Sunday, April 03, 2011

New Poll

This morning's Nanos poll shows a solid Conservative lead of 11 points, with some interesting regionals:
Cons 40.7%
Libs 29.4%
NDP 16.9%
Greens 4%

Both main parties down slightly today, the Conservatives up in British Columbia, Atlantic Canada, the Liberals well down in Atlantic Canada. These regionals offset what is becoming a developing trend in Ontario:

Can't recall any recent polls pegging Liberals support quite this high, you see a fairly rapid narrowing in Ontario. I've said it a million times, there is a decent subset in Ontario that changes intention with the slightest breeze, here we see weak Conservatives support gravitating back to the Liberals. Regionals losses elsewhere mask this possible trend in Ontario, but it's a good one for the Liberals. I note here, scanning Ontario headlines, columns, newscasts, very favorable coverage for the Liberals the last few days. Also, Nanos shows virtually non-existent Green support, a vote splitting consideration, as Ontario shapes up as a clear two party race.

Another angle that has quite registered yet, Nanos shows continually erosion of Bloc support in Quebec, now down to 33.8%. The Conservatives only 8% back, followed by the Liberals stuck at 22%. My only real beef with our campaign to date, actually our strategy for two years, the apparent lack of real focus in Quebec. There are seats available for the Liberals, not to mention any sense of national momentum is forever blunted by lowly standing in Quebec. Appears calculations have been made, but it's also true the Liberals have never formed government without a decent tally in Quebec. Let's hope we see more than token appearances in Quebec, because voters are clearly looking around.

As an aside, I read an article this morning from one of the pollsters, stating that voters are just starting to tune it. An important fact to keep in mind.


Omar said...

Yeesh, Liberals down 10 pts here in Atlantica. I better lighten up on the Upper Canada rhetoric. Go Ontario!

Steve V said...

Big MOE, but maybe Harper helped by his visit? Plus, Libs have yet to tour AC.

ottlib said...

Pollsters continue calling in a particular region until they have interviewed a targeted number of respondents. Then they stop.

Last night the number they targeted for Atlantic Canada was probably not much more than 50, considering a national nightly sample of 400. It could have been less because pollsters like to focus on Central Canada.

With such a low response target non-response error increases.

Last night the Nanos interviewers could just have found more Conservative supporters willing to talk than Liberal supporters before they reached their response target. That does not denote an increase in support for the Conservatives, it just denotes that more were home on a Saturday night to answer a pollsters questions.

We saw the same thing earlier in the week when the Liberals had a big jump at the expense of the NDP. All of that came as a result of changes noted in the smaller regionals, where response targets were lower.

That is the biggest flaw in these tracking polls. They only poll 400 per night so the chance of non-reponse error skewing the estimates is quite high.

I would bet a fair amount of money that we will see the 10 point lead in Atlantic Canada evaporate over the next few days and I would bet a similar amount that we will see more of these big swings in the smaller regions as the election continues.

Steve V said...

Yes, and let's just say for future it goes without saying that AC and B.C polling comes with huge MOE caveats. That is sort of why I only confine myself normally to Ont and Que. Here though, the Ontario change is offset nationally by sizable "moves" elsewhere so that was the reason for AC reference. I still don't think we should dismiss, but you have to take quite a few findings into consideration before you jump on B.C and A.C.

ottlib said...

The Ontario estimates are interesting.

I do believe that the polls right now are artificially high for the Conservatives. They are hiding an underlying weakness that has been there for some time.

Those Ontario estimates could be the first indication of that weakness finally manifesting itself. Or not, let's wait and see.

Morakon said...

It will be interesting to see how week two goes. From all reports the Liberals have been packing them in at their stops. London and Kitchener apparently had line ups of people who couldn't get in.

Kirk said...

Wide swings in Ontario, wide swings in the Atlantic provinces, BQ dropping in Quebec all of a sudden....

I'm not a fan of polls and that doesn't mean that the situation is better for Liberals (or worse) than what the poll results say, it just means, as Diefenbaker said, "Polls are for dogs".

JohnH said...

Ok so the democratic reform stuff was nothing new, why did you raise expectations it was going to be something NEW?

