And please, please, no whining from my NDP friends or I'll be forced to spittle on my keyboard :) Let's keep it real.
I'm pleased to see the forecefulness. Really like this ad, every part.Though I was a bit disappointed with the Liberal reality check they posted this morning. I agree with what's said about Jack's fantasy money, esp coming from cap and trade, but implicit in there is that the Libs don't expect cap and trade to be operational nationally for about 5 years. That's likely true (which validates again why a carbon tax is better, damn shame it's been deemed toxic),but it's a basic admission on the part of the Liberals that they plan to do nothing meaningful to promote reduced GHG emmissions. Of course the same is true of the NDP (they are just holding to the cap and trade fantasy they had last election), but I guess I'm just sad to see it all pointed out in a release. I would have preferred a release that said all the same stuff but left out mention of cap and trade essentially being a joke, as it kind of makes us look unserious on the environment.I just hope one day party's get serious on the issue again.
Although reviews have been scant, I would prefer some quotes dissing the NDP deficit projections. It's pure fantasy, nobody can make the numbers jive, third party scepticism would be quite effective.
I wonder if the NDP has peaked a little too soon. For those who watched the last British election, at this point in time the third place Liberal Democrats were in a tie with the Conservatives and leading the Labour Party. On election day, they lost seats, Labour fell to second as expected and the Conservatives won. So my point is their strong polling now may not last until election day. At the same time maybe it will as in 2007 in Quebec, the ADQ nearly won and considering that is where the NDP gains mainly are. I don't think they will gain much if anything in Ontario as too many still remember the NDP in the early 90s provincially as well as here in Toronto we remember David Miller as mayor. The same can be said with BC. Likewise in Atlantic Canada, they are strongest in Nova Scotia which has an NDP government whose approval ratings are only around 1/3 now.
"I wonder if the NDP has peaked a little too soon."I'm wondering as well, if the wave has crested and we see any pullback, things can change very quickly still. I do think, however, that there now exists a decent baseline in Que that will hold, no matter.
I should add, their promises are unrealistic but that is typical of a party that doesn't think it has a realistic chance of winning. As for inexperienced candidates, this seems to be an indirect reference to the ADQ in 2007 in Quebec and the NDP in Ontario in 1990. Usually parties run experienced ones only in ridings they think they can win while usually they run inexperienced ones in ridings they feel they have no chance at winning. In both the above mentioned cases, the winning parties won in ridings few thought they had a chance at winning and thus got totally unqualified MPs. I should note the same happened federally in 1984 election in Quebec where the PCs had many inexperienced candidates from Quebec as the party went from 1 seat to 58 seats.
Steve V - I would say the NDP has a good base, but this will be much the same as the Tory base. In 2004, the Tories only got 9% in Quebec while this election they have stayed above 16% consistently, otherwise the minority of right wing Quebeckers are voting Tory. In addition it appears in the suburbs of Quebec City and the Appalaches-Chaudieres region directly south of Quebec city extending to the US border (borders New Hampshire which is the most Conservative New England state, although I think this is just a coincidence) are where the Tory strength is, but elsewhere not much of a base. The Liberals likewise have their strong spot on the West Island of Montreal which votes Liberal no matter how badly they do in Quebec. Will the NDP carve out their region or not? If they do, my guess would be the Outaois region or perhaps Central Montreal. Still my point is even with a base, it will probably be in the high teens, not the 30s they are in now, otherwise the same base the Liberals and Tories have in Quebec now.
Sorry, I should have clarified, I see their base pretty much where you mentioned, 20% perhaps. What is happening is real, so I don't see a scenario where it evaporates. I can see a wane, the Bloc back on top, but the NDP will be a factor- now whether that translates to seats seems an open question.
That is a good ad. Is it running only in English Canada or do they have a French version.
I didn't see a French version.
What does drive me nuts is Jack's claim (repeated by their candidates), that their platform is the ONLY one who's costing has been validated by an independent 3rd party.Who validated it? I've never heard an answer to that. Clearly whoever did doesn't care much for their own credibility. I'd like to know the source of this validation though because it is so hard to believe any truly respected independent minded person would back up the NDP's bogus numbers. But I've heard Jack give that answer and never any follow up as if just some guy validating is good enough to remove all questions.
As long as you spell the name correctly. It puts the idea in the voter's mind that maybe the NDP does have a chance. No whining here. I love it.
Yeah, the NDP has peaked too soon. Now Layton is going to be put in a position of defending his fantasy platform numbers. The sad part is that this plays right into Harper's hand. Layton attacking Ignatieff, Iggy attacking Layton. There's only one winner from that and it isn't Layton or Ignatieff and it certainly isn't Canada either.
It's about time people are reminded of who the NDP are ~ 10 decent parliamentarians and a boatload of poly-sci dropouts, all of whom never met a tax they didn't like. I think these should have been released the night after the French debate ended.Steve V said...I didn't see a French version.Not sure a French version is required really. The Lib's 12 Quebec seats can't much lower, Orange Wave or not. The People swinging over the the NDP are mostly Bloc supporters, so let Gilles take care of ads there. This is mainly to stop any NDP surge in Ontario or the Atlantic. In the west or Quebec, an NDP surge actually helps the Liberals.
14 seats, but I take your point. With the threat being Bloc to NDP, or even a couple Bloc to Con because of NDP, the Libs rarely enter the equation. That said, a further split could hurt us in a couple, so it's not a complete fortress
The best of this ad is that it is pointed and yet light hearted, matches the tone of their Iggy attendance ad.
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