Conservative Party 38% (NC)
Liberal Party 30% (-1)
NDP 15% (+1)
BQ 9% (NC)
Green Party 8% (-1)
Undecided 20% (+1)
Two days agos NANOS had a 5 point, now the advantage is up to 8%. The Liberal vote in Ontario is waning, which raises the prospect of a Conservative majority. The only silver lining for the Liberals, and not much of one at that, Harper's personal numbers have taken a hit.
Decima, shows a gigantic Conservative lead:
According to The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey, Liberal support slipped to 24 per cent, a full 17-points behind Stephen Harper's Conservatives at 41 per cent.
The NDP and Green party made modest gains at the Liberals' expense, ending the week at 16 per cent and 10 per cent respectively.
The Liberals were ahead of the pack only in Atlantic Canada, with an eight-point lead over the Conservatives.
In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois led with 36 per cent, followed closely by the Conservatives at 30 per cent, the Liberals at 16 per cent and the NDP at 10 per cent.
This isn't the first poll to show the Liberals down to 24%, and it should be cause for concern. It would appear that Liberal support is collapsing in Quebec, which would certainly help the Conservatives on the vote splitting front.
Decima offers compelling evidence to explain why their polling has gone from a statistical dead heat to a romp in the span of two weeks:
Stephen Harper's Conservatives were the hands-down winners of the air war during the opening week of the federal election campaign, a new poll suggests.
The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey indicates Conservative advertisements had almost double the impact of those aired by the Liberals.
Conservative ads ran early and ran relentlessly, said Harris-Decima CEO Bruce Anderson.
"In terms of sheer tonnage, it was shock-and-awe," the pollster said.
Twenty-two per cent of respondents said they'd seen or heard a ``great deal" of the Tory ads while another 28 per cent said "a fair bit."
By contrast, only eight per cent had seen or heard a lot of the Liberal ads, with another 21 per cent saying a fair bit.
Recall levels for other parties were even lower, with roughly half saying they'd seen or heard no advertisements at all from the NDP, Bloc Quebecois or Green party.
It might time for the Liberal strategists to rethink the "long haul" view on advertising, there is a real risk in the next two weeks, that if things don't change, a blitz of ads late ads will be irrelevant. Dion MUST bring up his leadership numbers, it is clearly the achilles heel, as Harper towers above him relatively. If there are any Dion ads in the can, now might be the time to get them out, before the gradient becomes too steep.
One caveat, EKOS had shown Conservative erosion in the last few days, and today they noted that the Liberals are rebounding in the big urban centers, the reason being fear of a Harper majority. I'll add those EKOS results when they come out, to see if the trend cuts across all the polls.