The survey says the Conservatives have 38 per cent support, up two points from the election; the Liberals are up one point to 31 per cent; the NDP is down three points to 14 per cent; the Bloc Quebecois dropped three points to eight per cent, and the Green party is up three points to eight per cent.
For context, last week's Ipsos numbers:
The survey said support for the Tories was up three points to 39%, while support for the Liberals dropped three points to 29%. The NDP climbed two points to 16%, the Bloc Québécois edged up to 9% from eight and the Green party slipped to 7% from eight.
Not much movement, although the Liberals tick upward, while the NDP falls slightly.
The regional numbers are suspicious, as I've brought up before, particularly British Columbia:
Across Canada, Conservative support declined in every region except British Columbia, where it rose 17 points to 47 per cent. It dropped eight points to 62 per cent in Alberta, six points to 22 per cent in Atlantic Canada, three points in Quebec, two points in Ontario and two points to 46 per cent in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
The Liberal numbers were up five points in Ontario and four points Quebec.
Grit support declined six points in B.C. to 28 per cent, four points in Alberta to 10 per cent and two points in Atlantic Canada to 44 per cent.
The Liberals remained flat in Saskatchewan and Manitoba at 22 per cent
Support for the NDP fluctuated mildly in most regions, while the Green party got its largest bump in Alberta, up seven points to 15 per cent.
The margin of error in regional breakouts ranges from a high of 12 percentage points in Manitoba and Saskatchewan to a low of five percentage points in Ontario.
Someone please explain to me how Tory fortunes rose 17% in British Columbia in a week? Did I miss the announcement that all British Columbians would receive a $1000 tax rebate effectively immediately? Last week Ipsos had the Conservatives down 9 in British Columbia, maybe they should just stop releasing the regionals with high MOE, because it's just useless information.
Ipso concludes the Afghanistan mess hasn't cost the Conservatives:
Bricker said a lack of significant movement in this week’s national numbers from last week’s results suggests the political uproar in Ottawa over what and when the Conservative government knew about the alleged torture of prisoners of war in Afghanistan is not resonating with most Canadians.
I disagree, this issue really boiled over on Thursday(poll ended) and most of the punditry agrees there will be a cost. Coupled with the pale green plan and this is one of the worst weeks I can remember for the Conservatives. It will be interesting to see if subsequent polls show further erosion.