Wednesday, April 22, 2009

New Poll

The latest Harris Decima poll provides more bad news for the Conservatives. With the very large sample size, the Liberal lead is outside of the margin of error (2.2):
Libs 32%
Cons 29%
NDP 16%
Greens 11%
Bloc 9%

We see a 3% drop for the Conservatives from the last Decima poll, and this is the first time any pollster has put them in the 20's since their election. No regionals yet, except for the broad strokes:
But they trailed the Bloc and Liberals in Quebec, were behind the Liberals in Ontario and were in a second-place tie with the Liberals in British Columbia, where the NDP has top spot.

The pollster refers to the numbers as a "slim lead". The last HD poll was a statistically tie, and this is the first time HD has given the Liberals a lead outside of MOE, a trend we've seen elsewhere. The NDP are up 2% from the last poll, to a more respectable level. I'm quite curious what the BC numbers look like, because with a 2000 sample size, the regionals probably have more weight.

Although there is some slight variation in raw totals, HD confirms the same trends. Liberals lead in Ontario, Conservatives no longer competitive in Quebec and clear signs of erosion elsewher

UPDATE:

Regionals:

But in Ontario, which accounts for one-third of the seats in the House of Commons, the Conservatives were nine-points behind the Liberals,with 31 per cent and 40 per cent respectively. The NDP had 15 per cent support and the Greens 14 per cent.

In Quebec, the Tories have fallen to a distant third, with 12 per cent support compared to 40 per cent for the Bloc, 31 per cent for the Liberals, nine per cent for the NDP and five per cent for the Greens.

And in B.C., the Tories have slipped into a second-place tie with the Liberals (26 per cent each), while the NDP has pulled into a slim lead with 29 per cent support. The Greens had 16 per cent.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals continued to maintain a strong advantage, with 41 per cent, compared to 27 per cent for the Tories, 25 per cent for the NDP and six per cent for the Greens.

The only bright spot for the Conservatives was in the Prairies, wherethey already hold all but seven seats and, thus, have little to gain. In Alberta, the poll suggests the Tories continued to dominate with 55 per cent support, compared to 19 per cent for the Liberals, 14 percent for the Greens and 10 per cent for the NDP.

In Manitoba-Saskatchewan, the poll pegged Conservative support at 46per cent, to 23 per cent for the Liberals, 16 per cent for the NDP and11 per cent for the Greens.


This is the first poll to put the Conservative support so low in British Columbia. For context, the last HD poll had the Conservatives at 38% in the province. I've floated before, that the recession is just now taking a strong hold in British Columbia, curious if this would move the numbers. We've some evidence elsewhere of a slight shift, this poll would tend to confirm that. A strong showing for the NDP, one has to wonder if the provincial election is affecting the numbers.

These regionals show a disasterous concoction for the Conservatives. Another absymal number in Quebec, which looks more plausible with each replicated result. A virtual shutout is a real possibility, and the Liberals are clearly emerging as the only true federalist option. While the Liberals national number is steady, relative to the last poll, in Ontario a 4% lead is now a impressive 9% edge.

Drilling down into the regionals, this HD poll represents a comfortable minority for the Liberals.

14 comments:

Greg said...

All I can say is yay for BC (although I am always suspicious of the regionals)

DL said...

A three point lead is NOT actually beyond the margin of error. Plus or minus 2.2 means the Liberals are anywhere from 30 to 34 percent and the Tories are anywhere from 27 to 31 percent - so there is still overlap.

Steve V said...

Me too, although this is a bigger sample size than the normal regionals.

Steve V said...

DL

Keep telling yourself that. Hey, as an NDP supporter you shouldn't really harp on this sort of thing, because that might mean you're still bottomed out at 14% ;)

BTW, the pollster calls it a Liberal "lead", so maybe you should email them with your incredible mathematical prowess, demonstrating their error.

DL said...

It is a Liberal lead and I'm not denying that. It would be lead if it was 31-30 percent as well. I'm just making a factual statement that its not outside the margin of error. Of course in a way margin of error at the national level is irrelevant since who gets the most votes doesn't matter - its about seats. I think we can all agree that 11% for the Greens is grossly inflated - they got 8% last October back when environment was still an issue they have no where to go but down now and i suspect that those soft green votes are essentially people who don't like Harper but haven't decided who they do like yet - so the upside for the Liberals and NDP is even greater.

Steve V said...

" It would be lead if it was 31-30 percent as well."

No, that's called a statistical tie.

If this was a one off, I'd be hesitant, but all the polls are trending to a Liberal lead. If anything this one has us on the recent low end nationally, so factor that in as well.

Steve V said...

Here are the MOE's for the regions:

3.8 percentage points for the Ontario results, 4.4 points for Quebec, 6.1 points for B.C., 6.8 points for the Atlantic, 6.9 points for Alberta and 6.9 points for Manitoba-Saskatchewan.


That's actually a decent MOE for BC, relative to normal regionals. Still...

mailbox10000 said...

Ipsos has recdently shown the NDP in BC as low as 11%. Don't pay too much attention to BC's numbers in the national samples.

Based upon other info, the Cons are still at least in the upper 30's, the Libs are in the upper 20's, the NDP in the low 20's and the Greens at around 10%.

Perhaps the provincial campaign is confusing the numbers. And it can't be the economy. The provincial NDP has a low 20% rating when it comes to the economy and they are also treading water in terms of their current provincial standing.

Steve V said...

"Based upon other info, the Cons are still at least in the upper 30's, the Libs are in the upper 20's, the NDP in the low 20's and the Greens at around 10%.
"

What other info? Regionals from other polls that we can't trust?

mailbox10000 said...

Privy internal party info. ;)

Anyway, Harris-Decima was in the field on April 8 - 9.

Ekos was in the field on April 8 - 13.

And Ekos' BC results (rounded):

L: 35%
C: 34%
N: 24%
G: 8%

Both have a 6% margin of error but Ekos is a little more closer to what I initially stated.

Mustel has the most accurate BC numbers (both provincially and federally) but they likely won't be back in the field until June/July at the earliest.

DL said...

Actually the Harris-Decima poll was in field April 8-19 - so it is pretty recent. Also, its a poll of 2,000 while the EKOS poll is of 1,477 - so I assume that all the regional sample sizes are a tad bigger in Decima.

A BCer in Toronto said...

The key with the BC numbers is to see if Conservative support is dropping far enough to but interior and northern seats into play, likely for the NDP. In the Lower Mainland numbers such as these could put seats like North Van and West Van back into play for the Liberals, and may make Saanich-GI interesting again. I take these BC numbers with a large grain of salt though. The regional dynamics in BC vary so widely that it's hard to say much from these #s with much certainty. It's encouraging, however.

Steve V said...

Jeff is right with the grain of salt reference, but it's sure better than staring at 2008 numbers in British Columbia. Even if unreliable, half the battle is the sense of some momentum that media can buy into.

Steve V said...

Eric does a poll seat translation here:

Liberals - 126
Conservatives - 94
Bloc Quebecois - 53
New Democrats - 34
Greens - 1