Friday, April 15, 2011

Latest Polls

Both EKOS and Nanos out, as we start to get some post debate feedback.

EKOS had shown a sharp narrowing, in the wake of the G8 controversy, the gap down to a mere 5% in their last two day sample out Wednesday. We now see the race widening back to a still manageable 7.5% gap, as Graves sees little debate effect. Of note here, both EKOS and Nanos show the Liberals off marginally, the gap wider than it was going into the debates. However, the change is very slight, so it is fair to say the debates haven't moved votes in any dramatic way. What that means for the Liberals remains to be seen, but our support has clearly stalled, the debates failing to give any momentum.

EKOS finds both Liberal and NDP support up in Quebec, with the NDP in particular reaching new heights for an EKOS poll. EKOS also finds continued Bloc erosion, now below 30%, which is in contrast to Nanos who sees a bit of a post debate bounce. I suppose we will have to weight for other pollsters to weigh in, or subsequent results to ascertain if there is any post-debate move in Quebec. Given the rave reviews for Duceppe, "instant" polls that gave him the debate handily, I'm more inclined to believe some bounce, or at the very least a firming up of Bloc support.

In Ontario, both pollsters show quite similar results, a statistical tie, both main parties howering just below the 40% threshold. Both pollsters do show the Liberals slightly off from pre-debate levels, but nothing of consequence, furthering the view of a fairly bland debate. Interesting too, so little movement, despite a large uptick in viewership, relative to the 2008 debate.

The polls are telling me that the NDP have some momentum. I am cautious though, because in terms of seats, Quebec still seems a reach, distribution wise. That said, the NDP have wind in their sails, maybe more important, they have shaken off the "squeezed out" talk that was hobbling them pre-debate.

In addition, the Liberals have lost momentum coming out of the debates. Ignatieff probably helped his personal standing, which could bear fruit later, but there is no question the debates won't produce the "bounce" we had hoped for. It took some time for the very attractive, vibrant guy on the campaign trail to translate to the debate, as Ignatieff seemed a bit over prepped in my opinion, searching for pre-determined lines, rather than riffing.

With regard to the Conservatives, fairly static and clearly not the spread they need in Ontario to have the slightest hope of a majority. The Liberals are pretty strong, their numbers have maintained a high levels, so the majority talk might be more pundit inspired than empirically based. As I mentioned earlier this chatter might help the Liberals, we shall see, but the Conservatives also don't seem to have any real momentum in this campaign. In fact, I haven't been impressed with their team at all, if not for the pre-writ one sided onslaught, this performance might be getting more scrutiny.

We are starting to head down the home stretch now...

33 comments:

Dan F said...

We should see fallout from the Guelph incident starting with tomorrow morning's Nanos, and continuing as kids go home for passover/easter and talk with friends & family about it...

Steve V said...

I agree Dan.

Tof KW said...

One thing these polls are showing is how far off the mark the pundits are. So many of them dismissed Duceppe's performance in the French language debate - and even I thought he was flat compared to his strong showing in the English debate the previous night. Yet most viewer polls show the Quebecois think Duceppe won on Wednesday.

Goes to show the pundits are just flapping their gums and enjoying the sounds of their own voices ...kind of like CBC's 'At Issue' panel last night.

Steve V said...

Hebert was simply bizarre last night. I usually enjoy her, but honestly, I've found her analysis pretty useless this whole campaign. A good pundit is fluid, develops theories, but doesn't get stubborn, because you end up warping objective facts to fit them into your thesis, in the name of ego. It will betray you ever time.

vezina said...

The trend since the start has the Liberals up, stalled, down a little, then repeated... BUT the trend is UP...

Yes the NDP have had a blimp...

BUT ON Election DAY Voters will CHOSE Democracy101 and the Choices will be Liberal First (and where it does not matter GREEN).

Watch voter turnout... DEMOCRACY is THE SLEEPER and IGGY Gets it.

The Liberals will win the most seats - many many more than anyone expects...

In 1993 John Deverell and I wrote a book called Democracy EH? we predicted the PCs would go form 211 seats to less than 2. We were right then. OUR New Bok for 2011 will be released next week at http://www.democracy101.info

Tof KW said...

Steve V said...
Hebert was simply bizarre last night.

