Tuesday, April 05, 2011

Latest Nanos Digestion

The gap still very significant, but a large move in the Nanos poll. In addition, for the first time in over a year a pollster pegs Liberal support about 40% in Ontario, now ahead of the Conservatives in the volatile province.

The nationals numbers show a large 4.3% narrowing in one day, which now means Nanos is more in line with the Harris Decima poll trend:
Cons 39.8% (42.3%)
Libs 30.2% (28.4%)
NDP 16.5% (16.4%)
Greens 4% (3.8%)

A 13.8% lead is now down to 9.6%, must have been quite a day of polling yesterday. Still a huge Conservative lead, but there are signs of life for the Liberals.

The Ontario numbers are quite striking, for a number of reasons. I can't recall such strength in numbers with both the main parties concurrently, a VERY worrying sign for the NDP, the squeeze apparently on:


You see a very nice, established trendline for the Liberals in Ontario, as they reach a pretty impressive tally. Of note, Harper was in Ontario all day yesterday scaring citizens, while Ignatieff was on the east coast. A 7% swing in one day, the Liberals gain at both the Conservative and NDP expense. It's fair to mention here that the NDP are below 15%, they can't seem to find any traction, eclipsed by the Liberals. In terms of vote splitting, this could be an important dynamic, raising higher the already lofty Liberals seat translation. Let's see if it holds, but all the pollsters have shown an improving Liberal fortune in Ontario, so something appears to be afoot, for the time being anyway.

The Liberals are simply dreadful in Quebec, so bad their numbers are a drag on the national presentation. Here we have a poll with Liberals well above 40% in Ontario, and we still barely break 30% nationally. Ignatieff is set to roll into Quebec today I believe, which is good, because the NDP nipping at our heels, mired in the teen routine, isn't going to cut it. I appreciate the Liberals can only hope to pickup a few seats, optimally, but there is no reason we can't get back to a more respectable showing. People forget, the Liberals were once statistically tied with the Bloc in Quebec under Ignatieff, over 30%, so there is an audience available. I would also add our platform should be a good sell in Quebec.

All in all, the Liberals have to like the trend, the Conservatives a bit nervous.

15 comments:

Jerry Prager said...

The Consortium, is doing it's best to keep the spin cycle going that Harper paid for through Action Plan Media Scam, but eventually, they are going to cut their own losses, in order to maintain the last shred of their credibility among the non-internet crowd who still think tv and print is real news.

Scott in Montreal said...

It's still trending well for the Liberals overall. And seeing that red line surpass the blue one on the Ontario graph should provide a huge boost.

As for Quebec, remember that our premier is massively unpopular due to getting hammered daily by the opposition and the media for years now (and rightly so) over his government's notorious corruption.

I sometimes wonder if the people answering the pollsters' calls here are clear on the question they are answering. While this province's voters are supposedly historically astute, I have my doubts that they truly understand the difference between the provincial and federal Liberals.

I do know that Layton was on Tout le Monde en Parle two nights ago, and Ignatieff would be wise to get on there too. It is a very widely-watched show, and it provides the best platform there is for someone trying to introduce themselves into the political discourse.

Tof KW said...

Scott nailed it, the reason the Libs are dragging in Quebec has a lot to do with Charest's government.

Ignatieff and the team need to do more there in the next few weeks to confirm the fed & provincial wings are two very different entities. Also to nip the NDP playing footsie with the soft nationalists. They need to be called out on this.

Gayle said...

I am cautiously optimistic about these numbers. Hopefully it is a sign of a trend and not a blip. Hard to tell at this point.

Jerry Prager said...

Considering that Charest is a Mulroney conservative, then corruption spins that way.

Jerry Prager said...

The further Harper slips the more irrational he's going to become.

Steve V said...

There is no question the fed Libs really caved in Que when Charest got into trouble. That suggests we are on the wrong side of the debate, but it also suggests this isn't about Ignatieff. The French debate will be key, and hopefully this swing today starts to lay the groundwork rationale for voting Liberal.

And yes, it's time for the Libs to take the gloves off with the NDP, because they are playing footsie with the separatists, no question.

Kirk said...

Quote of the day:

“I think we are in a very bad place when you’ve got a Prime Minister who does a background check on his audience at a democratic crowd and doesn’t seem to do a background check on the people he hires in the Prime Minister’s Office, like Mr. Carson,” Mr. Ignatieff said.

I'll refrain from repeating myself on the subject of polls.

Kirk said...

Oh, and in second place for quote of the day:

Ottawa’s fighter-jet estimate ‘all hogwash,’ U.S. watchdog warns

And in third place (from CBC radio news so I'm not being exact):

Stephan Harper: "well, um...um, well, um...these things are all taken care of by staffers" referring to barring people from his photo-ops.

Kirk said...

Harper had his "Dion" moment with his response about barring people. Wonder if the media will run with it at all.

Oh, who am I kidding the media won't run with it at all.

Tof KW said...

Steve wrote:
And yes, it's time for the Libs to take the gloves off with the NDP, because they are playing footsie with the separatists, no question.

Exhibit A as printed in Le Devoir:

"A Québec solidaire militant, Alexandre Boulerice, also a spokesperson for CUPE, is the NDP candidate in the constituency Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie. In an email exchange, Mr. Boulerice underlined that he was still a member of the Québec solidaire and a separatist. "Anyone who supports the NDP program can be a member. We can place in the forefront, social and environmental issues before the national question."

Le Devoir is of course a French daily, but thanks to the wonders of online translation, we all can enjoy...

Québec solidaire veut marginaliser sa 'gauche radicale'

And there is plenty more ammunition where that came from. I'm sure western NDP supporters need to hear more about this.

OK LPC warroom, hop to it! Don't expect us disgruntled Tories to do your legwork for you.

Tof KW said...

My link didn't seem to work right, here is the full address for that article:

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/319773/quebec-solidaire-veut-marginaliser-sa-gauche-radicale

Steve V said...

These F-35 costs have to come to the fore at some point. Harper simply can't challenge Libs on fiscal situation, until he addresses the bogus numbers. Media asks, he replies, but no follow through. The evidence is in, Harper's numbers are PURE BULLSHIT and they damn well know it.

Marpman said...

The Conservatives have quietly being attempting to quash the Afghanistan inquiry findings. They must be terrified that this will come out during the campaign.
I think that the LPC should re-draw attention to this, another great example of a government being out-of-touch with the core values which matter to Canadians.
I vote against torture.

Jerry Prager said...

Since the Bloc is a social democratic party when it is not being a separatiste party, it would seen entirely logical that a social democrat would support a victory in that column if it can't get a victory in the separatiste column. Don't seen the crime against democracy there.