Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Statistically Tied

This is the first poll in awhile that shows a statistical dead heat:
A new poll suggests the gap between the Conservatives and Liberals has narrowed to three percentage points, another signal that a spring federal election may be on hold after all.

Tory support at 34 per cent nationally, the Liberals polled 31 per cent nationally, while the NDP got 15 per cent, the Green party 11, and the Bloc Quebecois, seven...

The situation is especially intriguing in Quebec, where the Bloc hit a new low of 29 per cent, and the upstart Greens tracked 13 per cent.
The Liberals led the Tories 23-20 in the province, while the NDP trailed with 10 per cent support.

The last Decima Poll had the gap at 35% to 31%, so not much has changed, except to say a majority looks less and less likely.

I find the Greens with 13% in Quebec intriguing, ahead of the NDP. That fact could be important in the aftermath of the May/Dion agreement, lending Dion further environmental credibility with Quebecers. Also noteworthy, Decima still puts the Liberals ahead of the Tories in Quebec, which differs from other recent findings.

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

For what it's worth, I think all 3 major parties in Quebec are 10 points below where they'd like to be.

They're all down, really.

I bet they'll all be up from this come e-day

Steve V said...

anon

If the three parties stay bunched up, then the soft portion of the Green vote could be extremely important. Also, Dion may be able to make the federalist case, because that core support could be enough in a tight field.

bigcitylib said...

Interesting when you compare this to the SES "what would happen if the Bloc disappeared?" poll, which also came out today.

Also, weren't the Tories at 39 in the last Decima?

bigcitylib said...

And also also, this was done mostly after the Dion/May teamup, so it doesn't look like its hurt them much.

Steve V said...

bcl

The last Decima poll.

That SES poll is interesting, it would seem to point to a Liberal ceiling in Quebec.

Steve V said...

The previous Decima poll, had the following in Quebec:

"In Quebec, the Tories finished ahead of the Liberals for the first time in five months with 25 per cent support. The Liberals were at 20 per cent"

Now 23-20 for the Libs, which is somewhat significant. I guess the latest ad campaign against Dion wasn't well received.

knb said...

Speaking of which, I read that Dion might be running ads this week.

Steve V said...

Hi knb

I heard that too, and apparently they will be positive. I know resources are scarce, but I think it's a good idea for Dion to counter all the negative stuff now, before it gels. Canadians don't really know Dion yet, so there is plenty of opportunity for shaping.

Dana said...

Now where was I recently reading some dipper going on and bloody on about NDP strength in Quebec?

Steve V said...

I'm not sure, but I do remember hearing that a few local Quebec NDP supporters approached the Green Party about some co-ordination in the province, but the Greens turned them down, because it would look weak co-operating with a 5TH place party, that has no representation in parliament. I support that logic.

joe said...

This poll is just "sleeper numbers". In other words these are the natural levels of voter support when parliment is not sitting or an election underway. The conservatives are a bit higher than their natural level because they are in power. As soon as things start up again watch the conservatives move back toward 40% the liberals to near 25% and the rest below 15%.

Steve V said...

joe

Huh?

knb said...

joe, if your great leader has not made gains by now, I would not hold my breath if I were you.

His theory seems to be, "the more Canadians see me, the more they'll warm to me." That hasn't been the case.

Now that said, I'm sure the man has something up his sleeve, but I think he's not in a good place right now.

I just heard that he has pulled the plug on the war room. I guess he follows the polls afterall.

Steve V said...

knb

"I just heard that he has pulled the plug on the war room. I guess he follows the polls afterall."

Isn't that hilarious, the guy who says polls have no bearing on his thinking.

And, the media pundit meme is starting to change, if today was any indication. Lots of talk of Canadians not "warming" to Harper, and the corresponding "people don't know Dion yet". The real story in all these polls, what else can this man do to get his numbers out of neutral? Fiscal conservatives should be afraid.

Anonymous said...

I've said it before - whenever Harper looks like he's in majority territory - the polls go down.

Obviously, Canadians aren't comfortable with him at this point enough to give him a majority.

Interesting to see how Quebec goes when their army contingent goes to Afghanistan - especially if there are casualties. I think Harper/Hillier/O'Connor have tried to delay this as much as possible. Originally they were to go in the spring and it has been moved to the summer.

I think Harper WAS anticipating an election and didn't want the Quebec contingent over in Afghanistan during an election.

Steve V said...

anon

That is a great point on Afghanistan. Harper's window just closed, because he knows there will be casualties in the summer and winter, if history is the guide. Harper's fixation with Quebec clearly puts the regiment into the equation.

knb said...

The real story in all these polls, what else can this man do to get his numbers out of neutral?

Indeed, though I must say it makes me a little nervous too.

I mean if you think about it, they broke promises, spent like crazy on trivial things and threw the dirtiest tricks and lines conceivable at Dion and the Lib's. So what is to come?

A few things make me uneasy. The RCMP thing, meaning that they are holding off on a thorough investigation, the appointment of Mr. Paille re' the polling and of course the infamous blowhard Baird. Who knows what he is going to come out with? He's used the term carbon tax, as often as he can fit it into a sentence, re' the Lib's.

Well with all that doom and gloom, :), overall, Harper has thus far failed to connect with "the people" and that's okay by me.

To your other point, that being media, it's true what you say, but I find that sickening. The media is guided by the polls too, taking the angle that is safest and bolstered by polls. I wish more of them had listened to June.

knb said...

Anon - Originally they were to go in the spring and it has been moved to the summer.

I knew I'd seen that somewhere. Do you have a link?

Steve V said...

"The media is guided by the polls too"

That's might be the biggest reason why polls are important, they actually influence the information we receive. The media is reactionary, despite the protests. We should pull out some old editorials about Dion in the summer and compare them with the harpoons we regularly see now.