Indeed! I so enjoyed Hebert in the past, and now lately I'm finding her commentaries more off-the-mark with each passing day.

Her editorials are no longer must-reads for me. And if she continues down this path, soon they will be bird-cage liners.

Steve V said...

Vezina

The NDP appear to have more momentum than they actually do, really it coming off the abysmal lows, but it's all relative in this game.

rockfish said...

I don't know if the Guelph incident will be reflected more than a dribble in the next polling... students, who by and large are hard to track by polling companies, are underrepresented in these numbers. I believe that is one thing which is going to create a widening gap IF the voting rate of this group grows, as we need to encourage. That could swing 2-3 % down the line.
I'm more expecting the Guergis issue to start causing a sticky mess and some polling collateral in Ontario, especially in southern and 905 region.
That being said, Riley's advice on putting economics (and not just 'we want people to go to school') closer to the lead message is something the campaign needs to listen to.

Steve V said...

I suspect this incident will increase turnout at campuses across the country.

Tof KW said...

rockfish said...
I'm more expecting the Guergis issue to start causing a sticky mess and some polling collateral in Ontario, especially in southern and 905 region.

Don't know about that. I wouldn't expect it to do much outside of Simcoe-Grey, and that said I think you can call just about call this riding for Guergis. Or if the CPC candidate is strong enough it just might let the Lib candidate sneak through the middle. As for the CPC winning ...forgetaboutit! Guergis has a lot of sympathy in her riding thanks to how Harper handled this mess.

Tof KW said...

BTW - on this Guergis topic I'm making the bold prediction that there will be 3 independents in the next parliament. Aside from André Arthur and Guergis, watch the results in Edmonton-Sherwood Park on May 2nd (and you thought Edmonton-Strathcona was the AB riding to watch).

Gayle said...

I'm still a concerned the NDP will split the vote. The LPC have to hammer that point. Ignatieff is talking about it but he to be clear about what happens with vote splitting.

Steve V said...

I agree, we've moved from NDP vote collapsing to more concern about vote splitting.

Dana said...

Splitting the vote is what the NDP wants to do. They've made it clear as a bell.

Vezina said...

BIG BIG NEWS and MOVEMENT will come overnight.

The WOMENS and Youth Conservative vote will vapourize overnight.

Will split between the GREEN Party and Liberals.

ELECTION IS NOW going to focus on two LEADERS and has the POTENTIAL to become a two Person Race and TWO PARTY battle on ELECTION DAY between Michael Ignatieff and Elizabeth MAY.

HARPER MAY WIN LESS SEATS Than KIM Campbell...

Polls already showing HARPER PEAKED before the ELECTION, there was a little blip for the debates, and IGGY has a couple of blips, but the TREND is LIBERAL.

NOW that the Womens and YOUTH vote is in PLAY, it has only TWO places to go...

WATCH THE Polls OVERNIGHT And for the next three days...

DEMOCRACY - MATTERS - MOST.

Tof KW said...

Liberals need to hit the NDP hard - just noticed Layton taking a shot at the Libs over the Reformatory's U of Guelph FUBAR.

Jerry Prager said...

You know what matters ? CARP 42% point something for Cons, 42% point slightly less for LIBS, the Voters Mob movement and this Conservative, Guelph based blow up of the special poll shut down gone awry, plus the vast array of facebook allies forged by CAPP during the anti-prorogue movement. We SHALL overcome.

Jerry Prager said...

We're going to drag the beast down and bury it.

Steve V said...

KW

NDP are running attack ads against us right now, which is sort of amusing given their first day "we are focused on the conservatives" bs.


Jerry

Ignatieff event in Sudbury right now, PACKED again. This is much, much different from 08, so it's one intangible that suggests Libs will come out in better numbers than the last election.

Vezina said...

Everyone just keep going until NOMINATIONS CLOSE and EASTER.

GOOD FRIDAY will be a very GREEN Day as well, and un SUNDAY we will lokk at Petitioning the KING during the ROYAL Wedding...

The we all come together and elect all 308 MPS who AGREE to give us DIRECT DEMOCRACY on MAY 3.

The whole plan is set and the events are going to occur...

WATCH www.Democracy101.info

OFFICIAL Canada 2011 ELECTION LAUNCH of the Riding by riding INTERNET PRIMARY ELECTION - after EASTER...


