Conservatives: 37 per cent (+5)
Liberals: 29 per cent (-1)
New Democrats: 17 per cent (-1)
Green Party: 9 per cent (-1)
Bloc Quebecois: 8 per cent (-2)
The Ontario numbers frankly look goofy:
Conservatives: 41 per cent (+10)
Liberals: 35 per cent (-4)
New Democrats: 15 per cent (-3)
Green Party: 10 per cent (-2)
Two polls last week, reputable one's at that, showed the Conservatives down to their lowest point in any polling down since 2006, now Strategic Counsel puts them at dizzying heights. Double digit Liberal lead in three polls, now SC with this result. I'll defer to my gut here, there is nothing happening here in Ontario that makes me entertain the Conservatives surging. Reeking outlier alert.
The most curious part, despite the apparent big lead, SC shows the Liberals doing well in Quebec:
Bloc Quebecois: 34 per cent (-12)
Liberals: 26 per cent (+4)
Conservatives: 23 per cent (+7)
New Democrats: 12 per cent (+5)
Green Party: 5 per cent (-3)
The leadership numbers seem entirely in tune, Harper has a big gap over Dion, just more evidence I suppose.
The poll also suggests the Conservatives have momentum in British Columbia, Liberals fading, which could well be the case. Overall, you do get a sense from all the polls that if there is any movement, it hasn't been with the Liberals.
I think SC has blown it with the Ontario numbers, some quick mental math, take three off the Cons, give it to the Libs, we have another national statistical tie. Sound good?