Friday, June 05, 2009

Conservatives Hit New Low In Quebec

The first time any pollster has given the Conservatives 8% in Quebec, running LAST in the province. The number might be on the low side of reality, but it shows just how far the Conservatives have fallen. Ipsos puts the Liberals back ahead nationally:
Liberals 36% (33%)
Conservatives 33% (35%)
NDP 12% (14%)
Greens 9% (8%)

Ontario volatility explains the change, and it's noteworthy that two polls ago, Ipsos had the exact same national spread as they do now. In the last Ipsos poll, the Conservatives appeared to rebound in Ontario, this latest one puts the Liberals back with a solid lead. When the last Ipsos poll showed a swing, I posited that the Dhalla controversy might have hurt the Liberals (something which EKOS seemed to confirm in their three week poll). The latest numbers revert back to the trend prior to that rough week, a return to real issues seems to help the Liberals:
Liberals 41% (37%)
Conservatives 34% (39%)
NDP 14% (12%)

Ipsos shows the Liberals with a healthy lead in Atlantic Canada, a positive trend in the Prairies. Ipsos gives the Conservatives a wide margin in British Columbia.

This is clearly a blip, but Ipsos pegs the Greens third in Quebec:
Bloc 38%
Liberals 37%
Greens 10%
NDP 8%
Conservatives 8%

The Liberals numbers keep edging up in Quebec. Tonight, I read a pile on piece, with the Bloc, Cons and NDP all going after the Liberals in Quebec (first they ignore you, then they...). Two recent polls have put the Conservatives at 9%, but this is the first 8%. I would say "dead to Quebec" is probably around 12-14%.

The big question moving forward is whether Ontario really firms up for anyone. The Liberals are generally ahead, their top end numbers hit for periods suggests real big pickup possibilities, but that's a fluid argument.

Another poll out tomorrow apparently...


Scott Tribe said...

I think its fair to say the negative ads haven't exactly produced what the Cons wanted.

RuralSandi said...

I heard that a Nanos poll will be out tomorrow and Tim Smarmy Powers was smug saying the Nanos polls will be interesting.

How does Powers know what the Nanos poll will be?

RuralSandi said...

Steve V - check out James Curran - Progressive Bloggers - he has the Nanos numbers.

John said...

Con donors must not be too happy of that $5.5 million of the money they shelled out has been spent on ads that had zero effect.

I'm sure Taylor and Janke will be out with another warning soon about how Liberals "should beware" of forcing an election.

But on the downside I really don't like how these polls are framing the "do you want an election?" frame.

Quite honestly I'm absolutely shocked that 30% of people think an election solely on EI (according to Nanos) is necessary, that's far higher than anyone would have predicted, but the polls asking these EI election questions miss two things:

1) It's RIDICULOUS to assume EI is the only reason Liberals would pull the plug and ALL the polling companies have only been asking the question "do you think an election based on EI is warranted"?

2) No one EVER says they want an election (or so I thought apparently 30-35% of people are saying they want one which is a bit surprising considering how recent the last one was).

The better question to ask if "if there is an election this summer would that change how you just told us how you'd vote?"
And then they should break down how many supporters of each party would change their vote and to whom.

Number 2 is the ONLY one that would matter to Liberals. Hopefully they are doing their own polling on that.

If a given poll gives them 37% and hardly anyone says they'd change their vote as a result of a summer election, then I say definitely go because our numbers are likely to rise even further in a campaign that people would quickly discover is about a lot more than EI.

Steve V said...

Saw them Sandi :)


Agreed on these EI questions. A tad misleading to suggest it's just one issue that would force an election. Maybe the trigger, but not the entire argument for a non-confidence.

RuralSandi said...

EI only secondary to me. It's what Harper's doing to our Canadian instutions (or trying to do), his attitude about Canadians abroad, his defiance of the courts, his selling off Canadian assets and we could go on and on.

People just do't pay attention. I think they should be forced to be made aware of what Harper is actually doing.

You know, a really good and honest pollster should be asking those questions.

Steve V said...

One thing to keep in mind, while support is particularly low, it's always the minority want. Harper orchestrated an election out of NOTHING, and it was forgotten after two days on the election trail. I wouldn't necessarily let these type of findings dissuade, because in the end, the issue will likely disappear moving forward.