HELP HELP HELP.....

WE WIN IT ALL.......

Jerry Prager said...

The idea that a vote for the NDP is a vote for Harper is stupid, there are way to many ridings when a vote for someone other than NDP is a vote for Harper. Ignatieff still needs to address liberal democratic voters as if we know who we are.

ottlib said...

One good week out of three for the NDP is not nearly good enough.

We all know that bounces like the one the NDP are enjoying tend to fade as time goes on. The NDP will be hard pressed to sustain whatever momentum they might have going forward.

Rotterdam said...

I want some of what vezina trophy is smoking.

Steve V said...

It doesn't mix well with what you're on.

Dana said...

Too late, Steve. I think Rotterdam already OD'd on something. Prolly harpergyric acid diassholeamide.

Tomm said...

You guys seem to be having a lot of fun.

So you think Geurgis will actually win Simcoe?

Guelph is more interesting. Elections Canada allowed voting in Guelph that they wouldn't have in the Ukraine (vote early and vote often shouldn't be their slogan). But I agree that student voting should be way up this time. All 3 of my voting kids are engaged.

Steve V said...

I'm embarrassed you think that about Guelph Tomm. This is the problem with visiting Blogging Tories, you have NO concept of the objective reality. Go look at what non conbots have said on the legitimacy, it's a slam dunk AGAINST your position. My goodness.

I predict Guergis wins.

Jerry Prager said...

For the record on the Special Ballot it was not the first but the third election in which a special election was held at the U of G
http://oncampus.macleans.ca/education/2011/04/15/votes-cast-at-u-of-guelph-valid-elections-canada/

I Think the 'a vote for NDP is a vote for Harper' offensive is failing because it is offensive, and wrong in many ridings. It is hurting the Lib. Iggy's attendance record going unanswered also didn't help, hes responding now, but ah well.

Jerry Prager said...

Thomm: also on the Guelph issue
"A spokesperson for Elections Canada told the Guelph Mercury that special ballots had been held on campus for the past two federal elections without any issues.

Elections Canada has also asked that all returning officers stop setting up such polls at universities."

That second bit is part of the Harpercon disgraceful twisting of this issue, they should be holding more special ballots not cancelling them. Well done Harper, cancelling democracy through intimidation.

And the Tory spokesmen are lying, the story of Tory workers trying to grab (but being stopped from touching the ballot box) came from students who were there, now the Con has spun it into a lie about Liberal operatives making up stories.

The cons need to be destroyed, and the progressives allowed to take the party back from the Western fascists who now run it.

As for Quebec, and Con growth,. yo0u have to remember Quebec was a fascist province from the 1920's until 1960, the Bloc has unified Quebecers around their 'racial identity', but there are lots of old fascists in Quebec, even Mulroney was mentored by Duplessis' successor Daniel Johnson (SR), which why, since Free Trade, the wealthy have gotten wealthier, the poor poorer, and those in the middle are being torn in two (10% owned 40% over 20 years ago, now they own 60% of the wealth, while half the people in the country now only own 5% of the wealth.)
Corporatism is destroying Canada, and right wing liberals helped, unfortunately.

Steve V said...

"That second bit is part of the Harpercon disgraceful twisting of this issue"

And the faithful swallow it hook line and sinker. SHEEP.

Tomm said...

My point has clearly been proven. If Elections Canada has stopped setting these things up because a party has objected then these voting stations clearly were breaking Election Canada rules.

By the way aren't these rules really, really, really important? Elections Canada has been insisting their rules aren't just there as guidelines, but must be followed.

But nothing to see here except a CPC volunteer that actually read their book. So lets pillory the poor kid.

If the votes have not been collected with the appropriate due process, someone should be asking Elections Canada to explain why these votes are OK to count. That's the real story here, not MI flapping his gums.

Tomm said...

Jerry,

You said:

...The cons need to be destroyed, and the progressives allowed to take the party back from the Western fascists who now run it...."

What a progressive statement.

And you claim that Conservative supporters are mean spirited.

Are you also hoping that the west separates so you can keep your country safe forever from the acidic effect of western libertarians? Come on fess up...

Steve V said...

And my point, that taking your seriously Tomm is a waste of time, is proven once again. Again GOOD GRIEF.