32 per cent of decided voters (+1) would cast a ballot for the governing Conservatives, while 31 per cent (-2) would support the opposition Liberals. The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 18 per cent (+1), followed by the Bloc Québécois with 11 per cent (+2), and the Green Party with seven per cent (=).
Conservatives up 1%, Liberals down 2%, NDP up 1%, Greens unchanged. This is the first time the Liberals have scored a low of 31% since March. The NDP are also back to their 2008 total, with some encouraging signs in Ontario.
The regionals show a pretty steep drop for the Liberals since the last AR poll (past results in brackets):
Cons 37% (36%)
Libs 35% (43%)
NDP 20% (14%)
Greens 8% (5%)
Interesting that the Conservatives haven't really benefited from the Liberal fall, the support is bleeding to the NDP and Greens. For months now, we've seen a back and forth between the two principle parties, with the NDP pretty much relegated to worrying status. This poll is the first to show positive news for the NDP. It will be noteworthy to watch if this is a one off suggestion or future polling confirms this shift.
AR also shows a bit of a drop off for the Liberals in Quebec, the Bloc now with a sizeable advantage. It's valid to wonder if the Bloc assault is having an impact:
Bloc 42% (36%)
Libs 29% (33%)
Cons 13% (10%)
NDP 8% (17%)
NDP supporters tend to cherry pick any poll that show Quebec momentum, while curiously ignoring the far more available offerings that show no such thing. I averaged out all the latest polls from each organization, and found the NDP slightly below their 2008 total. That included the past AR result of 17%, so the average has lowered further (anyways, I'm sure the Ontario numbers will suffice this time). As for the Liberals, once again we should wait and see if a true trend develops. That said, this is the first large gap we've seen from anyone for some time, so worth watching.
In terms of leadership scores, the pollster notes that Ignatieff has "negative momentum". While this is the first time we've seen Ignatieff in the "red"- prior he was the only leader to score a positive score- the numbers aren't that bad either:
Momentum Scores: Ignatieff -10, May -10, Duceppe -15, Layton -17, Harper -28
Ignatieff is still relatively strong, compared with everyone else. However, a couple possible warning signs, namely on the question of inspiring confidence, where Ignatieff dropped considerably. Ignatieff also dropped on the question of strong and decisive leadership. Harper expands a fairly large edge on the economy.
All in all, it's hard to draw any concrete conclusions. I do believe however, that we are starting to see a Liberal plateauing, furthering my view that the "honeymoon" phase is over and Liberal strategists should recognize and react proactively to this fact.