Saturday, April 09, 2011

Stunner

Rarely do you see a poll- particularly with the daily slew- that makes you do a double take, but this Nanos poll this morning is simply stunning. Still early, only one pollster, maybe a couple bad nights just need to work through the rolling total, caveat, caveats, but I can't remember the NDP at 8.4% in Ontario, alarming evidence of a complete collapse.

Yesterday, in the comments, we were talking about vote splitting, the potential NDP erosion as factor for the other parties. However, and again BIG caveats, if anything like Nanos held on election day, it's hard to fathom the consequence. In fact, the conventional wisdom might need a readjustment, utter collapse, hard to see who the ultimate benefactor would be.

Nanos shows a dead heat in Ontario:
Libs 42.8% (up 4.4%)
Cons 42.1% (down 3.3%)
NDP 8.4% (down 2.8%)
Greens 5.1% (up 1.1%)

Hard pressed to remember as high a Liberal tally in recent memory. It is worth noting here, in the past, when one party touches or surpasses 40%, the other main is well back. Here we an anomaly, both parties about 40% concurrently. How that translates to seats, a bit "game changy" to say the least. The NDP have had two consecutive abysmal nights of polling in Ontario. Of note, high profile rallies for both the Liberals and Conservatives Thursday night in Hamilton, a NDP stronghold.

In Atlantic Canada, we see a nice chart for the Liberals, as they steadily come back and now best the Conservatives by the slightest of margins. Again though, the same dynamic as Ontario, both main parties very strong, at the same time, with the NDP now down to a low water 11.2%.

Quebec caught my eye in one respect, the Liberals are up 3 straight nights, from 4th in the province to a 2nd at 25%. Small gains, but better than the previous trend.

Things change quickly with polls, particularly in elections, so the NDP could well turn it around, Layton an able and attractive debator. However, my perceptions are now validated, this campaign isn't going well for the NDP, their policies are mostly rehash, there is no "buzz" with anything they are presenting. This bizarre proposal to make gang participation illegal(as if gangsters are law abiding), an issue they chose to highlight one day, evidence of a campaign not quite resonating. Early days, but concerning days, no question about it.

18 comments:

Omar said...

NDP supporters may be flighty, but they're not stupid. The Liberals may not be the best of options for them, but any progressive worth their salt knows Harper has got to go. It would be nice if Bloc supporters came to the same conclusion. If it weren't for the personal popularity of Gilles Duceppe, I think there's a possibility they would.

Steve V said...

It would appear the Lib platform is making it easy for some to swallow and come our way. What I wonder, and the polls suggest, we might be gaining on our left flank, bleeding a bit on our right?? Big, big question moving forward, most important of the campaign IMHO.

Steve V said...

For example, here we have the Libs 1% above the 2006 campaign, but the Cons are 4% above?

Omar said...

I think the best (only?) way to combat the bleed to the right is to make Harper the issue. Bang home the messages of autocratic authority, dishonesty, contemptuous behavior, spendthrift habits, unaccountability, etc, etc.. Make these soft right voters completely understand what is at stake if Harper continues at the helm. Canadians don't like this guy much. Strongly remind them why.

Steve V said...

I firmly believe we can win back any soft support on the right, it's not parked, it's idling. It's also true about votes we are picking up from NDP.

Just noting another round of "whoa" with the polls. It goes without saying, all I'm doing here is noting relatively remarkable results. We haven't seen a poll give the NDP such low scores in two regions, nor have we seen the Libs so high in Ontario in quite some time, and this includes OUTLIERS.

Jason Cherniak said...

I missed that part of it. I was more focused on the Liberals being ahead of the Conservatives in all regions east of the Praries.

Indeed, if it weren't for a massive jump in the Praries, I think the Tories might have been down to 37/38% in that poll. Was that regional shift a blip? Did the Liberals have a similar blip elsewhere? I cannot wait to see how this plays out over the next few days.

Either this poll is an outlier on a regional basis, or it is the precurser to a major shift.

Steve V said...

Good point, the high Con score on the Prairies inflates their total, even though seats aren't at stake.

The Writ 2011 said...

This is encouraging. While the NDP have some admirable positions, it remains difficult to understand why progressive voters would continue to support the NDP when doing so will almost surely lead to another Conservative government, and possibly a Conservative majority at that.

As for hammering away at the issues of honesty, political accountability, and reflection of what used to be Canadian values, we are addressing those issues at a new blog site called The Writ: http://thewrit2011.blogspot.com

Jymn said...

Could the jump in the prairies for the Conservatives be solely due to Harper's gun registry pledge?

sharonapple88 said...

The popularity of various parties seems to depend on where they've been last. Ignatieff spent some days in Quebec, and then the Liberal party gets a bump. (Take that reporters who were talking about the collapse of the Liberal vote in the province.) As far as I know, Layton hasn't spent as much time in Ontario as Ignatieff and Harper have. It'll be interesting to see if the levels remain after Layton does a run through the province.

Jerry Prager said...

As some one who writes on the mafia in Canada, the fact that isn't illegal to belong to an organized crime group is a real flaw in the law.
However, one thing is clear, this election is about the survival of democracy, I know lots of people who vote Green and NDP and there is no doubt in any of their minds that Harper is an enemy of democracy who needs to be stopped. It says nothing about long term anything, just this election, and what has to be done.

kirbycairo said...

I Jerry is right on the money. I would certainly be closer to the NDP in a normal election but I can see how many NDP voters are just thinking that the Harper regime has to go. I think it depends on the riding but I am in Poilievre's riding and the Liberals are the only hope to defeat the Cons. Strategic voting is a must for many NDP supporters.

rockfish said...

I'd suggest the evidence that these numbers are real -- the shift from Manitoba east -- was that Harper finally made a mea culpa on the audience thing after playing Alfred E. Nuemann for four days. He doesn't bend unless its because his stubbornness is costing him at the ballot box. No doubt Canadian taxpayers still have those Harper 'fucos' groups on retainer...

Steve V said...

rockfish

I also heard him yesterday not mention coalition once, all kinds of different language, but not one utterance. A first as far as I can recall.

Steve V said...

sharon

I agree, there does seem to be a loose co-relation.

Cooled Down said...

I would have to agree with some of the comments here about the NDP supporters maybe switching to Liberal in order to remove Harper. I think the majority of us agree that Harper has to go, and if that means a Liberal minority, then that is what it will take.

I just hope everyone understands that what Harper has done with the finances of the government and the general running of it was wrong and he doesn't deserve to be in power anymore.

If we have a Conservative majority... we will be stuck with the same situations we had when Mulroney was in power..... no real care about the ramifications of decisions made.

WesternGrit said...

And in a lot of ridings we Liberals are voting (and even working for) the NDP candidates who have the best chance of knocking off the Conservative.

Dame said...

Five small party with their peculiar shades are the reason Harper is in Power today.
How people are NOT seeing it ??
It is the damnest truth.
The NDP / and now MS May with the marihuana crowd / are doing only one thing voting FOR HARPER...
wake up people...
we are just the joke of the World...