Friday, April 22, 2011

Depends

With the apparent NDP "surge" the kneejerk reaction seemed to be how this was exclusively bad news for the Liberals. Particularly, I noted a certain glee coming from Conservative sources, but as I stated yesterday, the impact isn't entirely clear. There is a very plausible scenario, wherein a strengthened NDP, at the expense of the Bloc, creates a bigger threat to Conservative fortunes. Of note, EKOS yesterday gave the Liberals 82 seats, the NDP 60, translating to bigger slice combined than that of the Conservatives. Coalition talk, the "separatist" angle the greatest irritant, Conservatives should rightfully worry that they'll lose their chief FEAR card, legitimacy an emerging equation. In addition, with support on the rise elsewhere, there is also the prospect of the NDP taking seats away from the Conservatives. Don't agree with the possibilities posited, tell the Conservative war room:




Speaks volumes about what might really be going on here!

26 comments:

Jim said...

I like Jack a lot, but my fear is that we are being manipulated into splitting the vote by these pollsters. Numbers seem to have magically shifted overnight and there's no reason I can see that seems to explain it.

The media of course is lapping it up and I've seen known Conservative trolls on Twitter and forums encouraging people to vote for Jack.

Are we being duped in order to hand Harper a majority?

The main effect of these polls will be to project onto Ignatieff the "Dion Effect" and severely hurt his campaign. Lots of normally Liberal voters didn't vote for Dion in 2008 due to his perceived weakness.

Disaffected Liberals disgusted with Ignatieff and his sudden plunge into 3rd place might stay home or vote for the other parties splitting the vote enough to cause narrow defeats in swing ridings.

Centrist fence-sitters who may have voted Liberal or Progressive Conservative in the past and disenfranchised Conservative voters displeased with Harper probably make up a decent chunk of the electorate.

Those individuals could be convinced to vote for the Liberals as it's not a great deal of shift in the political spectrum to do so.
As long as the Liberals were doing decently in the polls, they might eventually make up their minds to throw support behind Ignatieff as a reasonable alternative to more Harper rule.

However, the idea of the NDP becoming the government or getting the deciding say in a coalition scenario might galvanize this block of voters to make a choice between Harper and their fear of the NDP's brand of governance. I've already seen a Conservative ad trying to play on this fear. I'm worried they will be driven into voting for Harper.

What are your thoughts?

Steve V said...

"but my fear is that we are being manipulated into splitting the vote by these pollsters."

That isn't happening.

Jerry Prager said...

I can see Iggy laying down two 30 minute television stories of what a guy who was away from Parliament more than any other politician was doing since Prorogue, from footage of him being challenged by Democracy Advocates at the forums he held in committee rooms and his responses, to the Ideas Conference, to meetings across the country with however thousands of Canadians he has met over those months, to the rapid fire question and answer pool of responses the Liberals have to draw on.
This election is not over yet. Keep resources focus on Harper, let the Bloc, the NDP and Harper have it with one another for the weekend, week.

Jim said...

RE ""but my fear is that we are being manipulated into splitting the vote by these pollsters."

That isn't happening."

I hope you're right and I'm just being paranoid.

Rotterdam said...

This NDP surge is not good for the Liberals.
It is good for Harper. His goal all along was to destroy the Liberal party. Have Canada a basic two party system, similar to Britain. Conservatives owning the center right, while NDP owning the left.

Steve V said...

Rott

That comment shows why you really are just a useless conbot sheep. Why are you running ads, BLOWING money attacking Layton if it's good for you?

Jerry Prager said...

Think of this as a high seas movie and next week is the climax battle scene in which The Liberal requires steady nerves and great sailing to drive between the other three parties while The Harper has to stop from escaping into majority waters, to turn fire on The Bloc and The NDP. With all three turning their guns on one another, because they think that The Liberal is foundering, it's time to strap yourself to the wheel pilot, because The Liberal has a window of opportunity to sail right through their fight, and into minority waters.

Jerry Prager said...

Bob Rae said there would be days like these.

Jerry Prager said...

Quebec may have found a way to sit at the table with Liberals, if it is only in a minority situation, they know that Harper's western hegemony can only be defeated through federal minority parliament, and the Bloc is now in the way of achieving that.

Steve V said...

The last thing the Cons want is a two party system. If the NDP is solely bad for Libs, then I would expect Con ads praising Jack Layton as a great Canadian. Nope, their internals are showing a threat to THEIR seats as well, very, very telling. IF the Libs can hold in Ontario, then all bets are off.

