Cons 36% (32%)
Libs 30% (31%)
NDP 16% (18%)
Greens 7% (7%)
The regionals show Ontario at a virtual deadheat, not much change from the last AR poll:
Cons 37% (37%)
Libs 34% (35%)
NDP 19% (20%)
Greens 9% (8%)
A bit different from EKOS, but again it speaks to volatility.
In Quebec, not much change. Liberals at 27%, the Conservatives up to 16%, Bloc at 38%, NDP 12%.
Overall, AR gives the Conservatives their highest percentage of any pollster since March.
Behind the numbers, there are some revealing trends for Ignatieff, which partially explain the Liberal stagnation. I would describe these numbers as "worrying":
Part of the Conservative lead seems to come from a decline in the economic credibility of Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff. About one-third of Canadians (32%) say their either completely or moderately trust Ignatieff to do the right thing to help the economy recover, a drop of seven points since April. Also, the proportion of people who “completely distrust” Ignatieff to do the right thing to help the economy has risen from 19 per cent in April to 27 per cent this month.
The performance of Prime Minister Stephen Harper on economic issues is essentially unchanged since April. Harper is completely or moderately trusted by 41 per cent of respondents (no change) and completely or moderately distrusted by 48 per cent (down four points).
Harper's numbers are quite poor, but they are no longer as pronounced, relative to Ignatieff. Clearly, the election threat fallout has hurt Ignatieff's reputation. Or, maybe more correctly, the blank slate is being filled with negative connotations. Economic management will be the first, second and third most important issue in any campaign, so I'd address this growing weakness immediately and proactively. You don't want to read too much, or overreact, but you also need to recognize the potential liabilities with some foresight in mind.