Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Status Quo

A new Strategic Counsel poll, which is essentially the same as their last sample:
Liberals: 34 per cent (-1)
Conservatives: 30 per cent (no change)
NDP: 16 per cent (no change)
Greens: 11 per cent (no change)
Bloc Quebecois: 9 per cent (no change)

Another narrow Liberal lead, that looks more attractive once you drill down into the regionals. A solid lead in Ontario, and a worrying number for the NDP:
Libs 44%
Cons 35%
Greens 11%
NDP 10%

Both the main parties are up slightly, the NDP have dropped 5%, now polling fourth behind the Greens. I'm not sure I buy the fourth place percentage, but it's still a bad number for the NDP, who continually poll well below their 2008 totals. All the pollsters now seem to give the Liberals a lead, within the same range, which could be even more pronounced if potential vote splitting wanes.

In Quebec, the familar storyline, Grits and Bloc jockeying for first, Conservatives poised to lose virtually everything:
Bloc 37%
Libs 35%
Greens 11%
Cons 9%
NDP 8%

Another single digit finding for the Conservatives, another poor showing for the NDP, Quebec increasingly looks like a two horse race. Donolo says the "Quebec numbers are now solid".

The Conservatives still maintain a healthy lead in the west, the NDP rebounding somewhat. What is interesting, the Conservatives stand at 41%, which is 12% lower than the 2008 election.


Karen said...

Re you last point. While I don't believe that allegiences are shifting, numbers could be due to general discontent.

Steve V said...

I'm not so sure that's a positive development, from our point of view :) I can hear the howls from the "lying in wait" crowd as we speak. See, see!!

Éric said...

Darn it, I just did a long analysis of the polling situation in British Columbia. That was my post for today!


Steve V said...

SC doesn't have BC only numbers, so you're good.

Éric said...

I try to limit myself to one post per day. I have my own time constraints and I like to give each of my posts the most "air time" as possible.

Updating the projection takes awhile, so I'll probably leave this until tomorrow.

Steve V said...

Good read on B.C. A possible 12 seats for the Liberals is a dream scenario. Not counting on it, but we have room to grow for sure.

Éric said...

I've run through the numbers, and there is no change in the long-term projection, though the Tories have dropped a tenth of a point (there is now more than half a point separating the two parties nationally).

The short-term projection is bump to 127 seats for the Grits, however. I'll probably update with the new charts tomorrow.

Tootrusting said...

If us Liberals have finally got our act together, a big IF, With the kind of week the Cons are having the, non stimulus package , Raitt and Baird.
The next set of polls could finally show a decisive lead, hopefully we capitalize on it this time.
Such a lead if it materializes would probably make an election less likely as Jack would be left with no choice but to support Harper.
That would be fun to watch.

Tof KW said...

"Such a lead if it materializes would probably make an election less likely as Jack would be left with no choice but to support Harper.
That would be fun to watch."

Indeed. Such scenarios result in big Liberal victories by minimizing vote splitting in the next election.