any big breakthrough in Quebec looks unlikely. The only thing the Tories have in their favour in Quebec is the fact they tend to be strongest amongst the over 50 population who generally have the highest turnout, but even that can only go so far. As I said on my blog, I could see the Tories dropping to as low as 5 seats in Quebec to as high as 20 seats, but neither scenario would make winning a majority easy and in fact the first one would make it impossible.

Steve V said...

miles

And, let's not forget that in the dying days we've seen Ontario voters turn back to the Liberal fold before. The Liberals had a consistent big lead in Ontario all spring and summer, so it's there, we just have to massage it back, that's why getting the NDP off our back is key. If the Cons are stalled in Quebec, it might get very interesting to see what the soft support does in Ontario.

Anonymous said...

"let's not forget that in the dying days we've seen Ontario voters turn back to the Liberal fold before."

We know that happened when the Liberals were the incumbent party in 2004 and 2006 and there was all this fear of the unknown. I'm not sure if this will happen now that the Tories have been in power and the earth has NOT stopped revolving. Also, paul martin for all his faults had a lot more vestigial respect than Dion has.

Steve V said...

anon

That support is soft, it's entirely possible.

Miles Lunn said...

When it comes to soft Ontario supporters coming back, I think it is quite possible. Probably not as strongly as in 2004 as the Liberals were the incumbent government and the Tories were a total unknown then. Still, I think the Liberals could under the right circumstances get 60-65 seats. I don't think they can realistically match their 2004 results in Ontario, but I think they could do better than 2006. Right now, I suspect they would only do slightly worse than 2006, otherwise only losing the really close ridings, mostly in the 905 belt (i.e. Oakville, Mississauga South) but with 2 weeks to go that could change and I suspect the Tories are probably only slightly ahead in those ridings today. Even ones such as St. Catharines, Barrie, or Ottawa-Orleans, I suspect the Tory lead is less than 10 points, maybe even under 5 points.

burlivespipe said...

We do seem to have a little wind in the sails, but let's keep it in perspective; the electorate has been, at least through a blizzard of polls, been fairly fluid. The trick has been to draw it into the big red tent.
Dion hasn't had much luck regarding that but the debates - and the french one is equally as important, since that's where half our growth potential is - could provide the key opportunity. He has to link the latest gaffe (the Iraq speech) with Bush and Bush economics... Bringing that to roost, where the man who lied to go to war in Iraq also was an incompetent financial manager, and that's Harper's model.
But we've also got to keep pushing our policies, because there is a willingness to listen. It's just been too often overwhelmed by the lies and posturing of the so-called leaders of the Ndp and CONs.

Joseph said...

Speaking of debates, do you think eliminating the opening and closing leader statements in order to ask more economy-related questions helps or hurts Dion? Or no difference?

I think it helps Dion because it eliminates the ability of Harper to weave his own fictional narrative bookends. Thus Dion and the other parties have ample opportunity to hit him on details throughout the debate.

I am sort of surprised they eliminated both though. I could understand eliminating the opening, but it seems strange to get rid of both.

I think it's funny too because clearly what Harper really wanted was to eliminate questions on other topics. As it is they will all still be covered, just more on the economy.

Anonymous said...

Sorry to dampen the enthusiasm around here but Nanos has the Libs down by 11, correct? Nic Nanos, the most accurate pollster in the world.

Oh and CROP poll out. Looks like a Tory breakthrough in Quebec after all being that they are in a statistical tie with the Bloc.

Anonymous said...

Easy come, easy go for the Liberals. The latest Ekos poll has them dropping two points back to 255 while the NDp and Greens each picked up a point. Also, the CROP poll of 1,000 in Quebec has the liberals tied with the NDP at 16% and with the liberals a definite 4th among francophone Quebebcers.

Steve V said...

anon

Hey genius, I seem to remember mentioning NANOS in the post, you low rent stooges are a hoot.

Steve V said...

anon

LOL on the statistical tie with the Bloc, even the Con strategists are on the record saying "it doesn't look good". Wonder which internal poll they're basing that on???