Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Ignatieff Gains

Two polls out today on leadership, both showing similar results, Ignatieff's favourables on the rise, Harper waning. Harris Decima and Abacus both show an upward trend for Ignatieff, indifferent voters are moving to favorable, an indication that we are seeing some traction.

The Harris Decima website links are down, so we have to look at the press coverage data. Last week, Harris Decima showed an Ignatieff uptick on favourability, Ignatieff now tied with Harper, which I would say is potentially quite significant moving forward as voters decide.:
His leadership is now viewed positively by 42 per cent of respondents, up five points from a week earlier, and negatively by 50 per cent. That's virtually identical to Harper's favour ability rating, which has remained relatively unchanged: 43 per cent positive, 52 per cent negative.

Harris-Decima chairman Allan Gregg said shifts in such "sub-indicators" as leadership favour ability often precede a shift in voting intentions.

"To date, these differences have not manifested themselves in any significant way in voter preference but, if they do, we might expect to see this race become tighter over the next two weeks," he said. "Stay tuned."

Also encouraging, we still have 1/3 of voters saying they don't know Ignatieff well, as opposed to Harper who is a known quantity. Generally a sitting PM enjoys a large gap, that Ignatieff is now tied with Harper demonstrates potential weakness. Fair to say Ignatieff is undoing some of the negative attack ad damage, the Liberals are running a good campaign, the more people see, the more they like.

The Abacus poll pdf is fascinating. Harper now has higher unfavourables, relative to Ignatieff, 56% to 50% respectively. Harper's negatives are up 6% since the campaign began, Ignatieff up 2%. In terms of favourables, Ignatieff is up a substantial 8% to 32%, Harper statistically unchanged at 35%.

The numbers, as always it seems, are more indicative when you look at the regionals. Ignatieff actually scores better than Harper in Ontario, as he sees a full 24% increase in favourables, now up to a very healthy 40%. Harper only scores 36% favorable, while his unfavorables up 10% to 57%, a full eight points higher than his rival. These are not good numbers for Harper, while the Liberals should be quite pleased. I'll mention Layton here to prove a point, in that while his numbers are tops, his party is a distant third, meaning he operates in a different realm, like doesn't equate to votes necessarily, both the joy and the folly of not being a credible PM alternative. Not to say the NDP shouldn't be ecstatic with Layton's numbers- maybe moreso in Quebec- only that comparing him to the others is a different proposition, not a real threat, and the disconnect between love and lever always in play. Anyways, Ontario is key, the fact Ignatieff now bests Harper something to keep a close eye on, because people forever say leadership is a leading indicator.

Abacus shows that the "indifferent" voter is moving to the favorable camp in greater proportions than unfavorable for Ignatieff, a positive sign of winning people over. Ignatieff's favourables up 8% in Quebec, unfavourables unchanged. Ignatieff's favourables up 17% in Atlantic Canada his unfavourables down 1%. In British Columbia, more of a mixed bag, Ignatieff's unfavourables up, but here to, on par with Harper. Reviewing Harper's numbers, we see a skew, his numbers in stronghold provinces tend to overstate the overall weakness.

Nanos shows no such improvement, but Harris Decima has now released two successive polls showing a continuing, large uptick over the course of the campaign. Abacus mirrors these results, so on balance, evidence that Ignatieff is finally getting some traction. On top of that, Harper is looking increasingly vulnerable, particularly in vote rich Ontario, a fact which should cause some concern. The trend is encouraging, just as voters start to get more serious about the choice, as the days start to get shorter...

24 comments:

Dan F said...

This town of Voterich, Ontario sounds like a nice place. I should like to visit there on my next vacation

bigcitylib said...

If leadership numbers meant anything Ed Broadbent would have been PM since 1975. Don't get suckered by stuff that ain't important. Also, the "running the best campaign" numbers have been the NDP leader's since halfway through the last century. Where did it get them?

Steve V said...

"If leadership numbers meant anything Ed Broadbent would have been PM since 1975. Don't get suckered by stuff that ain't important."

BCL, did you read my NDP caveat? This is why I ignore Layton, except for perhaps Quebec, because his numbers do translate to growing support. However, it IS important for people who want to lead a country. Go look at every presidential race, past PM duels, and you'll find these numbers DO matter. I agree on the NDP, but you're throwing the baby out with....

Steve V said...

Dan

Those Ontario numbers are really quite bad for Harper. One poll, but...

Tof KW said...

Dan F said...
This town of Voterich, Ontario sounds like a nice place.

Sister town to Goderich, Ontario. Lakeside beach, lots of Victorian homes, pretty downtown area ...you should plan your next holiday.

