Not a huge change from the last NANOS poll, a 3.8% national gap is now 5.4%, but the trend continues. NANOS also shows a new pollster high water mark for the Liberals in Quebec, now ahead of the Bloc:
The Liberals have a solid lead in Ontario, the gap comparable to other findings:
The last NANOS poll only showed a 4% gap, now 8%. You can make a timid argument that Ontario is trending back to the Liberals, although the requisite caution is in order.
NANOS has the Liberals up everywhere, with the exception of the "west". That said, it's also encouraging to see polling in the 30's for this region, because it suggests some strength outside of Alberta and Sask.
NANOS also asks voters what they think about a summer election. In a shocking finding, we see very little support for going to the polls. Whether the Liberals should heed the overwhelming sentiment against an election call is a debatable point.
Given the regional breakdowns and national gap, these type of numbers would translate into a solid Liberal minority. As the post attack ad polls come in, Conservatives are reduced to the argument that you must wait a few months before drawing any conclusions. Personally, while I understand that these ads can have a cumulative effect over time, it's a pretty weak retort at this point. Fact is, when you unleash the largest non-election advertising buy in history, on par with a full election expenditure, one would expect to see some evidence by now. The "you just wait" argument looks more wishful thinking than anything.