The Ipsos-Reid poll says the Conservatives gained no immediate bounce in popularity, despite the relatively positive response to its mini-budget.
The survey, conducted Tuesday through Thursday, said the Tories have the support of 39 per cent of respondents, the same percentage as it got the previous week. The Liberals inched up one point to 28 per cent, the NDP dropped four points to 13 per cent, and the Green party slipped one point to seven per cent.
In Quebec, the scene is volatile. The Bloc Quebecois moved to 50 per cent, up 16 points from the previous survey. The Conservative remained in second spot at 22 per cent, down eight points from last week. The Liberals crept up one point to 17 per cent, while the NDP fell six points to seven per cent.
Quebec results from the same outfit, last week:
In Quebec, the Bloc leads with the support of 34% of Quebecers (9% nationally), which represents a decrease of 2 points within Quebec since last week, while the Conservatives are not far behind at 30% support (an increase of 4 points in Quebec). The Liberals have the support of just 16% of Quebecers (decrease of 3 points), and the NDP trails at 13% support (increase of 1 point). The Green Party has the support of 7% of Quebecers (unchanged).
Put away the partisan lens for a moment, you just can't explain the massive shifts in Quebec, over such a short time frame. I'm just not buying the Bloc at 50%, nor do I think the NDP fell six points in one week. There isn't one other poll of Quebecers that shows anything close to these figures, with the exception of the Liberal numbers. Last week's numbers are far more reasonable, relatively speaking, this week looks like a 19 out of 20 scenario, it just doesn't add up.
As it relates to the national numbers, Ipsos still over-states the Conservative numbers, but it is noteworthy that Conservative hasn't increased support, despite another Ipsos finding, showing widespread support for the mini-budget.