A comprehensive EKOS poll done last year:
Pollsters know that youth don't vote, relative to other subsets. When polls are fashioned, they try to represent turnout, they weight based on likelihood. This dynamic means that if youth do decide to vote above historical norms, they could well be the "X factor", warping the reliability of the assumptions. I know pollsters look for "likely" voters, but I also think they weight beyond that, and this could skew, IF youth actually show up.
Two more examples today, that things seem different this time. Mercer was on Question Period, and was downright GIDDY at the way in which the vote mob phenomenon is sweeping this country. Later, a CBC panel, wherein guests spoke about "unprecedented" youth engagement this campaign. More anecedotal evidence, that tends to feed a fascinating development. In addition, this issue of 700 students showing up to vote, supports increased engagement. The fact the Conservatives tried to disenfranchise, I see as a catalyst to bring more young people to the polls.
Nothing is assured, but the signs are concrete enough to actually posit some optimism. What excites me- and this may explain Conservative reaction- if the youth come out, it works for both the Liberals and NDP. With so many close ridings, rather than a vote split, a stronger youth presence would ENHANCE both parties, relative to the Conservatives. In other words, it could help some Liberals get elected, as WELL as the NDP, all at the expense of the Conservatives. One additional point, although all these intiatives are entirely NON PARTISAN, because of kicking people out, going to Elections Canada, etc, I get the distinct impression it is the NON Conservative youth vote MOST motivated.
I won't be surprised if the youth vote fails to materialize, once again this election. But, I also won't be shocked if we see a few perplexed faces come election night, as a subset challenges accepted norms and translated results. Something to watch for....
10 comments:
Although its been six years since I have graduated from university, I do have some idea how politics for the young works. I have found, you need someone to excite them to bring them out, not just motivate them by whom they despise. Harper is not doubt unpopular amongst younger voters, but Bush in 2004 in the US was yet since Kerry was someone who didn't motivate them, the youth vote that was suppose defeat Bush never materialized. By contrast, Obama who excited them brought many out in large numbers. Ignatieff is like Kerry and Harper like Bush, otherwise the youth don't like Harper, but Ignatieff doesn't excite them. Also the minority of young voters who are right wing tend to be the most motivated. When at university, the largest political club at SFU between 2000-2005 was the BC Young Liberals (the Liberals in BC are centre-right and a Liberal/Conservative coalition) despite the fact most didn't like them. Likewise the Canadian Alliance in the 2000 election came in fourth amongst student voters yet had the largest club. Otherwise those on the right are the minority amongst their friends so they are motivated to show up while those on the left have mostly left wing friends and assume most Canadians are on the left since most in their 20s don't have a lot of friends over 40 who are more likely to be Conservative. That is not say it couldn't happen, I am just saying I am skeptical and I say this from a strictly non-partisan point of view. As for voter mobs, many are organized by student unions and I know from my time in university, most of those students vote no matter what. To get a better picture you need to go in the hallway of the university and ask students if they voted in the past election and how they voted and whom they plan to vote for.
On my blog I predicted the Tories would get between 113-173 seats while Liberals between 53-108 seats so the Liberals beating the Tories in seats looks next to impossible at this point. I think turnout will be a big factor. If under 55%, the Tories will probably win a majority while if over 65% they will probably have their seat margins cut dramatically but still finish ahead of the Liberals. The Tories have the most motivated base of all parties and are the least likely to switch, but by the same token have limited appeal beyond their base.
Sounds fair enough.
Then again if the liberals do win we'll be talking about the polls and predictions like another Dewey defeats Truman.
Their presence will be felt in the polls after the Easter weekend.
Right wing youth had been the most engaged, but they are now being overwhelmed because the issue for all youth is the potential reality of four years of Harper majority rule: they are the children of CAPP - what is a vote mob but a flash rally that CAPP used across the country last year during Prorogoue where ever Harper's cabinet ministers went during their calibrations: some of them were among the swelling ranks of CAPP, some of them were on the streets during the cross-Canada rally, but then came the civil rights violations during the G20 last June when they realized that this game is played for keeps. The G20 and politicized them because it caught most young people's attention via the internet, then Egypt rose peacefully while another military dynasty took power, and then Japan, and now Lybia, so the need for a better future is becoming more pressing.
Only Harper could have forced the Liberal Party to go to the wire for Democracy, only Harper could have awakened the children of Canada's disllusioned majority and sent them towards the polls.
No polling or survey company has solved the problem of interviewing people who do not use a landline, which pretty much describes Generation D.
On-line polls are really not random as they all require respondents to pre-register, which introduces bias into any sampling.
So, the public polls will be useless in telling us what impacts, if any, the youth vote might have on the campaign.
If you look at the age breakdowns for EKOS, you see what ottlib is talking about. Out of a 71 sample for Atlantic Canada, FOUR are under 25. For B.C. out of 78, again FOUR under 25, the NDP actually score 0% in that age group for the province. Clearly, there is some mechanism to make up for lack of respondents, to artificially use other larger under 25 samples and then input into the polls. Who knows, the big poll I cited with the graph here could be the template for breaking it down.
That's always been true --- the youth vote has been underrepresented in polling, but equally less engaged in voting. Are there issues in this election that could effect the traditional voting numbers? It would appear to be, at least on a minor scale, the focus on education and opportunity, fiscal responsibility and health care. The environment, despite the predeliction over the previous four years, hasn't registered to the level I expected it to -- tho i'm not surprised.
Certainly, the CON attack ads on Ignatieff likely were equally as effective on all demographics, right? But what if those looking to cast their first vote, who are familiar with the roll of bullies in the world through young eyes, have a different take? What if their priorities are aligned with a more positive message? Would these, along with the stories of the governing party's attempts at preventing participation, at its subliminal war against engagement, be moved to vote if the stars aligned? I agree with Steve, we've seen signs of this before, but... let's look at another inverse possibility; part of Harper's most loyal supporters were small c-conservatives, economic conservatives who have seen a man twist so many ways to avoid fiscal responsibility. What would happen if a higher than normal # of 45+ decided to stay away after all the cynical tricks played at their expense by Harper, at the same time a new core of youth voters came crashing at the gates? Now wouldn't that be something... Rise Up! is right...
Harper's core hasn't shifted an iota so the small c-conservatives don't care what he does, so long as he isn't a Liberal. He could be sacrificing babies in the PMO and his core would still vote for him.
Rise Up.
Post a Comment