Friday, April 01, 2011

New Polls

Two heavyweight pollsters out today, the NANOS rolling poll shows little movement, decent Conservative lead, but room for some Liberal optimism. Everyone waiting for EKOS, and he comes out with a fairly good poll for the Conservatives:
Cons 36.9%
Libs 26.2%
NDP 17.2%
Greens 8.7%

Week to week, the Conservatives up 1.6%, Liberals down 1.9%, NDP up 3%, Greens down 1.9%. Of note, unlike others EKOS shows a NDP rebound, although it comes off a particularly bad number the week prior. A big jump, but still below 08 levels, so the overall sentiments still hold, although conflicting evidence. A sizable Conservative, 3.5% larger than at the start of the campaign.

As with other pollsters, the Conservatives are opening up a very large lead in Ontario. People will note, even when the Liberals closed in the NANOS poll, it came at the expense of NDP, the Conservatives doing quite well in Ontario:
Cons 41.6%
Libs 32.2%
NDP 15.5%
Greens 8.4%

Again, while the NDP is up nationally poll to poll, I'd hardly call 15.5% in Ontario good news. What is objectively good news, the Conservatives are now polling in the 40% and above range regularly in Ontario, a "breakout" signal. It might be time to consider if the coalition argument isn't getting some traction in Ontario. People recall Ontario moved markedly when the coalition threat came, maybe there is some underlying method to the apparent Conservative madness. Just a suggestion, let's keep an open mind, my conclusions can't be stubborn in nature. Let's watch it play out.

One HUGE caveat with these numbers. I was noting to a friend this morning, in relation to the NANOS poll, that most of our "gains" had come in regions other than Ontario. I felt this a particularly good sign, since my long held belief is that Ontario is the most volatile of all, while trending Conservative, softer than a Stephen Harper debate pledge. In other words, I'm not going to become despondent based on Ontario, concerned but full realizing it has the capacity to swing back in a big way. However, the reality is a move to the Conservatives in Ontario, so it's noteworthy news for them, no question about it.

It's going to be quite the ride...

3 comments:

Omar said...

Oh, Ontario. How the mighty has fallen. Sadly, not a leader.

Jerry Prager said...

Here's where the numbers will begin to change, the young have decided they want to join the democratic revolution, throughout this campaign, fortress MSM will no longer be able to hide the fact that large democracy movements in Britain and Canada are underway, or take that Canadian youth are about to change the turnout numbers, and alter the course of history.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEf34V2rmaM

17 said...

Off topic, but I want to rant about the plan to eliminate the party subsides. The popular argument seems to be that it benefits the Conservatives because their fundraising is much better.

The actual reason, I think, that this benefits the Conservatives is much more long term in its vision. Harper wants to polarize Canada's political landscape into two parties. He thinks, probably rightly, that without the subsidies the left leaning parties will have to merge into one to be viable - pushing the Liberals out of the middle into the "left". In other words, he wants the Liberals to be the Democrats and the Conservative to be the Republicans.

Not only would this set up, over time, promote a corporatist agenda, but it would also give them more time in government.

Any thoughts?