Omar said...

"Disaffected Liberals disgusted with Ignatieff"..

That isn't happening either. I mean, Ignatieff is certainly not the second coming of PET, but I don't believe disaffected Liberals are at the point of being "disgusted" with him.

Gayle said...

I admit the ad is clever. The CPC attack Layton on a point that is not likely to give any benefit to the liberals.

But it absolutely signals their concern with the NDP.

Gayle said...

"I don't believe disaffected Liberals are at the point of being "disgusted" with him."

Neither do I.

Frankly I am not sure there is anything the liberals could have done differently. The fact is people ARE tired of the same old same old. Maybe people are parking with the NDP at the moment, but I still am not sure that will translate into votes and seats.

Dame said...

The only disgust for me Layton selling of sweet nothings...
he is the best hope for Harper..but i still think people will realise his nothingness at the voting time..
same goes for Ms May...

Steve V said...

The Greens are a non factor this election, I see little chance now that they retain their 08 totals, and that could be a small factor as well.

Kirk said...

"Disaffected Liberals disgusted with Ignatieff and his sudden plunge into 3rd place might stay home..."

Quite possible but it also might give them another reason to get out and vote.

A "disaffected Liberal" can always vote Liberal next election but if he/she lets the party slide into oblivion this election then he/she won't have that option in any meaningful way in the future.

Steve V said...

I have to agree, I get no sense of disaffected Libs, at least nothing beyond the normal malcontents. On the ground turnout has frankly been astounding, if we had no polls to guide our perceptions, I bet people would think we were winning this bloody thing, based on "buzz".

Gene Rayburn said...

Someone want totell Rotterdam that the UK has three political parties. Or should we leave him in his delusion?

Rick Barnes said...

``The last thing the Cons want is a two party system. If the NDP is solely bad for Libs, then I would expect Con ads praising Jack Layton as a great Canadian. Nope, their internals are showing a threat to THEIR seats as well, very, very telling. IF the Libs can hold in Ontario, then all bets are off.``

Agreed - NDP taking from the Conservatives in BC and Saskatchewan for sure.

Steve V said...

Gene

You'd need a diamond drill bit to penetrate :)

JohnH said...

I think the NDP surge hurts both the Conservatives and Liberals but probably the Liberals more.

The NDP looks like they may cost the CPC their majority and quite possibly end Harper's career as a result (which is why you see the CPC ads now, it's majority or bust for Harper). BUT if these trends hold the CPC will get to govern bar none (but perhaps with a new CPC leader).

The only way the Liberals can take power if these trends hold if either for Ignatieff to break his promise re coalition (if the NDP have 50+ seats they will not settle for anything less) or really drive down the NDP numbers and try to get the Liberals up to 100 seats (and at least triple the NDP seat count and put pressure on them to accept an accord rather than a coalition). Ideally they should win a seat in Alberta too (or convince Linda Duncan to cross the floor).

But for option 2 (get to 100 seats which is far more ideal) this will require the Liberals to take the fight strongly to the NDP themselves. The CPC ads certainly won't be driving votes to the Liberals I think they are targeted towards winning CPC votes back out west.

The Liberals need to come out swinging starting tomorrow or Ignatieff's chances of becoming PM after this election I think are over.

Steve V said...

I agree, everyone has attacked everyone, with one exception, we haven't laid a glove on the NDP. It's time, at least in English Canada.

JohnH said...

Hopefully Ignatieff attacked Layton in the Tout Le Monde en parle segment that will air Sunday. The TV Special had better do the same (it need not come off as totally negative, just compare and contrast). Am I right that the TV Special won't air in Quebec? Tout Le Monde En Parle reaches a large enough audience as it is just was curious.

Steve V said...

When did he record that segment, on Friday? Hope not, because he was like a choirboy with the press, hadn't quite sunk in.

musing said...

It seems to me that Ignatieff and Layton are now at a crossroads. They can choose to continue sniping at each other, or they can share seats from both Harper Duceppe by telling voters to vote for the candidate in their riding with the best chance of beating the conservative. If either Ignatieff or Layton end up with enough for a minority, they can and should work with each other to keep Harper from trying to bring down whichever one is in power. Continuing to fight for the same votes will only give Harper what he wants.

Joseph Kerr said...

Jack Layton wins.

OLO or shocker PM. I already laid my $50 on it.