Liberals Lead "Second Choice"

When the Liberals were well back in the polls, one glimmer of hope was the "second choice" component. Even though we trailed, there was still possibility, because pollsters concluded we had the most room for "growth", best placed to siphon off opposing party voters. That never materialized, obviously, even worse we couldn't seem to manage to get our own identified voters out to the polls. Now that the Liberals have gained substantial ground, it's interesting to see if that dynamic is still in play. One could assume, that since we've poached a few voters here and there, that our "second choice" preference would have waned, those inclined more in the fold, so the reservoir lessened. However, data from the last NANOS poll, which gave the Liberals 36%, shows that despite the uptick, we still lead on "second choice", and the numbers tell us a centrist approach is the best strategy to grow from here.

The overall numbers for second choice, amongst identified voters:

Liberals 18.3%
NDP 14.8%
Cons 14%
Greens 13.9%

Not a huge advantage, but outside the margin of error. What is even more relevant, just where the various parties draw their second choice support from. The Liberals are the preferred second choice for Conservative, NDP and Green supporters. The highest percentage comes from NDP supporters, a full 40% pick the Liberals. A strong number, considering this poll has already seen a bleed in NDP support to the Liberals. That number would suggest the Liberals are wise to appeal to the left flank, but the percentages only tell half the story. 33% of Conservatives pick the Liberals as there second choice, but because the Conservative support is much more than is NDP support, the raw numbers tell us the voter pool is twice that of the NDP. In this sample size we have 44 NDP supporters picking the Liberals, but 91 Conservatives, so the percentages are misleading, in terms of true harvest.

When you see where Liberal support could go, the Conservatives lead with 28%, the NDP 20%, Greens 18%. This suggests the Liberals are most vulnerable on their right flank, particularly if one doesn't make the erroneous calculation that all Green support is "left".

The first conclusion, the Liberals are still well placed for further growth, relative to the other parties; a fact which is particularly encouraging given this poll already places the Liberals at a high water mark. The more telling analysis, in terms of party strategy, the Liberals best odds come with a centrist approach, that is were the additional votes are, that is where they best shore up their own support. Hardly a surprise, given that the "center" is nothing more than terminology used to describe mainstream society.