The open govt stuff is excellent, so is the promise to restrict prorogation but those was proposed months ago and you said a STRONG democratic reforms package was in the pipeline not already in the past.

A weekly online question period and directing Elections Canada to explore online voting (which they are already doing it) are not massive advances. Even today at the launch, anyone could submit questions online, but the party had the ability to screen which ones got asked/answered.

So overall awesome platform, I'll stand behind it strongly, but the Libs have blown a clear opportunity to do better here. I'm curious where you got the impression there would be dramatically more here?

Steve V said...

" Even today at the launch, anyone could submit questions online, but the party had the ability to screen which ones got asked/answered."

Honestly, that crack shows you to be an absolute idiot. This guy has gone across the country, taken ALL comers, including CONSERVATIVE PLANTS in the audience, waded into any crowd, and you quibble there as though indicative. Just get lost dude, what a joke.

Bored out of my bloody skull.

JohnH said...

Goodness, I said they had the ability to, I didn't say they did, it's a flaw in the nature of online questions, you cannot answer all the ones that come in, there is not enough time, some must be selected by someone to decide which are best. I certainly agree that Ignatieff is to be comended for all the questions he's taken from all comers everywhere in the country, whether today or at totally unfiltered town halls.

I'm a bit surprised at your rant, I've been critical of ONLY two things in the platform (learning passport implementation and there not being new SUBSTANTIVE NEW democratic reforms like you said there would be), and in both cases I've said they are still amazing steps in the right direction. No other party has proposed anything comparable in these areas. And I have no other criticisms of the rest of the platform it is very very strong.

But I didn't know that this blog required deeming the platform absolutely perfect and that we weren't allowed to debate how it could be better. It was you who raised the expectations regarding NEW democratic reforms, so I felt a bit let down, I'm sorry I believe still more could be done. I would hope if I am able to comment here in the future we can still debate how the LPC can improve what it has already proposed.

I firmly believe the LPC will win this election and I firmly believe that between now and their first budget positive changes could be made to improve what's already out there. Don't you?

Steve V said...

"But I didn't know that this blog required deeming the platform absolutely perfect and that we weren't allowed to debate how it could be better."

Who said that? You're free to criticize, but at least pick a topic where you don't like an ASS. Yes, yes, I wish Ignatieff would be more open this campaign and take unscripted questions. Fine, make the point, but don't expect me to respect it. I could argue this is the most open campaign we've seen. Pick you spots, sheesh.

As for the democratic reform package, I like certain things, but I've very disappointed in other regards. Now I understand why we didn't release it by itself, there isn't enough to light a fire. I was told we were going to release, it was pulled back in January, for what I assumed were improvements. I would characterize the openness stuff as great, QP stuff thumbs up, real democratic reform, almost non-existent.

JohnH said...

And I will say my comments are no different than kady o'malley's regarding democratic reform and I don't see anyone beating up on her, so I didn't think it was conpletely out of bounds. I think you just totally misinterpreted what I was saying about the nature of online questions.

Steve V said...

Yes, a full quote with no editing is misrepresentation. Come on.

Umm, didn't I just say it was "non-existent".


Jerry Prager said...

Yes, not what I was led to believe.
Clearly relying on democrats to vote lib in order to preserve democracy itself, openness, transparency and accountability are all more substantial.

JohnH said...

Alright point taken Steve, I should have chosen my words differently as it distracted from my key point. Thank you for your honest thoughts on democratic reform (my last comment was made before I actually saw yours). So it will be up to people like us to keep the pressure on LPC to do better once they are in government. I believe they will at least listen, unlike the ideological Harper government that isn't interested in good policy, but only good politics.

Steve V said...

For the record, I also tweeted my criticism of the DR package, so this isn't about pom poms. I honestly expected more, made assumptions I shouldn't have.

Jerry Prager said...

You got it from me Steve, and I thought it came from inside unless they launched early and have details they intend on filling in, but it leaves room for greens and democrats, which may be a good thing for the country, whatever it does for the Libs.

Jerry Prager said...

If that was the case, room for democracy advocates beside Lib family and education advocacy, then there is a deal that can be made to sustain a minority government without recourse to coalition.

Steve V said...

Sorry Jerry, got what?