Reviewing the latest batch of polls, one sober reality comes into focus, the Liberals will make their last stand in Ontario, the next five days could well decided the party's historic fate. I'm not overstating, and as David Herle was advising last night, it's imperative that Liberals understand the circumstance at hand and react with an honest assessment. No time for pretending, no time for looking around the room for a comforting voice, it really is as BAD as it looks and we are now in survival mode.
Nanos and Angus Reid both confirm the trend, the NDP still surging to dizzying heights in Quebec, but also a Liberal cratering in Ontario, to desperate levels. A bit of a disconnect in Conservative support, AR has them at their campaign lowest in Ontario, while Nanos has them at a very concerning 47%. Despite the NDP uptick in Ontario, these type of numbers, one has to wonder about the vote splitting factor. In other words, the Liberal argument is now a simple Ontario "stop Harper" cry. Forget flashing the red book around, being serene and feeling good, raise the stakes and circle the wagons, mix up your metaphors, whatever but equate the Liberal survival with the death of moderate politics. A far right PM, a hard left NDP, Ontario the moderate entity, we need you know. This argument necessitates a FRANK reading of the country, one that on the face appears counter-productive, but SPIN is your enemy now, address reality and try to train the gaze of what is at stake here.
Anyone who really wants to get rid of Harper must understand that a Liberal freefall in Ontario most likely helps the Conservatives. Just as we Liberals are see the relative benefit of an NDP surge in Quebec, by dipper friends should also realize that a viable Liberal Party in Ontario is part of any future arrangement equation. With this backdrop in mind, the Liberals have to appeal to Ontarians sense of balance, it's been done before, but it requires an almost soul bearing honesty. As Herle notes, people in a campaign tend to be the last ones that fully appreciate the gravity, if this is the case in 2011, then the Liberal Party may well become a historic artifact. Yes, it is that serious and don't anyone delude themselves into thinking otherwise. How's that for your morning cheer :)