Dame said...

You are as always very modest when analyzing all this.... you can't do what I am doing now.

HE HE HE HE HE here we go .. as we should …. things seems to add up to reality...

all the headline writers are in shock?

and newly minted senators are crying ??? heheheheh

Gene Rayburn said...

Goderich is very pretty. My folks live nearby in Kincardine. Maybe Voterich is one of those tiny villages nearby like Bervie or Greenock. Time to get a map

Jerry Prager said...

The Trudeau-Broadbent dynamic is beginning to unfold, so yes, Jack doesn't get power, but he gets a place in history as the moral power behind Ignatieff's minority, a minority that will not only restore Canada, but help us become who the world needs us to be, the tipping point on the way forward.
So look back on this night and remember that this was the point on which the balance shifted.
Harper is bleeding everywhere, todays Liberal G8 electronic paper trail will stand with best stories of how book keepers can bring down people like Al Capone and Stephen Harper. The Giorno-Carson letters to the ethics commissioner all come back to the PMO, all the trails of corruption lead back to Stephen. The ship of his uber control state will begin to leak ever more stories of his lunatic drive for power.
What we have here is an opera, akin to Faust, and the devil is due.

Jerry Prager said...

Another leak http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/978054--pro-life-backers-shaped-tory-decision-to-defund-planned-parenthood

Jerry Prager said...

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/977991--don-t-vote-conservative-newcomers-urged?bn=1
another boot to the Harper shins by immigration lawyers

Gayle said...

According to At Issue tonight Harper may now be first in Quebec (Crop). They think this may lead to more votes on Ontario. The question is whether this will translate to more seats or more vote splitting.

I like NDP policies but I never thought Canadians would vote for them as more than a third party. Could people actually be shifting that far to the left?

Rotterdam said...

Shock poll out tomorrow.
CROP
NDP in first place in Quebec.

Gayle said...

Errr

That would be Layton first in Quebec.

Jerry Prager said...

They like to vote for a native son.

Steve V said...

Gayle

The interesting part, the conbots here haven't figured out that if the NDP pickups seats from the Bloc, it makes a coalition more likely. Duceppe is worried about the NDP, those are the seats in play. No foresight.

rockfish said...

What we don't know is how deep that Quebec support could be -- mile wide, inch deep etc. Also, our organization (and obviously the Bloc's, too) trumps the NdP by a wide margin... and what may happen is the Ndp shifts its funds and attention to la belle province. Could prove very interesting, if true.

Gayle said...

So far no other party has really gone after the NDP. I imagine that's going to change.

Steve V said...

rockfish

That's a big poll in Quebec, it opens up a host of new scenarios nobody dared consider. A small move, everyone gives disproportionate attention to, but it actually causes more momentum.

Tof KW said...

If crop is right and the NDP are indeed #1 in Quebec, watch Duceppe turn the BQ's guns directly at Layton. Until now he's been given nothing but positive press in Quebec, hence the favorable poll numbers. That's about to change.

Tof KW said...

Gayle wrote:
Could people actually be shifting that far to the left?

Short answer is no. But after having witnessed the Peterson phenomenon in the '87 provincial election, I hope Ontario isn't stupid enough to forget the NDP government they once elected here. Outside of Rae and a couple of senior ministers, that entire administration was a joke. They make Harper's gang look good.

Vive la Fédération said...

Layton's popularity and impressive French make me think he's the one to watch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_kH6jS6zeA

Jerry Prager said...

tof kw, I'll take Bob Rae's government over Mike Harris' nasty government every day of the week.

JohnH said...

Ok so EKOS, Nanos and Angus Reid have now all shown a basic statistical tie between the Liberals and NDP NATIONALLY in their latest polls. You still think Jack's leadership numbers aren't affecting voting intentions?

I think it's past time the Liberals start attacking the NDP. Ignatieff is in Westmount Ville Marie today according to the Globe and that happens to be one of the few places the NDP actually were targeting in Quebec so that would be a good place to start.

I know there's no chance of the NDP actually winning more seats than the Libs on May 2nd, but the optics of a national tie between the Libs and NDP certainly don't help our ability to close our gap on the Cons. We need to get back to having a closer gap between Libs and Cons than between us and NDP. So time for the kids gloves to come off towards Layton in my view.

JohnH said...

I should note that two out of those three polls (EKOS and Angus Reid) show the Libs below their 2008 result popular vote wise and it's because we've bled to the NDP (Nanos has us only 0.5% above 2008 and with our worst polling result with them of the entire campaign so far). It was a mistake to write the NDP off I think.