The Decima Research poll, released today to The Canadian Press, put Tory support nationally at a mere 30 per cent, compared with 29 for the Liberals, 18 for the NDP, 11 per cent for the Green party and eight per cent for the Bloc Quebecois.
But the pollster added: “This isn’t a story about how well the Liberals are doing. It’s really a story about the Conservatives back to the range they were in before they did the advertising and before they had the budget. It’s also a story that the Liberals aren’t benefiting from that sag in Conservative support. The NDP is.”
If there was good news for any political party in the poll, it was for the New Democrats.
Over the last six weeks of Decima surveys, NDP support on average is up six percentage points in Ontario, five points in B.C. and four in Quebec.
There is no way to spin these result for Harper, except to use the word devastating. An aggressive ad campaign, a feel good budget, and the numbers actually fade in the aftermath. I might be over-analyzing here, but I have to wonder if Tory internal polling shows the same fade, which might explain this sudden flip flop on their environmental approach. I had the sense that Baird was delaying the release of his environmental plan in the last weeks, possibly to re-tool and make it more attractive. I can't logically explain the apparent epiphany, where the contradictions are so profound, so it does seem reasonable that the Conservative brain trust concluded they needed more to turn around their fortunes. As an aside, CTV is reporting they will release a poll tonight, which also shows little in the way of good news for Harper.
Why are the NDP rebounding? Im not sure I buy the Conservative votes moving to the NDP argument. It could be more that some soft Conservative support has moved to the Liberals, while concurrently some soft Liberal support has moved to the NDP, which leaves the Tories the loser, the Liberals stagnant and the NDP the benefactor. Having said that, I do remember someone who posted the daily SES numbers last election, wherein the graph showed a definite co-relation between NDP and Conservative support, one down, the other up, in tandem. Of the three parties, it would seem the NDP has benefited from little negative coverage, while the Liberals have been hit hard in the media with the Dion/May angle and the Conservatives with various issues. Laying low might be the real story for the NDP here. Whatever the reasoning, these numbers, should give NDP supporters some encouragement, it's now a consistent upward trend.