Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Best Before Date Expired?

Two polls today, different results, both show the Conservatives fading:
The poll, conducted between April 21-24 for CTV and The Globe and Mail, gives the Conservatives a six-point lead (percentage-point change from a March 20-21 poll in brackets):

Conservatives: 36 per cent (-3)
Liberals: 30 per cent (-1)
NDP: 13 per cent (unchanged)
Bloc Quebecois: 9 per cent (+1)
Green Party: 12 per cent (+3)

Quebec:
Bloc Quebecois: 39 per cent (+6)
Conservatives: 21 per cent (-3)
Liberals: 19 per cent (-5)
Greens: 12 per cent (+1)
NDP: 9 per cent (+1)

Ontario
The Conservatives have lost their post-budget surge in Ontario:

Liberals: 41 per cent (+1)
Conservatives: 33 per cent (-7)
NDP: 16 per cent (+3)
Greens: 11 per cent (+4)

The West(whatever that means):
Out West, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 27 points (50 per cent to 23 per cent). The NDP has a one-point lead over the Greens (14 per cent to 13 per cent).

Unlike today's Decima offering, no NDP bounce, in fact they remain 5 points under their 2006 total. You decide who to believe?

Strategic Council has the Conservatives at a higher level than the Decima poll (36-30), but the trend in both is DOWN. Both polls have the Liberals stable, in the same terrority. Particularly good for the Liberals, Ontario has trended away from the Conservatives. Quebec offers bad news for both, while the Bloc apparently benefits. The West results are essentially useless, because you don't get any provincial breakdown.

Other interesting findings, Kyoto:
Sixty-one per cent say Canada should try to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, while only 32 per cent agree with the view that the Kyoto targets are unachievable

Baird's doom and gloom show failed:
Thirty-six per cent say they find it believable that Kyoto would cost 275,000 jobs and trigger a recession, while 60 per cent don't find it believable. Only eight per cent find the claim very believable, while 25 per cent say it's not believable at all.

Afghanistan:
36 per cent of respondents support the sending of troops, while 57 per cent are opposed. The 'opposition' respondents hold a majority in Ontario and the West, but opposition is particularly pronounced in Quebec. There, 72 per cent of respondents oppose sending troops.

Donolo said it's noteworthy that only six per cent express very strong support, while 26 per cent are very strongly opposed.

A substantial minority, 46 per cent, think the troops should be brought home now. Eighteen per cent think the troops should have been returned after the original February 2007 deadline, and eight per cent support the troops remaining until 2009.

Twenty-four per cent say the troops should stay until Afghanistan is stabilized and rebuilt.

Conclusion, a rough day for Tory fortunes all around. Anyone want to rent a 17000 square foot warehouse?

UPDATE

Wayward son made a relevant point that I failed to mention. Both polls show Green support impressive and SOLID, which suggests no erosion due to the May/Dion pact.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think the Tory drop is directly related to 8 dead soldiers coming back from Afghanistan. I don't think there have been any other issues that have piqued the public interest in the last week, including the environment.

Radical Centrist said...

There was a Leger Marketing poll in Le Devoir (april 21) that has the Cons tied with the Bloc in Quebec, both at 34%.