Thursday, June 21, 2007

New Poll

Most of the time, the regional numbers for the big polls are suspect at best, particularly in places like British Columbia, where the sample size is so small to render the results virtually meaningless. With that in mind, this British Columbia specific poll gives a better indication of where the parties really stand:
Federal Tory policies on the environment and Afghanistan have cost the party support in British Columbia, although the Conservatives are ahead of their political competition among decided voters, a new poll suggests.

The Tories have 33 per cent support compared with 29 per cent for the NDP and 28 per cent for the Liberals, according to the survey of 852 B.C. adults conducted by Mustel Group Market Research, and released yesterday.

Movement since last poll:
Liberal support has been stable since the last Mustel survey, conducted in March, but NDP support appears to have increased nine points. In March, the Tories were at 40 per cent support.

The poll shows growing disapproval of Conservative policy, as it relates to the environment and Afghanistan.

Liberal perspective:
Mike Witherly, a strategist for the federal Liberal party in B.C., said he took solace that the level of Liberal support held up in the face of Tory attack ads against Leader St├ęphane Dion.

"Despite their best efforts, they really can't move the dial," Mr. Witherly said.

"It's like we had round one and they threw everything they have got and they got nowhere. If I were a Conservative strategist, I'd be saying, 'What can we possibly do to move our numbers?"

It would appear that the erosion in Conservative support is directly tied to the uptick in NDP support, with the Liberals simply bypassed. The Liberal numbers are static, which seems to mirror the national trend, draw you own conclusions.

If these numbers held in an election, the Conservatives would probably lose seats in B.C.. The list of provinces that show potential seat loss suggests nothing close to a majority, with the prospects of outright defeat more and more likely.


Anonymous said... has such a nice ring. I keep hoping its coming soon

Jeff said...

The Conseratives have lost seats to the Libs and NDP in BC in the last two elections. Even in the last election, the Liberals increased their seatcount there.

I'm not too surprised to hear Liberal support is steady (but not shooting up) there. There's not too much more room for the Libs to grow, as Lib support is confined to Vancouver and Victoria. We might pick up a seat or two, but the real growth potential is in the rural/coastal seats for the NDP, at Con expense. Many seats in BC have historically flipped between the Cons and NDP, Liberals have always been seen as the establishment.

Steve V said...

No Green numbers, put some quick math suggests their total has gone up from the 5% last election. The NDP is virtually at the same total as election night, ditto for the Liberals, down for the Tories, so it would seem the balance has gone Green.

Anonymous said...

Agree with Jeff above about LPC support mainly in Vancouver and Victoria. Can expect that pockets of the Fraser Valley, Thompson-Okanagan, Central Interior and the Peace (it's 'almost Alberta') will remain CPC.

One certainty. Vancouver-Kingsway will not be electing a CPC candidate. What remains to be seen is if that riding swings back to the NDP. Ian Waddell held it for a number of years.

With Stephen Owen stepping down Vancouver-Quadra remains a question mark. They likely won't go NDP but will it stay Liberal or go CPC?

Hedy Fry could be vulnerable in Vancouver-Centre. Largely depends on who the NDP may choose to run there this time around. Having Svend Robinson as their candidate in 2006 was a major gaffe. They would have done much better with Tim Stevenson. I also hear that the Greens plan to have Adrienne Carr as their candidate in VanCentre. She could take some votes from both the Liberals and NDP.

Southern Interior and the Kootenays? Your guess is as good as mine.

Steve V said...

Thanks for the rundown Frank.

Anonymous said...

The next national poll should be intresting, with the BC and Atlantic losses I would expect the Cons to be several points behind the LPC.

If the Cons drop to 25% nationally, expect cracks to start showing in the blogging tories facade of unity.

ottlib said...

My guess is the incumbent advantage will kick in again and the Conservatives will bounce back up to between 34 and 37%.

However, if I am wrong then that would be really significant. (Not because I would be wrong, although that is rare:-)) It would be significant as it could indicate the beginning of a new trend that the Conservatives will definitely not like.

Either way anonymous could be on to something as such a situation could cause some cracks to appear in the Conservative facade.

Anonymous said...

The Cons have max in BC somewhat.

They are bound to lose big time in Southern Interior and the Kootenays if the native land claims issue appears in the radar screen in the winter.

Any gains in the Interior for the Dippers will help them in the Fraser River Valley. Most of the match-ups in BC are Lib-NDP rather than Lib-CPC.

burlivespipe said...

With no election in sight, the tories biggest possible loss is through attrition in defections by Cummings and Moore. Its been rumoured that the two are, in very different ways, stewing in their seats at how Harpor has turned his back on all the 'alliance' principles. Yes, Libs have most of their support in Vancouver and Victoria, but on the outer fringe there are possible breakthroughs (Nw-Coq, Bby-Douglas, mini-Lunn's isle riding), but equally at threat from a CON bounceback (Dahliwal, B-Wilson and Don Bell)... If the next poll doesn't show a mild CON resurgence, to like 33%, I'll eat my cornpipe hat.