Thursday, June 11, 2009

Liberals Lead On "Issues"

The new extensive EKOS poll has plenty of good news for the Liberals, as they widen their lead. What's also interesting, the Liberals now lead the Conservatives by a healthy margins on "issue" based questions.

Nationally, EKOS gives the Liberals a 5% advantage, up from the narrow 1% edge we saw in the last EKOS offering. Pretty much in line with others, although EKOS notes the gap soared to 8% after the Raitt fiasco.

Regionally, while Ontario remains fluid there seems to be a new volatility range. A couple of weeks ago, we saw several firms that showed a narrowing, the Liberal lead shrinking, although ahead. Prior to that, we had seen double digit gaps, the Liberals in the 40's. Now, a few polls are showing a return to the wide gap, which suggests that the volatility is a question of size of lead now, rather than the previous back and forth we've seen in previous years. EKOS has the Liberals at 43%, Conservatives 32% and the NDP still at a concerning 15%. This type of gap, coupled with a lack of vote splitting, as we've seen elsewhere recently, translates into a large swing in seat totals.

EKOS maintains the dynamic in Quebec, Liberals and Bloc neck and neck, both up slightly from the last poll, Conservatives trending down.

A huge advantage for the Liberals in Atlantic Canada, over both the Conservatives and NDP. Given the size of this poll, the margin of error is relatively low for this reason, so the numbers are noteworthy. Liberals 43%, Conservatives 26%, NDP 24%.

Interestingly, EKOS again shows a neck and neck race in British Columbia. The last EKOS polls showed a dead heat, and this is replicated with this latest offering. Conservatives 31%, Liberals 30%, NDP 25%. My friends in British Columbia tell me to be cautious, but positive signs indeed.

While the numbers are good across the board for the Liberals, what is particularly relevant with this poll, the issue orientated numbers. Canadians are asked to comment on importance of issues and who is best able to deal with them. The overall score on issues gives the Liberals a substantial lead:
Which party is best able to deal with these issues, overall score?

Libs 38%
Cons 29%
NDP 17%

Of particular importance, on the question of jobs and unemployment, the Liberals lead 41% to 31%. That suggests real erosion on the last remaining "strong suit" for the Conservatives, managing the economy. We also see the two parties basically tied on the question of who is best able to deal with the deficit.


Steve V said...

Eric does the numbers for this poll and finds the Liberals would receive 138 seats, Cons 101, NDP 20.

Jon Pertwee said...

What's an eletion? Come to think of it, what exactly is a self-erected hill?

Anonymous said...

I think Iggy will vote no confidence just in time to save his employ for the Fall Semester at Harvard. We have a real convention and elect a young Trudeau.

Raphael Alexander said...

I have an obvious question:

What issues? What issues have the Liberals forwarded of any relevance whatsoever? Other than Lisa Raitt, employment insurance, and the Tamil Tigers, what have the Liberals done on issues?


Steve V said...


I have an obvious answer, why would I care to play this game with a hack like yourself? Don't you have another turd to pen at NP?

Raphael Alexander said...

I didn't realize we were on such formal terms with one another there Steve.

Steve V said...

Why not just do away with the pretense. :)

Why don't you ask yourself what Harper stands for, the guy has abandoned every single principle he ran on. Quite a shining moment today, when Mr. Accountability conducted his staged town hall, lest he actually interact with them Tim Horton's folk.

Raphael Alexander said...

You know what, Steve, the funny thing is that I don't disagree with you.

I just think it's funny to say the Liberals lead on issues. As I say, what issues?

Both parties don't seem to really know what they stand for.

Steve V said...


Tell it to Canadians then, because it's their misconception.

This poll finds the Liberals leading on general questions, like who is best to manage our social safety net, the environment, health care. It's a general sense that they're more sympathetic, partly because of the point of reference which has sort of brought a rethought on past performance. I mean, even I thought the Liberals were a disaster on the environment, but they look like Gore compared to what we've seen since. Does that make sense?

From what we hear, the platform is basically in the can, whether it's released or not another matter. People can slag Ignatieff, but he's always been a man of substance, I don't expect it to change now.